The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Light Box
2x $0.21
Hideout
1x $0.29
Irezumi
1x $0.31
Slag
1x $0.37
Nexus
3x $0.18
Sure Grip
1x $0.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Etch Lord
10.0% $4.43
Serpent Strike
10.0% $4.41
Block-18
10.0% $4.19
Just Smile
10.0% $3.34
Rising Sun
10.0% $3.06
Control
10.0% $2.76
Max Win
$4.43 (+63.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.18 (+16.9%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+31.0%
Cost
$2.72
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.72
Ask Price EV $3.18 (+16.9%)
Bid Price EV $2.84 (+4.3%)
Ask Profit $0.46 (+16.9%)
Bid Profit $0.12 (+4.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.34 (+12.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.46
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.12
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $4.43 (+63.0%)
Worst Case $1.90 (-30.0%)
Volatility +31.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%
Avg Win +$0.98
Avg Loss -$0.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.90 (-30.0%)
Std Dev $0.84
Avg Norm Float 0.1499
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 154h 26m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 35S //TOTAL COST $2.72 //ASK PRICE EV $3.18 //BID PRICE EV $2.84 //ASK PROFIT $0.46 (+16.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.12 (+4.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $4.43 //VOLATILITY +31.0% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$4.43
+$1.71
+63.0%
$3.77
+$1.05
+38.6%
$0.66
15.0%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$4.41
+$1.69
+62.1%
$3.69
+$0.97
+35.7%
$0.72
16.3%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$4.19
+$1.47
+54.1%
$3.88
+$1.16
+42.6%
$0.31
7.4%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$3.34
+$0.62
+22.7%
$2.85
+$0.13
+4.8%
$0.49
14.6%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$3.06
+$0.34
+12.6%
$2.88
+$0.16
+5.9%
$0.18
6.0%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$2.76
+$0.04
+1.5%
$2.44
-$0.28
-10.3%
$0.32
11.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.65
-$0.07
-2.6%
$2.60
-$0.12
-4.4%
$0.05
1.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.54
-$0.18
-6.6%
$2.16
-$0.56
-20.6%
$0.38
15.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.50
-$0.22
-8.1%
$2.24
-$0.48
-17.6%
$0.26
10.4%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.90
-$0.82
-30.0%
$1.85
-$0.87
-32.0%
$0.05
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.08544299999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.41,
"optimistic_value": 4.41,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 3.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:12.672103Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:23.045771Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11976935050000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 2.7605,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 2.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T14:23:45.741024Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1007140625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 4.434,
"optimistic_value": 4.42,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 3.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:41.101680Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 3.337,
"optimistic_value": 3.33,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:08.866053Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 3.063,
"optimistic_value": 3,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 2.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:26.151498Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1424872951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 2.5,
"optimistic_value": 2.5,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 2.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:28:36.714141Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.092767114,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.9044999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:34.770098Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.10493,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 2.54,
"optimistic_value": 2.54,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:27:42.829372Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_669078859856ec58c5d4ad43",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116741798137334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:40:00.371922Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:40:00.371922Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "499480042829003797",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:04.823090Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "492724643508413757",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:39.629924Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:36.370297Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "515242641502065985",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:39:52.367107Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "508486392208709966",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:39:52.367107Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "501730992854967701",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:39:52.367107Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "499479989897250085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:28.316634Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "514116741798139890",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:49.021219Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:5+collection-set-community-35:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Tosai 10.0% $2.54 Etch Lord 10.0% $2.37 Analog Input 10.0% $1.90 Just Smile 10.0% $1.56 | $4.41 +129.7% | $2.22 +15.6% | 40.0% | +50.4% | $1.92 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Etch Lord 10.0% $13.06 Rising Sun 10.0% $12.94 Control 10.0% $10.05 Wave Breaker 10.0% $9.41 Just Smile 10.0% $9.31 Block-18 10.0% $8.90 | $13.06 +50.1% | $9.02 +3.7% | 70.0% | +20.9% | $8.70 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 14.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.41 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Just Smile 14.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 6.0% $3.06 Control 6.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +64.8% | $3.23 +19.9% | 60.0% | +24.5% | $2.69 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Fever Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.41 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 4.0% $3.11 Control 4.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +63.7% | $3.26 +19.9% | 60.0% | +24.1% | $2.72 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Fever Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 2.0% $4.41 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 2.0% $3.19 Control 2.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +61.9% | $3.29 +19.5% | 60.0% | +23.7% | $2.75 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 12.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.41 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Just Smile 12.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 8.0% $3.07 Control 8.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +63.6% | $3.20 +18.2% | 60.0% | +24.3% | $2.71 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 12.0% $4.41 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Tosai 12.0% $2.54 Etch Lord 8.0% $2.37 Analog Input 8.0% $1.90 Just Smile 8.0% $1.56 | $4.41 +130.9% | $2.20 +15.4% | 40.0% | +51.2% | $1.91 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.41 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 Tosai 14.0% $2.54 Etch Lord 6.0% $2.37 Analog Input 6.0% $1.90 Just Smile 6.0% $1.56 | $4.41 +127.3% | $2.19 +12.7% | 40.0% | +51.0% | $1.94 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  16.7% $23.51 Searing Rage  16.7% $15.95 Jawbreaker  16.7% $14.90 Shinobu  16.7% $14.72 Olympus  16.7% $8.53 K.O. Factory  16.7% $8.22 | $23.51 +95.1% | $14.30 +18.7% | 66.7% | +42.6% | $12.05 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Inheritance  25.0% $135.61 Printstream  25.0% $127.68 Bad Trip  25.0% $74.69 Chrome Cannon  25.0% $64.35 | $135.61 +61.5% | $100.58 +19.8% | 50.0% | +37.4% | $83.96 | — |