The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Earth Mandala
3x $2.30
Warm Blooded
5x $2.36
Sky Mandala
1x $3.96
Late Night Transit
1x $3.01
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
3.3% $64.86
Charged Up
3.3% $63.47
Derailment
3.3% $44.71
Exothermic
45.0% $26.79
Sleeping Potion
45.0% $24.63
Max Win
$64.86 (+115.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$28.91 (-3.9%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+33.5%
Cost
$30.09
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $30.09
Ask Price EV $28.91 (-3.9%)
Bid Price EV $27.14 (-9.8%)
Ask Profit $-1.18 (-3.9%)
Bid Profit $-2.95 (-9.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.76 (+5.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.18
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.95
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $64.86 (+115.6%)
Worst Case $24.63 (-18.1%)
Volatility +33.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$27.59
Avg Loss -$4.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $24.63 (-18.1%)
Std Dev $10.07
Avg Norm Float 0.0694
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 9m
Oldest Output Price 143h 37m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.07 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$3.84 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$4.02 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$3.01 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 10S //TOTAL COST $30.09 //ASK PRICE EV $28.91 //BID PRICE EV $27.14 //ASK PROFIT $-1.18 (-3.9%) //BID PROFIT $-2.95 (-9.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +33.5% //
Possible Outputs · 5
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
3.3%
$64.86
+$34.77
+115.6%
$61.61
+$31.52
+104.8%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
3.3%
$63.47
+$33.38
+110.9%
$58.44
+$28.35
+94.2%
$5.03
7.9%
—
WIN
3.3%
$44.71
+$14.62
+48.6%
$43.04
+$12.95
+43.0%
$1.67
3.7%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$26.79
-$3.30
-11.0%
$25.96
-$4.13
-13.7%
$0.83
3.1%
—
LOSS
45.0%
$24.63
-$5.46
-18.1%
$22.28
-$7.81
-26.0%
$2.35
9.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.04859399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.787,
"optimistic_value": 26.71,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 25.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:52:27.397267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.45,
"output_float": 0.04859399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 24.63,
"optimistic_value": 24.56,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 22.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.04859399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 44.7135,
"optimistic_value": 44.64,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 43.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:07:24.355097Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1252548,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06942,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 63.472,
"optimistic_value": 62.38,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 58.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:05:40.142681Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_642af1e33c3762e04304bf7b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "511864888985191545",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:15.962603Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:15.962603Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494388633380694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.386193Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "496102290329375051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:15.962603Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "490472625089366055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.386193Z"
},
{
"price": 3.07,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "505109323870001060",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.386193Z"
},
{
"price": 3.84,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "516368322944655998",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.386193Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "501731789729270537",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:16.221223Z"
},
{
"price": 4.02,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "526500790836642953",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.386193Z"
},
{
"price": 3.01,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "511864888984827585",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:10:00.075703Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:9+collection-set-train-2025:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 45.0% $9.85 Derailment 3.3% $5.85 Charged Up 3.3% $4.93 Whiteout 3.3% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 45.0% $2.15 | $9.85 +118.9% | $5.90 +31.0% | 51.7% | +81.6% | $4.50 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Derailment 6.7% $5.85 Charged Up 6.7% $4.93 Whiteout 6.7% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.15 | $9.85 +116.0% | $5.80 +27.1% | 53.3% | +76.4% | $4.56 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Derailment 10.0% $5.85 Charged Up 10.0% $4.93 Whiteout 10.0% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.15 | $9.85 +117.9% | $5.69 +26.0% | 55.0% | +72.5% | $4.52 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $44.71 Exothermic 30.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Charged Up 13.3% $22.86 | $64.86 +137.6% | $33.08 +21.2% | 26.7% | +51.8% | $27.30 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.71 Exothermic 25.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $24.63 Charged Up 16.7% $22.86 | $64.86 +121.5% | $34.93 +19.2% | 33.3% | +52.1% | $29.29 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.71 Exothermic 20.0% $26.79 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Charged Up 20.0% $22.86 | $64.86 +108.6% | $36.77 +18.3% | 40.0% | +51.7% | $31.09 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  40.0% $294.44 Party Animal  20.0% $158.85 | $597.10 +70.4% | $388.39 +10.8% | 40.0% | +50.6% | $350.44 | — |