The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Bock Blocks
1x $0.49
Fragment
1x $0.52
Blush Pour
3x $0.36
Rose Hex
3x $0.40
Shredded
2x $0.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
26.7% $15.94
Glitched Paint
26.7% $7.17
Bleeding Edge
26.7% $5.65
Electrum
4.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
4.0% $2.79
Galigator
4.0% $2.19
Max Win
$15.94 (+148.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.18 (+27.4%)
Win %
53.3%
Volatility
+77.2%
Cost
$6.42
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.42
Ask Price EV $8.18 (+27.4%)
Bid Price EV $7.34 (+14.3%)
Ask Profit $1.76 (+27.4%)
Bid Profit $0.92 (+14.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.84 (+13.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.76
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.92
Risk
Win Probability 53.3%
Loss Probability 46.7%
Best Case $15.94 (+148.3%)
Worst Case $1.72 (-73.2%)
Volatility +77.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$5.14
Avg Loss -$2.10
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.90 (-70.4%)
Std Dev $4.95
Avg Norm Float 0.1999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 145h 50m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Field-Tested
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.82 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 12M 10S //TOTAL COST $6.42 //ASK PRICE EV $8.18 //BID PRICE EV $7.34 //ASK PROFIT $1.76 (+27.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.92 (+14.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 53.3% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +77.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
26.7%
$15.94
+$9.52
+148.3%
$14.54
+$8.12
+126.5%
$1.40
8.8%
—
PAPER WIN
26.7%
$7.17
+$0.75
+11.8%
$6.21
-$0.21
-3.3%
$0.96
13.4%
—
LOSS
26.7%
$5.65
-$0.77
-11.9%
$5.14
-$1.28
-19.9%
$0.51
9.1%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$4.11
-$2.31
-36.0%
$3.61
-$2.81
-43.8%
$0.50
12.2%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.79
-$3.63
-56.6%
$2.32
-$4.10
-63.9%
$0.47
16.8%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.19
-$4.23
-65.9%
$1.74
-$4.68
-72.9%
$0.45
20.4%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.90
-$4.52
-70.4%
$1.63
-$4.79
-74.6%
$0.27
14.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.72
-$4.70
-73.2%
$1.63
-$4.79
-74.6%
$0.09
5.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.149895,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1339062,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 7.1745,
"optimistic_value": 7.15,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:37:39.244200Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.26666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.119916,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.653,
"optimistic_value": 5.52,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:40.345971Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.19986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.19986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.19986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.19986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.7235,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:00.652155Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.19986,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.8975,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:37:25.967489Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_63db64d2b4c2bba9d706e4fa",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "491598690700097906",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:10.458159Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "507361289453751817",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:39.652121Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293735613",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:41:06.566077Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:43:57.877916Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:16.665087Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "526501535293744649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:41:06.566077Z"
},
{
"price": 0.82,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "527627435179438172",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:28.748473Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "494976390476814342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:36.222183Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "517494388633767838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:28.748473Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "519746188259296772",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:08.315351Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Mulberry 26.7% $5.01 Electrum 4.0% $3.09 Glitched Paint 26.7% $2.92 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $2.03 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.02 Galigator 4.0% $1.98 | $5.01 +64.1% | $3.05 +0.0% | 30.7% | +38.7% | $3.05 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.65 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +202.5% | $6.78 +28.7% | 60.0% | +86.1% | $5.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.01 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.65 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +130.7% | $8.83 +27.8% | 60.0% | +66.7% | $6.91 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.65 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +171.6% | $7.48 +27.3% | 46.7% | +78.4% | $5.87 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.65 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +231.4% | $6.07 +26.1% | 50.0% | +91.7% | $4.81 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.91 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +270.7% | $5.41 +25.8% | 40.0% | +97.3% | $4.30 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.91 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +314.1% | $4.68 +21.6% | 44.0% | +100.2% | $3.85 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $5.01 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 6.7% $2.92 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $2.13 | $5.01 +111.2% | $2.68 +13.1% | 45.3% | +36.6% | $2.37 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 3.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 3.3% $7.17 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.65 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Galigator 18.0% $3.38 | $15.94 +256.6% | $4.88 +9.3% | 46.0% | +52.4% | $4.47 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Deathgaze  30.0% $10.22 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.69 | $35.39 +123.6% | $18.73 +18.3% | 40.0% | +72.1% | $15.83 | — |