The Revolution Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Fragments
4x $0.29
Cyberforce
1x $0.34
Liquidation
1x $0.49
Mockingbird
2x $0.37
Sure Grip
2x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
Emphorosaur-S
12.0% $11.80
Control
8.0% $10.05
Serpent Strike
8.0% $8.70
Umbral Rabbit
12.0% $7.37
Tosai
8.0% $5.82
Neoqueen
12.0% $3.17
Max Win
$11.80 (+129.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.61 (+9.1%)
Win %
48.0%
Volatility
+68.1%
Cost
$5.14
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $5.14
Ask Price EV $5.61 (+9.1%)
Bid Price EV $4.95 (-3.7%)
Ask Profit $0.47 (+9.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.19 (-3.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.66 (+12.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.47
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.19
Risk
Win Probability 48.0%
Loss Probability 52.0%
Best Case $11.80 (+129.7%)
Worst Case $1.71 (-66.8%)
Volatility +68.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 52.0%
Avg Win +$3.75
Avg Loss -$2.56
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.71 (-66.8%)
Std Dev $3.50
Avg Norm Float 0.0874
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 150h 37m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Cyberforce
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Liquidation
—
Minimal Wear
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Minimal Wear
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 03M 30S //TOTAL COST $5.14 //ASK PRICE EV $5.61 //BID PRICE EV $4.95 //ASK PROFIT $0.47 (+9.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.19 (-3.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 48.0% //BEST CASE $11.80 //VOLATILITY +68.1% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$11.80
+$6.66
+129.7%
$10.16
+$5.02
+97.7%
$1.64
13.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$10.05
+$4.91
+95.5%
$8.52
+$3.38
+65.8%
$1.53
15.2%
—
BIG WIN
8.0%
$8.70
+$3.56
+69.3%
$7.63
+$2.49
+48.4%
$1.07
12.3%
—
WIN
12.0%
$7.37
+$2.23
+43.3%
$6.21
+$1.07
+20.8%
$1.16
15.7%
—
SMALL WIN
8.0%
$5.82
+$0.68
+13.2%
$5.64
+$0.50
+9.7%
$0.18
3.1%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$3.17
-$1.97
-38.3%
$3.08
-$2.06
-40.1%
$0.09
2.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.08
-$2.06
-40.1%
$2.88
-$2.26
-44.0%
$0.20
6.5%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.65
-$2.49
-48.4%
$2.41
-$2.73
-53.1%
$0.24
9.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.37
-$2.77
-53.8%
$2.23
-$2.91
-56.6%
$0.14
6.1%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.71
-$3.43
-66.8%
$1.46
-$3.68
-71.6%
$0.25
14.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06558,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 7.365,
"optimistic_value": 7.33,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:27.926241Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.069952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 11.804499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 11.5,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 10.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:54:46.328444Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.2607152,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 2.6535,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 2.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T22:36:48.873772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.052464000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.1735,
"optimistic_value": 3.1,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:15.249567Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.08744,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 1.7069999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 1.46,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:13.452087Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0498408,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 8.704,
"optimistic_value": 8.48,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 7.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:17:12.916885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0698641228,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 10.051,
"optimistic_value": 9.89,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 8.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T23:11:45.509281Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.08744,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 3.0795,
"optimistic_value": 3.02,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 2.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:29.986251Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.08311600456,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 2.3745,
"optimistic_value": 2.35,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 2.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:47.528050Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.061208,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 5.818,
"optimistic_value": 5.72,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 5.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:22:54.425404Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5c2e86e41ba009b54cd22159",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "514116741796781502",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:26.528205Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "517494441497397490",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:26.528205Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-79472cd37595",
"listing_id": "519746241188332448",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyberforce (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Cyberforce",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79472cd37595.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:47.330922Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-d87f89df4191",
"listing_id": "502857637416920044",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Liquidation",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d87f89df4191.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:33.160895Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "509613142167970671",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:53.674626Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "521997988016650110",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:53.674626Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "523123888072451458",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:46.274268Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "526501587738334445",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Mockingbird (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:46.274268Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "622201718411883996",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:07.069535Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "626705318055649559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:07.069535Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-32:6+collection-set-community-35:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 12.0% $3.08 Control 8.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 12.0% $2.65 Tosai 8.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +117.2% | $2.44 +20.4% | 60.0% | +41.5% | $2.03 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 14.0% $3.08 Control 6.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 14.0% $2.65 Tosai 6.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +120.5% | $2.43 +21.6% | 60.0% | +42.0% | $2.00 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 10.0% $3.08 Control 10.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 10.0% $2.65 Tosai 10.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +116.2% | $2.44 +19.8% | 60.0% | +41.6% | $2.04 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 12.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 8.0% $3.08 Control 12.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 8.0% $2.65 Tosai 12.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +111.0% | $2.45 +17.3% | 60.0% | +40.9% | $2.09 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.41 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $4.12 Umbral Rabbit 6.0% $3.08 Control 14.0% $2.76 Sakkaku 6.0% $2.65 Tosai 14.0% $2.54 | $4.41 +105.1% | $2.46 +14.3% | 60.0% | +40.0% | $2.15 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Shinobu  23.3% $35.33 Searing Rage  23.3% $26.81 Duality  10.0% $18.23 K.O. Factory  23.3% $14.00 Wild Child  10.0% $10.25 Wicked Sick  10.0% $9.57 | $35.33 +96.1% | $21.57 +19.8% | 56.7% | +53.3% | $18.01 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Printstream  30.0% $127.68 Bad Trip  30.0% $74.69 Temukau  20.0% $52.74 Head Shot  20.0% $46.53 | $127.68 +89.5% | $80.57 +19.6% | 60.0% | +48.4% | $67.38 | — |