The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train Collection ×2
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Picnic
4x $0.06
Calligrafaux
3x $0.08
Coral Paisley
1x $0.10
Ash Wood
1x $0.12
Urban DDPAT
1x $0.14
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
20.0% $2.60
Sky Mandala
20.0% $1.69
Earth Mandala
20.0% $1.20
Warm Blooded
20.0% $1.05
Amber Fade
10.0% $0.47
Urban Rubble
10.0% $0.46
Max Win
$2.60 (+138.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.40 (+28.5%)
Win %
60.0%
Volatility
+65.7%
Cost
$1.09
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.09
Ask Price EV $1.40 (+28.5%)
Bid Price EV $1.28 (+17.0%)
Ask Profit $0.31 (+28.5%)
Bid Profit $0.18 (+17.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.13 (+11.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.31
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.18
Risk
Win Probability 60.0%
Loss Probability 40.0%
Best Case $2.60 (+138.9%)
Worst Case $0.46 (-57.8%)
Volatility +65.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$0.74
Avg Loss -$0.33
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.46 (-57.8%)
Std Dev $0.72
Avg Norm Float 0.2138
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 123h 27m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Calligrafaux
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Ash Wood
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Urban DDPAT
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 19M 59S //TOTAL COST $1.09 //ASK PRICE EV $1.40 //BID PRICE EV $1.28 //ASK PROFIT $0.31 (+28.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.18 (+17.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 60.0% //BEST CASE $2.60 //VOLATILITY +65.7% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
20.0%
$2.60
+$1.51
+138.9%
$2.37
+$1.28
+117.4%
$0.23
9.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$1.69
+$0.60
+54.6%
$1.56
+$0.47
+43.1%
$0.13
7.4%
—
PAPER WIN
20.0%
$1.20
+$0.11
+9.9%
$1.01
-$0.08
-7.3%
$0.19
15.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$1.05
-$0.04
-3.6%
$1.01
-$0.08
-7.3%
$0.04
3.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.47
-$0.62
-56.5%
$0.42
-$0.67
-61.5%
$0.05
11.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.46
-$0.63
-57.8%
$0.43
-$0.66
-60.6%
$0.03
6.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.1389895,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 2.6035,
"optimistic_value": 2.6,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 2.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:56.777445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.14968099999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 1.685,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.56,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:02.061877Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.14968099999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 1.0505,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:53.671597Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.1411278,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 1.1975,
"optimistic_value": 1.18,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:49:55.397923Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.106915,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612659d976ea",
"realistic_value": 0.46,
"optimistic_value": 0.46,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble",
"conservative_value": 0.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:40:27.359805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612659d976ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.085532,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c43661e243fc",
"realistic_value": 0.47400000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 0.46,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Amber Fade",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T00:30:44.164693Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c43661e243fc.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5ff2ddbf2923b79afe49ef6e",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "500605837398752843",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.784464Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "514116636507678234",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.784464Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "499479989896536709",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:03.778610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "520871291151277632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:12.081594Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "512990789044453199",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:03.778610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-2efacc35df16",
"listing_id": "661608215053675084",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Calligrafaux",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2efacc35df16.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:03.778610Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "517494388633711354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:06.295855Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "503983589618556751",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:06.295855Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-6764c2686f68",
"listing_id": "516368436281286782",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Ash Wood (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Ash Wood",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6764c2686f68.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:35:12.086189Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-044cebc994db",
"listing_id": "505109323868547560",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Urban DDPAT",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-044cebc994db.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:37:16.454887Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8+collection-set-train:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×9+The Train Collection ×1 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 22.5% $2.60 Sky Mandala 22.5% $1.86 Earth Mandala 22.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 22.5% $1.05 Amber Fade 5.0% $0.47 Urban Rubble 5.0% $0.46 | $2.60 +122.5% | $1.56 +33.1% | 67.5% | +58.8% | $1.17 | — |
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 17.5% $2.60 Sky Mandala 17.5% $1.69 Earth Mandala 17.5% $1.20 Warm Blooded 17.5% $1.05 Amber Fade 15.0% $0.47 Urban Rubble 15.0% $0.46 | $2.60 +138.9% | $1.28 +17.8% | 52.5% | +67.7% | $1.09 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Exothermic  35.0% $9.85 Sleeping Potion  35.0% $2.15 Red Quartz  30.0% $0.57 | $9.85 +166.2% | $4.37 +18.1% | 35.0% | +110.0% | $3.70 | — |