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The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train Collection ×2

Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Factory New -48.2%Field-Tested +35.0%Minimal Wear +8.2%
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Coral Paisley
MP7 | Coral Paisley
3x $0.23
Picnic
MP5-SD | Picnic
3x $0.30
Banana Leaf
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
1x $0.34
XoooM
XM1014 | XoooM
1x $1.19
Carbon Fiber
SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber
1x $0.80
Ash Wood
P90 | Ash Wood
1x $1.03
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
20.0% $6.16
Sky Mandala
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
20.0% $3.51
Earth Mandala
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
20.0% $2.30
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
20.0% $2.28
Urban Rubble
Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble
10.0% $1.87
Amber Fade
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade
10.0% $1.32
Max Win
$6.16 (+0.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.17 (-48.2%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+26.5%
Cost
$6.12
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.12
Ask Price EV $3.17 (-48.2%)
Bid Price EV $3.11 (-49.2%)
Ask Profit $-2.95 (-48.2%)
Bid Profit $-3.01 (-49.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+1.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.95
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.01
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $6.16 (+0.6%)
Worst Case $1.32 (-78.4%)
Volatility +26.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$0.04
Avg Loss -$3.70
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.32 (-78.4%)
Std Dev $1.62
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 9h 59m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Factory New
MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber
—
Factory New
SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Ash Wood
—
Factory New
P90 | Ash Wood (Factory New)
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 12M 50S //TOTAL COST $6.12 //ASK PRICE EV $3.17 //BID PRICE EV $3.11 //ASK PROFIT $-2.95 (-48.2%) //BID PROFIT $-3.01 (-49.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $6.16 //VOLATILITY +26.5% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
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Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
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Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 8,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train|Industrial Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 2,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.045474,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
      "realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
      "optimistic_value": 6.13,
      "output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
      "conservative_value": 6.12,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "realistic_value": 3.5135,
      "optimistic_value": 3.51,
      "output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "conservative_value": 3.42,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:34.684841Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "realistic_value": 2.2805,
      "optimistic_value": 2.27,
      "output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:33.763709Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.2,
      "output_float": 0.046173599999999995,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "realistic_value": 2.3035,
      "optimistic_value": 2.3,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:15.962603Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.03498,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-612659d976ea",
      "realistic_value": 1.8705,
      "optimistic_value": 1.86,
      "output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble",
      "conservative_value": 1.81,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T18:54:07.528996Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612659d976ea.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.1,
      "output_float": 0.027984,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-c43661e243fc",
      "realistic_value": 1.3225,
      "optimistic_value": 1.27,
      "output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Amber Fade",
      "conservative_value": 1.23,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:34:48.985425Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c43661e243fc.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_5ff2ddbf2923b79afe49ef6e",
  "input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.23,
      "skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
      "listing_id": "509613036861256419",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:36.984600Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.24,
      "skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
      "listing_id": "499479989895930289",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:36.984600Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.3,
      "skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
      "listing_id": "519746022668955032",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:48.205426Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.34,
      "skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
      "listing_id": "498354089953516927",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
      "name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:51.551762Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.58,
      "skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
      "listing_id": "496102237884292343",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:55.445138Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.61,
      "skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
      "listing_id": "501731789729823857",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:55.445138Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.8,
      "skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
      "listing_id": "526501587736797929",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)",
      "name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:40:14.908154Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.19,
      "skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
      "listing_id": "518620235867474188",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
      "name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:39:48.429008Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.8,
      "skin_id": "skin-7120cef6b037",
      "listing_id": "499479937455513109",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train",
      "market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)",
      "name": "SCAR-20 | Carbon Fiber",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7120cef6b037.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:54.686048Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.03,
      "skin_id": "skin-6764c2686f68",
      "listing_id": "527627322006476924",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Ash Wood (Factory New)",
      "name": "P90 | Ash Wood",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6764c2686f68.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:30.867323Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8+collection-set-train:2"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train Collection ×2
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Fraise Crane
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
20.0% $2.93
Sky Mandala
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
20.0% $1.69
Earth Mandala
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
20.0% $1.20
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
20.0% $1.07
Amber Fade
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade
10.0% $0.47
Urban Rubble
Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble
10.0% $0.46
$2.93
+169.2%
$1.47
+35.0%
60.0%+76.0%$1.09—
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train Collection ×2
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Fraise Crane
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
20.0% $6.16
Sky Mandala
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
20.0% $3.51
Earth Mandala
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
20.0% $2.30
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
20.0% $2.28
Urban Rubble
Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble
10.0% $1.87
Amber Fade
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade
10.0% $1.32
$6.16
+110.2%
$3.17
+8.2%
40.0%+55.3%$2.93—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train Collection ×3
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Fraise Crane
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
17.5% $2.93
Sky Mandala
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
17.5% $1.87
Earth Mandala
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
17.5% $1.18
Warm Blooded
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
17.5% $1.07
Amber Fade
Sawed-Off | Amber Fade
15.0% $0.47
Urban Rubble
Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble
15.0% $0.46
$2.93
+174.2%
$1.37
+28.4%
70.0%+80.3%$1.07—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Exothermic
AWP | Exothermic
40.0% $9.85
Sleeping Potion
USP-S | Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.17
Red Quartz
Tec-9 | Red Quartz
20.0% $0.57
$9.85
+150.6%
$4.92
+25.3%
40.0%+103.4%$3.93—
FS

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