The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Fragment
2x $0.27
Zubastick
1x $0.41
Blush Pour
1x $0.36
Rose Hex
4x $0.40
Shredded
2x $0.81
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
23.3% $15.94
Glitched Paint
23.3% $6.64
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $5.64
Electrum
6.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
6.0% $2.79
Galigator
6.0% $2.19
Max Win
$15.94 (+176.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.34 (+27.2%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+87.1%
Cost
$5.77
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.77
Ask Price EV $7.34 (+27.2%)
Bid Price EV $6.69 (+16.0%)
Ask Profit $1.57 (+27.2%)
Bid Profit $0.92 (+16.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.65 (+11.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.57
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.92
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $15.94 (+176.3%)
Worst Case $1.73 (-70.0%)
Volatility +87.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$5.52
Avg Loss -$1.89
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.73 (-70.0%)
Std Dev $5.03
Avg Norm Float 0.1998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 148h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$0.81 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 29M 00S //TOTAL COST $5.77 //ASK PRICE EV $7.34 //BID PRICE EV $6.69 //ASK PROFIT $1.57 (+27.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.92 (+16.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +87.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$15.94
+$10.17
+176.3%
$14.54
+$8.77
+152.0%
$1.40
8.8%
—
WIN
23.3%
$6.64
+$0.87
+15.0%
$6.18
+$0.41
+7.1%
$0.46
6.9%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$5.64
-$0.14
-2.3%
$5.14
-$0.63
-10.9%
$0.50
8.8%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$4.11
-$1.66
-28.8%
$3.61
-$2.16
-37.4%
$0.50
12.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.79
-$2.98
-51.7%
$2.32
-$3.45
-59.8%
$0.47
16.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.19
-$3.58
-62.1%
$1.74
-$4.03
-69.8%
$0.45
20.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.79
-$3.98
-68.9%
$1.64
-$4.13
-71.6%
$0.15
8.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.73
-$4.04
-70.0%
$1.63
-$4.14
-71.8%
$0.10
5.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1498875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1338995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 6.6375,
"optimistic_value": 6.62,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:02.511106Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.11990999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.635,
"optimistic_value": 5.53,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:08:36.089597Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.7305,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:04.979710Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.19985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.7945,
"optimistic_value": 1.77,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:54:59.951532Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_66a4f23394b5c7dc2bfbcc5a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "523123888072505314",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:00.624070Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "512990789044719455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:00.624070Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "510739041953617126",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:26.479634Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293735613",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:22.750353Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:38.647707Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "506235389470532856",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:39.882720Z"
},
{
"price": 0.75,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "498354089953345099",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:39.882720Z"
},
{
"price": 0.81,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "509613089305640619",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:41.055862Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "494976390476814342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:41.055862Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "517494388633767838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:39.882720Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 23.3% $33.42 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $16.98 Glitched Paint 23.3% $16.84 Electrum 6.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 6.0% $5.02 Galigator 6.0% $3.37 | $33.42 +131.1% | $16.99 +17.5% | 70.0% | +65.1% | $14.46 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Mulberry 23.3% $5.01 Electrum 6.0% $3.09 Glitched Paint 23.3% $2.90 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.02 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $1.99 Galigator 6.0% $1.98 | $5.01 +85.4% | $2.89 +7.1% | 52.7% | +42.7% | $2.70 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.64 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +208.3% | $6.63 +28.3% | 60.0% | +88.2% | $5.17 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $6.64 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.64 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +153.0% | $8.03 +27.4% | 53.3% | +74.1% | $6.30 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.64 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.64 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +132.7% | $8.72 +27.2% | 30.0% | +68.1% | $6.85 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $6.64 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.64 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +233.5% | $5.96 +24.8% | 50.0% | +92.3% | $4.78 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.58 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.64 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +326.2% | $4.57 +22.2% | 44.0% | +102.6% | $3.74 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.64 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.64 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +267.3% | $5.27 +21.5% | 40.0% | +96.4% | $4.34 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $5.01 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 6.7% $2.90 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $1.99 | $5.01 +119.6% | $2.68 +17.4% | 45.3% | +38.4% | $2.28 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Mulberry 3.3% $33.42 Electrum 18.0% $19.50 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $16.98 Glitched Paint 3.3% $16.84 Firebreathing 18.0% $12.97 Galigator 18.0% $11.13 | $33.42 +175.0% | $13.73 +13.0% | 46.0% | +37.6% | $12.15 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.92 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.34 | $35.39 +126.1% | $18.53 +18.4% | 40.0% | +73.9% | $15.65 | — |