The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train Collection ×2
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Banana Leaf
2x $0.17
Coral Paisley
5x $0.21
Picnic
1x $0.58
Urban DDPAT
1x $0.14
Metallic DDPAT
1x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
20.0% $6.16
Sky Mandala
20.0% $3.51
Earth Mandala
20.0% $2.30
Warm Blooded
20.0% $2.28
Urban Rubble
10.0% $1.87
Amber Fade
10.0% $1.32
Max Win
$6.16 (+110.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.17 (+8.2%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+55.3%
Cost
$2.93
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.93
Ask Price EV $3.17 (+8.2%)
Bid Price EV $3.11 (+6.2%)
Ask Profit $0.24 (+8.2%)
Bid Profit $0.18 (+6.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+2.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.24
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.18
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $6.16 (+110.2%)
Worst Case $1.32 (-54.9%)
Volatility +55.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$1.91
Avg Loss -$0.87
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.32 (-54.9%)
Std Dev $1.62
Avg Norm Float 0.1000
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 13m
Oldest Output Price 9h 59m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Urban DDPAT
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Metallic DDPAT
—
Factory New
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 12M 46S //TOTAL COST $2.93 //ASK PRICE EV $3.17 //BID PRICE EV $3.11 //ASK PROFIT $0.24 (+8.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.18 (+6.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $6.16 //VOLATILITY +55.3% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$6.16
+$3.23
+110.2%
$6.12
+$3.19
+108.9%
$0.04
0.6%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$3.51
+$0.58
+19.9%
$3.42
+$0.49
+16.7%
$0.09
2.7%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$2.30
-$0.63
-21.4%
$2.25
-$0.68
-23.2%
$0.05
2.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$2.28
-$0.65
-22.2%
$2.25
-$0.68
-23.2%
$0.03
1.3%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.87
-$1.06
-36.2%
$1.81
-$1.12
-38.2%
$0.06
3.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.32
-$1.61
-54.9%
$1.23
-$1.70
-58.0%
$0.09
7.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.064987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.06998599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.5135,
"optimistic_value": 3.51,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.684841Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.06998599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:33.763709Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.0659868,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3035,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:15.962603Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.04999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612659d976ea",
"realistic_value": 1.8705,
"optimistic_value": 1.86,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble",
"conservative_value": 1.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T18:54:07.528996Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612659d976ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.039992,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c43661e243fc",
"realistic_value": 1.3225,
"optimistic_value": 1.27,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 1.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:34:48.985425Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c43661e243fc.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5ff2ddbf2923b79afe49ef6e",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "507361237008908833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:21.780595Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "492724538183378061",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:36.984600Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "509613036861256419",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:36.984600Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "499479989895930289",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:36.984600Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "527627435180956868",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:36.984600Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "510738823411175518",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:36.984600Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "498354089953516927",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:51.551762Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884292343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:55.445138Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-044cebc994db",
"listing_id": "505109323868547560",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Urban DDPAT",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-044cebc994db.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:52:44.003242Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-621090a2f1ba",
"listing_id": "505109489447736536",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Metallic DDPAT",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-621090a2f1ba.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:52:44.977361Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8+collection-set-train:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 20.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 20.0% $1.69 Earth Mandala 20.0% $1.20 Warm Blooded 20.0% $1.07 Amber Fade 10.0% $0.47 Urban Rubble 10.0% $0.46 | $2.93 +169.2% | $1.47 +35.0% | 60.0% | +76.0% | $1.09 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 17.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 17.5% $1.87 Earth Mandala 17.5% $1.18 Warm Blooded 17.5% $1.07 Amber Fade 15.0% $0.47 Urban Rubble 15.0% $0.46 | $2.93 +174.2% | $1.37 +28.4% | 70.0% | +80.3% | $1.07 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic  40.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion  40.0% $2.17 Red Quartz  20.0% $0.57 | $9.85 +150.6% | $4.92 +25.3% | 40.0% | +103.4% | $3.93 | — |