The Prisma 2 Collection ×9+The Overpass Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Bone Forged
1x $0.31
Desert Strike
1x $0.34
Distressed
1x $0.36
Tom Cat
2x $0.37
Prototype
3x $0.41
Blue Ply
1x $0.87
↓
Possible Outputs
Pink DDPAT
5.0% $135.49
Road Rash
5.0% $124.10
Fever Dream
18.0% $3.18
Acid Etched
18.0% $2.37
Darkwing
18.0% $2.29
Apocalypto
18.0% $1.98
Max Win
$135.49 (+477.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.09 (-35.7%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+163.0%
Cost
$23.48
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $23.48
Ask Price EV $15.09 (-35.7%)
Bid Price EV $13.18 (-43.9%)
Ask Profit $-8.39 (-35.7%)
Bid Profit $-10.30 (-43.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.91 (+8.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$8.39
Bid Slippage Buffer -$10.30
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $135.49 (+477.0%)
Worst Case $1.89 (-92.0%)
Volatility +163.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$106.31
Avg Loss -$21.14
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.89 (-92.0%)
Std Dev $38.28
Avg Norm Float 0.1215
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 48h 48m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Desert Strike
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$0.87 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$19.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 31S //TOTAL COST $23.48 //ASK PRICE EV $15.09 //BID PRICE EV $13.18 //ASK PROFIT $-8.39 (-35.7%) //BID PROFIT $-10.30 (-43.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $135.49 //VOLATILITY +163.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
5.0%
$135.49
+$112.01
+477.0%
$116.28
+$92.80
+395.2%
$19.21
14.2%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$124.10
+$100.62
+428.5%
$108.84
+$85.36
+363.5%
$15.25
12.3%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$3.18
-$20.30
-86.5%
$2.81
-$20.67
-88.0%
$0.37
11.6%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.37
-$21.11
-89.9%
$2.25
-$21.23
-90.4%
$0.12
5.1%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.29
-$21.19
-90.2%
$2.02
-$21.46
-91.4%
$0.27
11.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.98
-$21.50
-91.6%
$1.88
-$21.60
-92.0%
$0.10
4.9%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.89
-$21.59
-92.0%
$1.72
-$21.76
-92.7%
$0.17
8.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.12147,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 2.3705,
"optimistic_value": 2.36,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:23.813115Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.12147,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 1.8869999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 1.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:58:33.949675Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.12147,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 2.291,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 2.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T07:19:18.742363Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.08745839999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 3.18,
"optimistic_value": 3.18,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 2.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:51.182562Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.12147,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 1.9769999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.97,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 1.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:46.712464Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.1498878,
"output_skin_id": "skin-665b5d16532c",
"realistic_value": 135.48850000000002,
"optimistic_value": 127.68,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT",
"conservative_value": 116.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:48.946225Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-665b5d16532c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.12147,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d7d145b204a5",
"realistic_value": 124.095,
"optimistic_value": 120,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Road Rash",
"conservative_value": 108.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Road Rash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:06:08.182202Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d7d145b204a5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5d21fa81011f4ef6cf9a7e63",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-3c54e05cbb62",
"listing_id": "507361237010235361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3c54e05cbb62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:42.561719Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d536309c3714",
"listing_id": "506235337026426216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d536309c3714.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:28.433060Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "525375522202008871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:12.672926Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "491598690698515994",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:28.501437Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "496102290330001163",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:02.001348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "631208917632812762",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:02.001348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "492723793448175861",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:02.001348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "669488905360173675",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:28.501437Z"
},
{
"price": 0.87,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "516368488726618502",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:21.963820Z"
},
{
"price": 19.39,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "496101493258480463",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:07.774051Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:9+collection-set-overpass:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×9+The Overpass Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 5.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 5.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 18.0% $34.68 Enforcer 18.0% $9.50 Darkwing 18.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 18.0% $9.33 | $701.51 +1593.2% | $54.70 +32.0% | 10.0% | +361.4% | $41.43 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 10.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 10.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 16.0% $34.68 Enforcer 16.0% $9.50 Darkwing 16.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 16.0% $9.34 | $701.51 +866.4% | $95.12 +31.0% | 20.0% | +279.1% | $72.59 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 15.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 15.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 14.0% $34.68 Enforcer 14.0% $9.50 Darkwing 14.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 14.0% $9.33 | $701.51 +551.9% | $135.54 +26.0% | 30.0% | +220.2% | $107.61 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Overpass Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 20.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 20.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 12.0% $34.68 Enforcer 12.0% $9.50 Darkwing 12.0% $9.42 Apocalypto 12.0% $8.94 | $701.51 +363.7% | $175.92 +16.3% | 20.0% | +172.3% | $151.29 | — |