The Prisma 2 Collection ×9+The Overpass Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Bone Forged
1x $0.31
Desert Strike
2x $0.32
Distressed
1x $0.36
Tom Cat
1x $0.37
Prototype
4x $0.41
VariCamo Blue
1x $16.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Road Rash
5.0% $80.19
Pink DDPAT
5.0% $59.98
Fever Dream
18.0% $3.18
Apocalypto
18.0% $1.01
Acid Etched
18.0% $1.01
Enforcer
18.0% $1.00
Max Win
$80.19 (+301.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.30 (-58.5%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+104.3%
Cost
$19.99
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.99
Ask Price EV $8.30 (-58.5%)
Bid Price EV $7.12 (-64.4%)
Ask Profit $-11.69 (-58.5%)
Bid Profit $-12.87 (-64.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.18 (+5.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$11.69
Bid Slippage Buffer -$12.87
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $80.19 (+301.2%)
Worst Case $0.98 (-95.1%)
Volatility +104.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$50.10
Avg Loss -$18.55
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.98 (-95.1%)
Std Dev $20.86
Avg Norm Float 0.1585
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 147h 24m
Oldest Output Price 146h 31m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Desert Strike
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Desert Strike
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Field-Tested
$16.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 07S //TOTAL COST $19.99 //ASK PRICE EV $8.30 //BID PRICE EV $7.12 //ASK PROFIT $-11.69 (-58.5%) //BID PROFIT $-12.87 (-64.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $80.19 //VOLATILITY +104.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$80.19
+$60.20
+301.2%
$67.00
+$47.01
+235.2%
$13.19
16.4%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$59.98
+$39.99
+200.0%
$52.87
+$32.88
+164.5%
$7.11
11.9%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$3.18
-$16.81
-84.1%
$2.81
-$17.18
-85.9%
$0.37
11.6%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.01
-$18.98
-94.9%
$0.89
-$19.10
-95.5%
$0.12
12.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.01
-$18.98
-94.9%
$0.87
-$19.12
-95.6%
$0.14
13.9%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.00
-$18.99
-95.0%
$0.85
-$19.14
-95.7%
$0.15
15.3%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$0.98
-$19.01
-95.1%
$0.85
-$19.14
-95.7%
$0.13
13.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.15854,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 1.01,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:36:18.459472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.15854,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 1.0035,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:00.745653Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.15854,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 0.9834999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.98,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 0.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:34:09.808281Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.11414879999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 3.18,
"optimistic_value": 3.18,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 2.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:51.182562Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.15854,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 1.014,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:19.852594Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.17731959999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-665b5d16532c",
"realistic_value": 59.9785,
"optimistic_value": 59.94,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT",
"conservative_value": 52.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:48:48.739636Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-665b5d16532c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.15854,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d7d145b204a5",
"realistic_value": 80.19149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 74.91,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Road Rash",
"conservative_value": 67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Road Rash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:39:29.645920Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d7d145b204a5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5d21fa81011f4ef6cf9a7e63",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-3c54e05cbb62",
"listing_id": "507361237010235361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Bone Forged",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3c54e05cbb62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:42.561719Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-d536309c3714",
"listing_id": "517494388634339806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d536309c3714.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:28.433060Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d536309c3714",
"listing_id": "506235337026426216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Desert Strike",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d536309c3714.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:28.433060Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "525375522202008871",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:12.672926Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "491598690698515994",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:28.501437Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "496102290330001163",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:02.001348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "631208917632812762",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:02.001348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "492723793448175861",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:02.001348Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "655978715566164233",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:02.001348Z"
},
{
"price": 16.47,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "651475044035708298",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:41.506212Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:9+collection-set-overpass:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×9+The Overpass Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 5.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 5.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 18.0% $34.68 Enforcer 18.0% $9.50 Darkwing 18.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 18.0% $9.33 | $701.51 +1593.2% | $54.70 +32.0% | 10.0% | +361.4% | $41.43 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 10.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 10.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 16.0% $34.68 Enforcer 16.0% $9.50 Darkwing 16.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 16.0% $9.34 | $701.51 +866.4% | $95.12 +31.0% | 20.0% | +279.1% | $72.59 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 15.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 15.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 14.0% $34.68 Enforcer 14.0% $9.50 Darkwing 14.0% $9.41 Apocalypto 14.0% $9.33 | $701.51 +551.9% | $135.54 +26.0% | 30.0% | +220.2% | $107.61 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Overpass Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 20.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 20.0% $135.49 Acid Etched 12.0% $34.68 Enforcer 12.0% $9.50 Darkwing 12.0% $9.42 Apocalypto 12.0% $8.94 | $701.51 +363.7% | $175.92 +16.3% | 20.0% | +172.3% | $151.29 | — |