The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Zubastick
1x $0.55
Fragment
1x $1.61
Dark Polymer
1x $2.12
Blush Pour
2x $1.53
Rose Hex
3x $1.80
Arsenic Spill
2x $2.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $33.42
Electrum
6.0% $19.50
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $16.98
Glitched Paint
23.3% $16.84
Firebreathing
6.0% $12.97
Galigator
6.0% $11.12
Max Win
$33.42 (+70.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.52 (-0.6%)
Win %
23.3%
Volatility
+41.3%
Cost
$19.64
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.64
Ask Price EV $19.52 (-0.6%)
Bid Price EV $18.67 (-4.9%)
Ask Profit $-0.12 (-0.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.97 (-4.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.85 (+4.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.12
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.97
Risk
Win Probability 23.3%
Loss Probability 76.7%
Best Case $33.42 (+70.2%)
Worst Case $10.00 (-49.1%)
Volatility +41.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 24.0%
Avg Win +$13.78
Avg Loss -$4.36
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.00 (-49.1%)
Std Dev $8.10
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 150h 1m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.55 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Factory New
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Factory New
$2.12 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.84 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$2.19 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$2.91 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Arsenic Spill
—
Factory New
$3.23 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 09S //TOTAL COST $19.64 //ASK PRICE EV $19.52 //BID PRICE EV $18.67 //ASK PROFIT $-0.12 (-0.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.97 (-4.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 23.3% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +41.3% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
23.3%
$33.42
+$13.78
+70.2%
$31.48
+$11.84
+60.3%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$19.50
-$0.14
-0.7%
$17.32
-$2.32
-11.8%
$2.18
11.2%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$16.98
-$2.66
-13.6%
$16.48
-$3.16
-16.1%
$0.50
2.9%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$16.84
-$2.80
-14.3%
$16.69
-$2.95
-15.0%
$0.15
0.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$12.97
-$6.67
-34.0%
$11.57
-$8.07
-41.1%
$1.40
10.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$11.12
-$8.52
-43.4%
$10.78
-$8.86
-45.1%
$0.34
3.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$10.22
-$9.42
-47.9%
$10.09
-$9.55
-48.6%
$0.13
1.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$10.00
-$9.64
-49.1%
$10.00
-$9.64
-49.1%
$0.00
0.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.052379999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0467928,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 16.8355,
"optimistic_value": 16.79,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:17.123305Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.122,
"optimistic_value": 11.08,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:24.363927Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.224,
"optimistic_value": 10.21,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:44.403848Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 10,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 10,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:08.151209Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_66a4f23394b5c7dc2bfbcc5a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.55,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287552057552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:41.244740Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "493850543431869700",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:21.803793Z"
},
{
"price": 2.12,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "519746241188345048",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Factory New)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:06:58.428622Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:31.278898Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "523123940968767526",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:53:08.578533Z"
},
{
"price": 1.84,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "493850543431663600",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:53:08.578533Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:53:08.578533Z"
},
{
"price": 2.19,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "526501640650586777",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:53:06.506164Z"
},
{
"price": 2.91,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "497228243054789885",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:58.846388Z"
},
{
"price": 3.23,
"skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"listing_id": "525375688037842243",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:53:06.506164Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.44 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +182.7% | $7.27 +28.9% | 46.7% | +82.8% | $5.64 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 23.3% $33.42 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $16.98 Glitched Paint 23.3% $16.84 Electrum 6.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 6.0% $5.02 Galigator 6.0% $3.27 | $33.42 +128.3% | $16.98 +16.0% | 70.0% | +64.4% | $14.64 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Mulberry 23.3% $5.01 Electrum 6.0% $3.09 Glitched Paint 23.3% $2.83 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.02 Galigator 6.0% $1.98 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $1.95 | $5.01 +88.2% | $2.87 +7.9% | 52.7% | +43.8% | $2.66 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.56 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.65 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +219.5% | $6.63 +32.8% | 60.0% | +91.4% | $4.99 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.56 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.44 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +303.6% | $5.22 +32.2% | 52.0% | +106.0% | $3.95 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.44 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +254.3% | $5.91 +31.3% | 50.0% | +98.3% | $4.50 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 3.3% $5.01 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 3.3% $2.83 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $1.95 | $5.01 +147.8% | $2.57 +27.2% | 60.7% | +40.7% | $2.02 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.56 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.44 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +155.1% | $7.95 +27.2% | 53.3% | +75.4% | $6.25 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.56 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.44 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +344.1% | $4.54 +26.5% | 44.0% | +106.9% | $3.59 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.44 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +130.0% | $8.64 +24.6% | 30.0% | +68.1% | $6.93 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $5.01 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 6.7% $2.83 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $1.95 | $5.01 +131.8% | $2.65 +22.8% | 61.3% | +41.0% | $2.16 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.59 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.29 | $35.39 +130.2% | $18.42 +19.8% | 40.0% | +75.8% | $15.37 | — |