The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Zubastick
2x $0.16
Shredded
3x $0.26
Red Tide
1x $0.27
Rose Hex
1x $0.31
Blush Pour
3x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
26.7% $5.01
Electrum
4.0% $3.09
Glitched Paint
26.7% $2.84
Firebreathing
4.0% $2.02
Bleeding Edge
26.7% $1.99
Galigator
4.0% $1.98
Max Win
$5.01 (+74.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.01 (+5.0%)
Win %
30.7%
Volatility
+44.8%
Cost
$2.87
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.87
Ask Price EV $3.01 (+5.0%)
Bid Price EV $2.82 (-1.8%)
Ask Profit $0.14 (+5.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.05 (-1.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.20 (+6.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.14
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.05
Risk
Win Probability 30.7%
Loss Probability 69.3%
Best Case $5.01 (+74.4%)
Worst Case $1.33 (-53.6%)
Volatility +44.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 42.7%
Avg Win +$1.89
Avg Loss -$0.63
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.35 (-52.9%)
Std Dev $1.29
Avg Norm Float 0.4497
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 146h 56m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Well-Worn
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 22S //TOTAL COST $2.87 //ASK PRICE EV $3.01 //BID PRICE EV $2.82 //ASK PROFIT $0.14 (+5.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.05 (-1.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.7% //BEST CASE $5.01 //VOLATILITY +44.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
26.7%
$5.01
+$2.14
+74.4%
$4.66
+$1.79
+62.4%
$0.35
6.9%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$3.09
+$0.22
+7.7%
$2.55
-$0.32
-11.1%
$0.54
17.5%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$2.84
-$0.03
-0.9%
$2.76
-$0.11
-3.8%
$0.08
3.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$2.02
-$0.85
-29.5%
$1.87
-$1.00
-34.8%
$0.15
7.6%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$1.99
-$0.88
-30.8%
$1.91
-$0.96
-33.4%
$0.08
3.9%
—
LOSS THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$1.98
-$0.89
-31.0%
$1.30
-$1.57
-54.7%
$0.68
34.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$1.35
-$1.52
-52.9%
$1.28
-$1.59
-55.4%
$0.07
5.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$1.33
-$1.54
-53.6%
$1.26
-$1.61
-56.1%
$0.07
5.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.3372825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 5.0065,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 4.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:33.975888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.3013057,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 2.8445,
"optimistic_value": 2.82,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 2.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:44:25.527137Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.269826,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 1.9869999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.98,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 1.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:58.159266Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.44971,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.0235,
"optimistic_value": 2.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 1.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:09:27.454296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.44971,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 1.9809999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T04:16:23.451221Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.44971,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 3.0915,
"optimistic_value": 3.06,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 2.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:14:00.395844Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.44971,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.333,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.26,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:52.502860Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.44971,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.351,
"optimistic_value": 1.33,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:39.007366Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_63db64d2b4c2bba9d706e4fa",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "508487189340890990",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:05.040127Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "529879287550965708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Well-Worn)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:05.040127Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "527627487625005080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:43:53.879779Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "524249787962174415",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:38.524622Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688037682223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:52:33.768148Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "529879287551911536",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:18.368519Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "492724590626916477",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:18.368519Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "516368488726646006",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:40.795237Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "508487189339594522",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:40.795237Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293735613",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:40.795237Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.64 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +154.3% | $8.17 +30.2% | 53.3% | +73.7% | $6.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 26.7% $33.42 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $16.98 Glitched Paint 26.7% $16.82 Electrum 4.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 4.0% $5.02 Galigator 4.0% $3.34 | $33.42 +97.0% | $18.79 +10.8% | 53.3% | +53.3% | $16.96 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Mulberry 26.7% $5.01 Glitched Paint 26.7% $2.84 Electrum 4.0% $2.61 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $1.99 Firebreathing 4.0% $1.83 Galigator 4.0% $1.63 | $5.01 +78.2% | $2.97 +5.7% | 53.3% | +43.5% | $2.81 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.64 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +211.4% | $6.76 +32.1% | 60.0% | +88.7% | $5.12 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.64 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +292.6% | $5.36 +31.9% | 52.0% | +103.2% | $4.06 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.64 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +179.7% | $7.46 +30.9% | 46.7% | +80.8% | $5.70 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.64 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +241.4% | $6.06 +29.8% | 50.0% | +94.4% | $4.67 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.64 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +342.8% | $4.65 +29.2% | 44.0% | +107.0% | $3.60 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.64 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +129.7% | $8.87 +27.8% | 60.0% | +66.2% | $6.94 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.64 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +389.0% | $3.96 +21.5% | 36.0% | +102.5% | $3.26 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 3.3% $5.01 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 3.3% $2.84 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $1.99 | $5.01 +121.5% | $2.62 +15.9% | 42.7% | +35.5% | $2.26 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Nouveau Rouge  40.0% $178.22 Crane Flight  20.0% $150.19 Deathgaze  20.0% $40.33 Kintsugi  20.0% $38.72 | $178.22 +76.6% | $117.14 +16.0% | 60.0% | +63.6% | $100.94 | — |