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The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Battle-Scarred +31.3%Factory New -5.4%Well-Worn -5.1%
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Sky Mandala
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
2x $0.34
Fraise Crane
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
2x $0.35
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
5x $0.48
Late Night Transit
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
1x $0.51
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
45.0% $9.85
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
3.3% $5.85
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
3.3% $4.93
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
3.3% $4.09
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
45.0% $2.15
Max Win
$9.85 (+119.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.89 (+31.3%)
Win %
51.7%
Volatility
+81.9%
Cost
$4.49
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $4.49
Ask Price EV $5.89 (+31.3%)
Bid Price EV $4.31 (-4.1%)
Ask Profit $1.40 (+31.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.18 (-4.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.59 (+35.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.40
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.18
Risk
Win Probability 51.7%
Loss Probability 48.3%
Best Case $9.85 (+119.4%)
Worst Case $2.15 (-52.2%)
Volatility +81.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 45.0%
Avg Win +$4.78
Avg Loss -$2.21
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.15 (-52.2%)
Std Dev $3.68
Avg Norm Float 0.5779
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 142h 37m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 51M 09S //TOTAL COST $4.49 //ASK PRICE EV $5.89 //BID PRICE EV $4.31 //ASK PROFIT $1.40 (+31.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.18 (-4.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 51.7% //BEST CASE $9.85 //VOLATILITY +81.9% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 9,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 1,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.40452999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 9.8505,
      "optimistic_value": 9.77,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 6.64,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:35.960617Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.45,
      "output_float": 0.40452999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.1455,
      "optimistic_value": 2.1,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 1.99,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:00:56.765868Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.40452999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 5.8545,
      "optimistic_value": 5.76,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 4.9,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:37.199726Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.603226,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 4.0925,
      "optimistic_value": 4.04,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 4,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:36.261702Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.5779,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 4.9254999999999995,
      "optimistic_value": 4.88,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 3.75,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T00:12:33.464100Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_642af1e33c3762e04304bf7b",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "503983589619270235",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:58.100466Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.35,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "492724590626378025",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:18:57.911257Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "listing_id": "501731789729082221",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:18:57.911257Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "508487189339587610",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:58:58.100466Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "518620288314051868",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:42.370524Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472790737290515",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:42.370524Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "500605889841164747",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:42.370524Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "503983589619183691",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:42.370524Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.54,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "497228137697395481",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:42.370524Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "511864888983882513",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:32.551287Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9+collection-set-train-2025:1"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
40.0% $9.85
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
6.7% $5.85
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
6.7% $4.93
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
6.7% $4.17
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.15
$9.85
+116.0%
$5.80
+27.1%
53.3%+76.4%$4.56—
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
35.0% $9.85
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
10.0% $5.85
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
10.0% $4.93
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
10.0% $4.09
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
35.0% $2.15
$9.85
+119.4%
$5.69
+26.6%
55.0%+73.1%$4.49—
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
30.0% $9.85
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
13.3% $5.85
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
13.3% $4.93
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
13.3% $4.09
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
30.0% $2.15
$9.85
+117.5%
$5.58
+23.2%
56.7%+67.6%$4.53—
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
16.7% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
16.7% $44.71
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
25.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
25.0% $24.63
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
16.7% $22.86
$64.86
+121.5%
$34.93
+19.2%
33.3%+52.1%$29.29—
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Whiteout
Tec-9 | Whiteout
20.0% $64.86
Derailment
MAC-10 | Derailment
20.0% $44.71
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
20.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
20.0% $24.63
Charged Up
Zeus x27 | Charged Up
20.0% $22.86
$64.86
+100.7%
$36.77
+13.8%
40.0%+49.8%$32.32—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified Factory New
Hellish
M4A4 | Hellish
40.0% $597.10
Latte Rush
MP9 | Latte Rush
40.0% $294.44
Party Animal
M4A1-S | Party Animal
20.0% $158.85
$597.10
+70.4%
$388.39
+10.8%
40.0%+50.6%$350.44—
FS

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