The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Motorized
1x $0.35
Slag
1x $0.37
Dezastre
1x $0.61
Dark Sigil
1x $0.85
Irezumi
1x $1.56
Mockingbird
1x $0.38
↓
Possible Outputs
Etch Lord
10.0% $13.06
Rising Sun
10.0% $11.79
Control
10.0% $10.05
Wave Breaker
10.0% $9.41
Just Smile
10.0% $9.31
Block-18
10.0% $8.90
Max Win
$13.06 (+49.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.90 (+2.0%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+28.5%
Cost
$8.72
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $8.72
Ask Price EV $8.90 (+2.0%)
Bid Price EV $8.06 (-7.6%)
Ask Profit $0.18 (+2.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.66 (-7.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.84 (+9.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.18
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.66
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $13.06 (+49.7%)
Worst Case $4.03 (-53.8%)
Volatility +28.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$1.70
Avg Loss -$2.11
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.03 (-53.8%)
Std Dev $2.48
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 137h 32m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Ask-Side Flip · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Factory New
$1.56 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 57S //TOTAL COST $8.72 //ASK PRICE EV $8.90 //BID PRICE EV $8.06 //ASK PROFIT $0.18 (+2.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.66 (-7.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $13.06 //VOLATILITY +28.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$13.06
+$4.34
+49.7%
$12.03
+$3.31
+38.0%
$1.03
7.9%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$11.79
+$3.07
+35.3%
$11.00
+$2.28
+26.1%
$0.79
6.7%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$10.05
+$1.33
+15.3%
$8.52
-$0.20
-2.3%
$1.53
15.2%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$9.41
+$0.69
+7.9%
$8.98
+$0.26
+3.0%
$0.43
4.5%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.31
+$0.59
+6.8%
$7.84
-$0.88
-10.1%
$1.47
15.8%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$8.90
+$0.18
+2.0%
$7.77
-$0.95
-10.9%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$8.70
-$0.02
-0.2%
$7.63
-$1.09
-12.5%
$1.07
12.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$7.89
-$0.83
-9.5%
$7.43
-$1.29
-14.8%
$0.46
5.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$5.82
-$2.90
-33.3%
$5.63
-$3.09
-35.4%
$0.19
3.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.03
-$4.69
-53.8%
$3.76
-$4.96
-56.9%
$0.27
6.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.03985439999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 8.704,
"optimistic_value": 8.48,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 7.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:17:12.916885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:28:57.736585Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0558657304,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 10.051,
"optimistic_value": 9.89,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 8.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T23:11:45.509281Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0469775,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:28:58.626471Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 11.7945,
"optimistic_value": 11,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:12.246334Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06646238607999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 9.408,
"optimistic_value": 9.1,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:04.302832Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.043270691199999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.028,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:11.593982Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048943999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 5.818,
"optimistic_value": 5.72,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 5.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:24.722064Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_669078859856ec58c5d4ad43",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:07.728597Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:43.994743Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:24.397487Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:06.377160Z"
},
{
"price": 1.56,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "527627322002854856",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:26.955101Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "517494336190340410",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:32:04.864149Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "622201718411883996",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:31.936308Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "626705318055649559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:31.936308Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "501731789730351617",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:11.702488Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "500605092753353075",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:39:47.146040Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:5+collection-set-community-35:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Tosai 10.0% $2.54 Etch Lord 10.0% $2.35 Analog Input 10.0% $1.90 Just Smile 10.0% $1.56 | $4.41 +132.1% | $2.21 +16.1% | 50.0% | +51.1% | $1.90 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 10.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Just Smile 10.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 10.0% $3.19 Control 10.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +60.5% | $3.19 +15.6% | 60.0% | +23.6% | $2.76 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Fever Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.46 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.41 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.35 Rising Sun 4.0% $3.19 Control 4.0% $2.76 | $4.46 +67.0% | $3.27 +22.3% | 60.0% | +24.5% | $2.67 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.41 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Just Smile 14.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 6.0% $3.19 Control 6.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +65.6% | $3.24 +20.5% | 60.0% | +24.4% | $2.69 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Fever Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 2.0% $4.41 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 2.0% $3.07 Control 2.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +62.3% | $3.27 +20.0% | 60.0% | +23.8% | $2.73 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 12.0% $4.46 Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.41 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Just Smile 12.0% $3.35 Rising Sun 8.0% $3.19 Control 8.0% $2.76 | $4.46 +64.6% | $3.22 +18.8% | 60.0% | +24.2% | $2.71 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 12.0% $4.41 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Tosai 12.0% $2.54 Etch Lord 8.0% $2.48 Analog Input 8.0% $1.90 Just Smile 8.0% $1.56 | $4.41 +132.1% | $2.20 +15.6% | 48.0% | +51.7% | $1.90 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 6.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.41 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 Just Smile 6.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 14.0% $3.19 Control 14.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +59.1% | $3.15 +12.5% | 46.0% | +23.0% | $2.80 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  16.7% $23.51 Searing Rage  16.7% $15.95 Jawbreaker  16.7% $14.90 Shinobu  16.7% $14.72 Olympus  16.7% $8.60 K.O. Factory  16.7% $8.22 | $23.51 +98.1% | $14.32 +20.6% | 66.7% | +43.2% | $11.87 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Inheritance  25.0% $135.61 Printstream  25.0% $127.68 Bad Trip  25.0% $74.69 Chrome Cannon  25.0% $64.35 | $135.61 +64.4% | $100.58 +21.9% | 50.0% | +38.1% | $82.51 | — |