The Gamma 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Dazzle
1x $0.42
Earth Mandala
1x $2.24
Warm Blooded
7x $2.27
Sky Mandala
1x $3.96
↓
Possible Outputs
Weasel
2.0% $64.11
Exothermic
45.0% $26.56
Sleeping Potion
45.0% $24.63
Triarch
2.0% $13.89
Powercore
2.0% $12.89
Directive
2.0% $9.23
Max Win
$64.11 (+135.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$25.16 (-7.6%)
Win %
2.0%
Volatility
+25.7%
Cost
$27.24
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $27.24
Ask Price EV $25.16 (-7.6%)
Bid Price EV $23.76 (-12.8%)
Ask Profit $-2.08 (-7.6%)
Bid Profit $-3.48 (-12.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.41 (+5.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.08
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.48
Risk
Win Probability 2.0%
Loss Probability 98.0%
Best Case $64.11 (+135.3%)
Worst Case $6.44 (-76.3%)
Volatility +25.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 8.0%
Avg Win +$36.87
Avg Loss -$2.87
Bottom 5% Outcome $12.89 (-52.7%)
Std Dev $7.00
Avg Norm Float 0.0695
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 9m
Oldest Output Price 140h 5m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Dazzle
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$5.15 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 03M 37S //TOTAL COST $27.24 //ASK PRICE EV $25.16 //BID PRICE EV $23.76 //ASK PROFIT $-2.08 (-7.6%) //BID PROFIT $-3.48 (-12.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 2.0% //BEST CASE $64.11 //VOLATILITY +25.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$64.11
+$36.87
+135.3%
$62.73
+$35.49
+130.3%
$1.38
2.1%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$26.56
-$0.69
-2.5%
$25.88
-$1.36
-5.0%
$0.68
2.5%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$24.63
-$2.61
-9.6%
$22.28
-$4.96
-18.2%
$2.35
9.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$13.89
-$13.35
-49.0%
$13.41
-$13.83
-50.8%
$0.48
3.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$12.89
-$14.35
-52.7%
$12.74
-$14.50
-53.2%
$0.15
1.2%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$9.23
-$18.01
-66.1%
$9.06
-$18.18
-66.7%
$0.17
1.8%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$6.44
-$20.80
-76.3%
$6.33
-$20.91
-76.8%
$0.11
1.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-gamma-2|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-gamma-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.04865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.555,
"optimistic_value": 26.45,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:32.067858Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.04865,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.12533,
"output_skin_id": "skin-02e5c0a4a714",
"realistic_value": 9.227,
"optimistic_value": 9.22,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Directive",
"conservative_value": 9.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-gamma-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Gamma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Directive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:43:03.038194Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-02e5c0a4a714.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0695,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e48389f836a",
"realistic_value": 64.108,
"optimistic_value": 63.1,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Weasel",
"conservative_value": 62.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-gamma-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Weasel (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:52:02.392821Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e48389f836a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.030580000000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-18a6943d8cc2",
"realistic_value": 6.444999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 6.34,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Petroglyph",
"conservative_value": 6.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-gamma-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T00:43:23.645278Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-18a6943d8cc2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0695,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9c61185e3e75",
"realistic_value": 12.889,
"optimistic_value": 12.77,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Powercore",
"conservative_value": 12.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-gamma-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Powercore (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:09.421363Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9c61185e3e75.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0695,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1dad3beb1452",
"realistic_value": 13.8925,
"optimistic_value": 13.77,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Triarch",
"conservative_value": 13.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-gamma-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Triarch (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:48:17.904903Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1dad3beb1452.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_65a589d882370754c4bb1b08",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-3470c859db1d",
"listing_id": "507360492257568697",
"collection_id": "collection-set-gamma-2",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Dazzle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Dazzle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3470c859db1d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:53:01.851728Z"
},
{
"price": 2.24,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "523123888072205002",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:46.119498Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472790737055183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:54.177511Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:54.177511Z"
},
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605724248646447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:54.177511Z"
},
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "518620235868493708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:54.177511Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:54.177511Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:54.177511Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "501731789729270537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:48.355690Z"
},
{
"price": 5.15,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "521997822478339278",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:54.177511Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-gamma-2:1+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma 2 Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $7.38 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.56 Petroglyph 2.0% $1.82 Weasel 2.0% $1.59 Triarch 2.0% $1.58 Powercore 2.0% $1.55 | $7.38 +60.8% | $4.63 +0.9% | 45.0% | +53.6% | $4.59 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma 2 Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.26 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $11.82 Petroglyph 6.0% $2.04 Directive 6.0% $1.98 Powercore 6.0% $1.89 Triarch 6.0% $1.83 | $13.26 +76.5% | $9.34 +24.4% | 70.0% | +60.5% | $7.51 | — |
The Gamma 2 Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $12.78 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $11.82 Petroglyph 8.0% $2.04 Directive 8.0% $1.98 Powercore 8.0% $1.89 Triarch 8.0% $1.83 | $12.78 +89.6% | $8.13 +20.7% | 60.0% | +70.9% | $6.74 | — |
The Gamma 2 Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.33 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $11.82 Petroglyph 10.0% $2.04 Directive 10.0% $1.98 Powercore 10.0% $1.89 Triarch 10.0% $1.83 | $13.33 +113.9% | $7.23 +16.0% | 50.0% | +81.5% | $6.23 | — |
The Gamma 2 Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Weasel 14.0% $64.11 Exothermic 15.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 15.0% $24.63 Triarch 14.0% $13.89 Powercore 14.0% $12.89 Directive 14.0% $9.23 | $64.11 +205.6% | $22.63 +7.9% | 44.0% | +81.6% | $20.98 | — |
The Gamma 2 Collection ×9+The Harlequin Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Weasel 18.0% $64.11 Exothermic 5.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 5.0% $24.63 Triarch 18.0% $13.89 Powercore 18.0% $12.89 Directive 18.0% $9.23 | $64.11 +204.3% | $21.75 +3.2% | 28.0% | +92.3% | $21.07 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma 2 Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Well-Worn | Party Animal  30.0% $19.29 Fuel Injector  23.3% $16.66 Syd Mead  23.3% $16.59 Airlock  23.3% $16.12 | $19.29 +16.0% | $17.31 +4.1% | 53.3% | +7.9% | $16.63 | — |