The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Motorized
1x $0.18
Slag
1x $0.19
Light Box
3x $0.21
Sure Grip
2x $0.14
Resupply
1x $0.16
Nexus
2x $0.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Serpent Strike
10.0% $4.41
Block-18
10.0% $4.19
Tosai
10.0% $2.54
Etch Lord
10.0% $2.35
Analog Input
10.0% $1.90
Just Smile
10.0% $1.56
Max Win
$4.41 (+132.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.21 (+16.1%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+59.9%
Cost
$1.90
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.90
Ask Price EV $2.21 (+16.1%)
Bid Price EV $1.97 (+3.9%)
Ask Profit $0.31 (+16.1%)
Bid Profit $0.07 (+3.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.23 (+12.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.31
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.07
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $4.41 (+132.1%)
Worst Case $1.17 (-38.4%)
Volatility +59.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$1.18
Avg Loss -$0.57
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.17 (-38.4%)
Std Dev $1.14
Avg Norm Float 0.2142
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 155h 29m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 22S //TOTAL COST $1.90 //ASK PRICE EV $2.21 //BID PRICE EV $1.97 //ASK PROFIT $0.31 (+16.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.07 (+3.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $4.41 //VOLATILITY +59.9% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$4.41
+$2.51
+132.1%
$3.69
+$1.79
+94.2%
$0.72
16.3%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$4.19
+$2.29
+120.6%
$3.88
+$1.98
+104.2%
$0.31
7.4%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.54
+$0.64
+33.7%
$2.16
+$0.26
+13.7%
$0.38
15.0%
—
WIN
10.0%
$2.35
+$0.45
+23.5%
$2.07
+$0.17
+8.9%
$0.28
11.8%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$1.90
+$0.00
+0.2%
$1.85
-$0.05
-2.6%
$0.05
2.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.56
-$0.34
-17.9%
$1.43
-$0.47
-24.7%
$0.13
8.3%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.47
-$0.43
-22.6%
$1.40
-$0.50
-26.3%
$0.07
4.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.28
-$0.62
-32.4%
$1.17
-$0.73
-38.4%
$0.11
8.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.19
-$0.71
-37.4%
$1.01
-$0.89
-46.8%
$0.18
15.1%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.17
-$0.73
-38.4%
$1.09
-$0.81
-42.6%
$0.08
6.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.122094,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.41,
"optimistic_value": 4.41,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 3.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:12.672103Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.2142,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 1.47,
"optimistic_value": 1.47,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 1.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:21:24.938683Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.171144729,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 1.19,
"optimistic_value": 1.19,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:22.866586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.143915625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.2142,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 2.347,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 2.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:34.876512Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.2142,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 1.56,
"optimistic_value": 1.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 1.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:04:39.434678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.2142,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 1.284,
"optimistic_value": 1.2,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 1.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:07.985877Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.20360759579999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 1.1704999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.16,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 1.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:06.449555Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.132559812,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.9044999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:48.600665Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 2.54,
"optimistic_value": 2.54,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:27:42.829372Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_669078859856ec58c5d4ad43",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "525374890948082251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:40:16.705226Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "496101493247435159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:35:02.484418Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116741798137334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:59.300666Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:59.300666Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:59.300666Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "499480042828718605",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:42.328813Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "506235442368696336",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:26:35.096230Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "491597893792969838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:42.328813Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "515242641502065985",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:41.279084Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "508486392208709966",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:41.279084Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:5+collection-set-community-35:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 10.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Just Smile 10.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 10.0% $3.19 Control 10.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +60.5% | $3.19 +15.6% | 60.0% | +23.6% | $2.76 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Etch Lord 10.0% $13.06 Rising Sun 10.0% $11.79 Control 10.0% $10.05 Wave Breaker 10.0% $9.41 Just Smile 10.0% $9.31 Block-18 10.0% $8.90 | $13.06 +49.7% | $8.90 +2.0% | 60.0% | +19.0% | $8.72 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Fever Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.46 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.41 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.35 Rising Sun 4.0% $3.19 Control 4.0% $2.76 | $4.46 +67.0% | $3.27 +22.3% | 60.0% | +24.5% | $2.67 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.41 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Just Smile 14.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 6.0% $3.19 Control 6.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +65.6% | $3.24 +20.5% | 60.0% | +24.4% | $2.69 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Fever Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.43 Serpent Strike 2.0% $4.41 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 2.0% $3.07 Control 2.0% $2.76 | $4.43 +62.3% | $3.27 +20.0% | 60.0% | +23.8% | $2.73 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 12.0% $4.46 Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.41 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Just Smile 12.0% $3.35 Rising Sun 8.0% $3.19 Control 8.0% $2.76 | $4.46 +64.6% | $3.22 +18.8% | 60.0% | +24.2% | $2.71 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 12.0% $4.41 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Tosai 12.0% $2.54 Etch Lord 8.0% $2.48 Analog Input 8.0% $1.90 Just Smile 8.0% $1.56 | $4.41 +132.1% | $2.20 +15.6% | 48.0% | +51.7% | $1.90 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 6.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.41 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 Just Smile 6.0% $3.34 Rising Sun 14.0% $3.19 Control 14.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +59.1% | $3.15 +12.5% | 46.0% | +23.0% | $2.80 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  16.7% $23.51 Searing Rage  16.7% $15.95 Jawbreaker  16.7% $14.90 Shinobu  16.7% $14.72 Olympus  16.7% $8.60 K.O. Factory  16.7% $8.22 | $23.51 +98.1% | $14.32 +20.6% | 66.7% | +43.2% | $11.87 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Inheritance  25.0% $135.61 Printstream  25.0% $127.68 Bad Trip  25.0% $74.69 Chrome Cannon  25.0% $64.35 | $135.61 +64.4% | $100.58 +21.9% | 50.0% | +38.1% | $82.51 | — |