The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +31.0%Factory New -3.9%Well-Worn -8.8%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Sky Mandala

3x $0.35

Warm Blooded

3x $0.47

Earth Mandala

2x $0.48

Fraise Crane

1x $0.81

Late Night Transit

1x $0.51

↓

Possible Outputs

Exothermic

45.0% $7.31

Derailment

3.3% $7.13

Charged Up

3.3% $5.48

Whiteout

3.3% $4.17

Sleeping Potion

45.0% $2.36

Max Win

$7.31 (+35.7%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.91 (-8.8%)

Win %

51.7%

Volatility

+44.4%

Cost

$5.39

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $5.39

Ask Price EV $4.91 (-8.8%)

Bid Price EV $4.70 (-12.8%)

Ask Profit $-0.48 (-8.8%)

Bid Profit $-0.69 (-12.8%)

Liquidity Gap $0.22 (+4.0%)

Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.48

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.69

Risk

Win Probability 51.7%

Loss Probability 48.3%

Best Case $7.31 (+35.7%)

Worst Case $2.36 (-56.2%)

Volatility +44.4%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 45.0%

Avg Win +$1.79

Avg Loss -$2.90

Bottom 5% Outcome $2.36 (-56.2%)

Std Dev $2.39

Avg Norm Float 0.4467

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 30m

Oldest Output Price 20h 36m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.35 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.47 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.48 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.52 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.54 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.60 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.61 Float: HIDDEN

Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane

—

Field-Tested

$0.81 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.51 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 55S //TOTAL COST $5.39 //ASK PRICE EV $4.91 //BID PRICE EV $4.70 //ASK PROFIT $-0.48 (-8.8%) //BID PROFIT $-0.69 (-12.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 51.7% //BEST CASE $7.31 //VOLATILITY +44.4% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 9,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 1,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.31268999999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 7.3135,
      "optimistic_value": 7.24,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 7.05,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:03:08.217724Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.31268999999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.3615,
      "optimistic_value": 2.26,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:38.646800Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.31268999999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 7.1295,
      "optimistic_value": 7.07,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 6.4,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.47989799999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 4.1705000000000005,
      "optimistic_value": 4.16,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 4.1,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:04:51.813887Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.4467,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 5.481,
      "optimistic_value": 5.46,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 4.88,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:43:53.395739Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_642af1e33c3762e04304bf7b",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "493850490550207360",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:12.826284Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.47,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "520872088106943564",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:28.988837Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "511864888985363085",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:38.160374Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605889841164747",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:28.988837Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "517494336189226390",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:38.160374Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.54,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "497228137697395481",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:28.988837Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.6,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "493850438107199332",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:29.403025Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.61,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "526501587737763809",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:29.403025Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.81,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "637964245136912621",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.934757Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "503983589619599383",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:55:40.961770Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9+collection-set-train-2025:1"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Derailment 3.3% $5.85 Charged Up 3.3% $4.93 Whiteout 3.3% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.15	$9.85 +118.9%	$5.90 +31.0%	51.7%	+81.6%	$4.50	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Derailment 6.7% $5.85 Charged Up 6.7% $4.93 Whiteout 6.7% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.15	$9.85 +116.0%	$5.80 +27.1%	53.3%	+76.4%	$4.56	—
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Derailment 10.0% $5.85 Charged Up 10.0% $4.93 Whiteout 10.0% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.15	$9.85 +117.9%	$5.69 +26.0%	55.0%	+72.5%	$4.52	—
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $44.71 Exothermic 30.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Charged Up 13.3% $22.86	$64.86 +137.6%	$33.08 +21.2%	26.7%	+51.8%	$27.30	—
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.71 Exothermic 25.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $24.63 Charged Up 16.7% $22.86	$64.86 +121.5%	$34.93 +19.2%	33.3%	+52.1%	$29.29	—
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.71 Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Charged Up 20.0% $22.86	$64.86 +108.6%	$36.77 +18.3%	40.0%	+51.7%	$31.09	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 40.0% $294.44 Party Animal 20.0% $158.85	$597.10 +70.4%	$388.39 +10.8%	40.0%	+50.6%	$350.44	—