The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Bock Blocks
1x $1.49
Zubastick
1x $2.88
Shredded
1x $1.33
Blush Pour
5x $1.42
Rose Hex
2x $1.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
26.7% $33.42
Electrum
4.0% $19.50
Bleeding Edge
26.7% $16.98
Glitched Paint
26.7% $16.82
Firebreathing
4.0% $12.97
Galigator
4.0% $11.24
Max Win
$33.42 (+39.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$20.48 (-14.7%)
Win %
26.7%
Volatility
+33.8%
Cost
$24.00
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $24.00
Ask Price EV $20.48 (-14.7%)
Bid Price EV $19.63 (-18.2%)
Ask Profit $-3.52 (-14.7%)
Bid Profit $-4.37 (-18.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.85 (+3.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.52
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.37
Risk
Win Probability 26.7%
Loss Probability 73.3%
Best Case $33.42 (+39.2%)
Worst Case $10.00 (-58.3%)
Volatility +33.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 69.3%
Avg Win +$9.42
Avg Loss -$8.22
Bottom 5% Outcome $10.24 (-57.3%)
Std Dev $8.11
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 147h 50m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Factory New
$2.88 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.42 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.85 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$4.95 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$5.08 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 20M 23S //TOTAL COST $24.00 //ASK PRICE EV $20.48 //BID PRICE EV $19.63 //ASK PROFIT $-3.52 (-14.7%) //BID PROFIT $-4.37 (-18.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 26.7% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +33.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
26.7%
$33.42
+$9.42
+39.2%
$31.48
+$7.48
+31.2%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$19.50
-$4.50
-18.8%
$17.32
-$6.68
-27.8%
$2.18
11.2%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$16.98
-$7.02
-29.3%
$16.48
-$7.52
-31.3%
$0.50
2.9%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$16.82
-$7.18
-29.9%
$16.69
-$7.31
-30.5%
$0.13
0.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$12.97
-$11.03
-46.0%
$11.57
-$12.43
-51.8%
$1.40
10.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$11.24
-$12.77
-53.2%
$10.78
-$13.22
-55.1%
$0.46
4.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$10.24
-$13.76
-57.3%
$10.09
-$13.91
-58.0%
$0.15
1.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$10.00
-$14.00
-58.3%
$9.98
-$14.02
-58.4%
$0.02
0.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.052237500000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.046665500000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 16.818,
"optimistic_value": 16.79,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:58:46.265536Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.04179,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.235,
"optimistic_value": 11.2,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:28.939924Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.237,
"optimistic_value": 10.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": null,
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06965,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 10,
"optimistic_value": 10,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:58:53.047598Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_63db64d2b4c2bba9d706e4fa",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "503983589620254403",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:21.487323Z"
},
{
"price": 2.88,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "496102290328295663",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:44:03.075931Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "649223316125024632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:26.511348Z"
},
{
"price": 1.42,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "649222707046356376",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:31.197301Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:31.197301Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:31.197301Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488726542974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:15.980885Z"
},
{
"price": 1.85,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "512990789045646995",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:15.980885Z"
},
{
"price": 4.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "521997822479782266",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:00.808649Z"
},
{
"price": 5.08,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524062682488",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:00.808649Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.64 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +154.3% | $8.17 +30.2% | 53.3% | +73.7% | $6.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 26.7% $33.42 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $16.98 Glitched Paint 26.7% $16.82 Electrum 4.0% $7.00 Firebreathing 4.0% $5.02 Galigator 4.0% $3.34 | $33.42 +97.0% | $18.79 +10.8% | 53.3% | +53.3% | $16.96 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Mulberry 26.7% $5.01 Glitched Paint 26.7% $2.84 Electrum 4.0% $2.61 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $1.99 Firebreathing 4.0% $1.83 Galigator 4.0% $1.63 | $5.01 +78.2% | $2.97 +5.7% | 53.3% | +43.5% | $2.81 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Mulberry 26.7% $5.01 Electrum 4.0% $3.09 Glitched Paint 26.7% $2.84 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.02 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $1.99 Galigator 4.0% $1.98 | $5.01 +74.4% | $3.01 +5.0% | 30.7% | +41.7% | $2.87 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.64 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +211.4% | $6.76 +32.1% | 60.0% | +88.7% | $5.12 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.64 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +292.6% | $5.36 +31.9% | 52.0% | +103.2% | $4.06 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.64 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +179.7% | $7.46 +30.9% | 46.7% | +80.8% | $5.70 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.64 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +241.4% | $6.06 +29.8% | 50.0% | +94.4% | $4.67 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.64 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +342.8% | $4.65 +29.2% | 44.0% | +107.0% | $3.60 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.64 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +129.7% | $8.87 +27.8% | 60.0% | +66.2% | $6.94 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.64 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +389.0% | $3.96 +21.5% | 36.0% | +102.5% | $3.26 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 3.3% $5.01 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 3.3% $2.84 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $1.99 | $5.01 +121.5% | $2.62 +15.9% | 42.7% | +35.5% | $2.26 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Nouveau Rouge  40.0% $178.22 Crane Flight  20.0% $150.19 Deathgaze  20.0% $40.33 Kintsugi  20.0% $38.72 | $178.22 +76.6% | $117.14 +16.0% | 60.0% | +63.6% | $100.94 | — |