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The Phoenix Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9

Restricted → Classified MW ST 10 items
Factory New +29.9%Field-Tested -0.6%Minimal Wear +2.5%
Contract
Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Sergeant
FAMAS | Sergeant
1x $7.96
Amberline
MP7 | Amberline
2x $3.52
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
4x $3.57
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
3x $4.85
↓
Possible Outputs
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
30.0% $126.41
Redline
AK-47 | Redline
3.3% $102.64
Antique
Nova | Antique
3.3% $29.85
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
30.0% $22.90
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
30.0% $21.20
Trigon
P90 | Trigon
3.3% $20.82
Max Win
$126.41 (+130.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$56.27 (+2.5%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+87.7%
Cost
$54.90
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $54.90
Ask Price EV $56.27 (+2.5%)
Bid Price EV $50.34 (-8.3%)
Ask Profit $1.37 (+2.5%)
Bid Profit $-4.56 (-8.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $5.92 (+10.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.37
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.56
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $126.41 (+130.3%)
Worst Case $20.82 (-62.1%)
Volatility +87.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%
Avg Win +$69.13
Avg Loss -$32.52
Bottom 5% Outcome $21.20 (-61.4%)
Std Dev $48.12
Avg Norm Float 0.1494
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 148h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Sergeant
—
Field-Tested
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested)
$7.96 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)
$3.52 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)
$3.57 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Field-Tested
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)
$4.85 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)
$4.95 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)
$5.02 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)
$5.17 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)
$5.66 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)
$6.41 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)
$7.79 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 28S //TOTAL COST $54.90 //ASK PRICE EV $56.27 //BID PRICE EV $50.34 //ASK PROFIT $1.37 (+2.5%) //BID PROFIT $-4.56 (-8.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $126.41 //VOLATILITY +87.7% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-2|Restricted|stattrak",
      "item_count": 1,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-2"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
      "item_count": 9,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.14936,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
      "realistic_value": 126.41149999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 124,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
      "conservative_value": 112.39,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.452841Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.14936,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
      "realistic_value": 22.903499999999998,
      "optimistic_value": 22.9,
      "output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
      "conservative_value": 20.66,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:51.504117Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.3,
      "output_float": 0.14936,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "realistic_value": 21.203999999999997,
      "optimistic_value": 20.56,
      "output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "conservative_value": 19.39,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:52:45.207108Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.189616,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-91a429af4a60",
      "realistic_value": 102.635,
      "optimistic_value": 101.9,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Redline",
      "conservative_value": 95,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-2",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Phoenix Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:26:52.519207Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91a429af4a60.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.044807999999999994,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-064fed483cd7",
      "realistic_value": 29.8535,
      "optimistic_value": 29.78,
      "output_full_name": "Nova | Antique",
      "conservative_value": 24.43,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-2",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Phoenix Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Antique (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:44:34.849981Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-064fed483cd7.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.03333333333333333,
      "output_float": 0.1800712,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-91abb2db43b7",
      "realistic_value": 20.8155,
      "optimistic_value": 19.58,
      "output_full_name": "P90 | Trigon",
      "conservative_value": 18.93,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-2",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Phoenix Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:20.998839Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91abb2db43b7.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_5b902a1edcffd2cab5248984",
  "input_rarity": "Restricted",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 7.96,
      "skin_id": "skin-8737ccb056e6",
      "listing_id": "510738989039975266",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-2",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Sergeant (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "FAMAS | Sergeant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8737ccb056e6.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:27.504181Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "497228024527485521",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:51.664963Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.57,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "496102290329909687",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:09.086480Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.85,
      "skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "listing_id": "526501535292686465",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:56:10.319272Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 4.95,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "512990789044606127",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:42.168401Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.02,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "528753387757645605",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:42.168401Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.17,
      "skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
      "listing_id": "512990789044601843",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:42.168401Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 5.66,
      "skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "listing_id": "493850490550910008",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:50.047948Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 6.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
      "listing_id": "528753387757823085",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "MP7 | Amberline",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:58:05.273280Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 7.79,
      "skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
      "listing_id": "496102237883502647",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:50.047948Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Classified",
  "stattrak_mode": true,
  "composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-2:1+collection-set-community-37:9"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Phoenix Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified Factory New ST
Redline
AK-47 | Redline
3.3% $607.38
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
30.0% $290.04
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
30.0% $61.35
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
30.0% $56.41
Trigon
P90 | Trigon
3.3% $34.36
Antique
Nova | Antique
3.3% $29.85
$607.38
+445.0%
$144.73
+29.9%
33.3%+122.8%$111.44—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Phoenix Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Restricted → Classified Factory New ST
Redline
AK-47 | Redline
6.7% $607.38
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
26.7% $290.04
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
26.7% $61.35
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
26.7% $56.41
Trigon
P90 | Trigon
6.7% $34.36
Antique
Nova | Antique
6.7% $29.85
$607.38
+402.6%
$153.52
+27.0%
33.3%+132.0%$120.85—
The Phoenix Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Restricted → Classified Factory New ST
Redline
AK-47 | Redline
10.0% $607.38
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
23.3% $290.04
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
23.3% $61.35
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
23.3% $58.19
Trigon
P90 | Trigon
10.0% $34.36
Antique
Nova | Antique
10.0% $29.85
$607.38
+359.1%
$162.73
+23.0%
33.3%+135.0%$132.31—
The Phoenix Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6
Restricted → Classified Factory New ST
Redline
AK-47 | Redline
13.3% $607.38
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
20.0% $290.04
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
20.0% $61.35
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
20.0% $56.41
Trigon
P90 | Trigon
13.3% $34.36
Antique
Nova | Antique
13.3% $29.85
$607.38
+321.4%
$171.11
+18.7%
33.3%+136.0%$144.14—
The Phoenix Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5
Restricted → Classified Factory New ST
Redline
AK-47 | Redline
16.7% $607.38
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
16.7% $290.04
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
16.7% $61.35
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
16.7% $58.19
Trigon
P90 | Trigon
16.7% $34.36
Antique
Nova | Antique
16.7% $29.85
$607.38
+283.7%
$180.20
+13.8%
33.3%+133.4%$158.30—
The Phoenix Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4
Restricted → Classified Factory New ST
Redline
AK-47 | Redline
20.0% $607.38
Crane Flight
AK-47 | Crane Flight
13.3% $290.04
Kintsugi
P250 | Kintsugi
13.3% $61.35
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
13.3% $58.19
Trigon
P90 | Trigon
20.0% $34.36
Antique
Nova | Antique
20.0% $29.85
$607.38
+255.2%
$188.93
+10.5%
33.3%+131.6%$171.01—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Phoenix Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
18.0% $51.27
Heat
MAC-10 | Heat
2.5% $38.62
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
18.0% $31.66
Amberline
MP7 | Amberline
18.0% $18.87
Guardian
USP-S | Guardian
2.5% $18.67
Pulse
SG 553 | Pulse
2.5% $18.63
$51.27
+157.0%
$25.50
+27.8%
38.5%+59.5%$19.95—
The Phoenix Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Classified → Covert Factory New ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
45.0% $843.46
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
45.0% $484.90
Asiimov
AWP | Asiimov
5.0% $453.99
Chameleon
AUG | Chameleon
5.0% $158.46
$843.46
+64.3%
$628.39
+22.4%
45.0%+40.2%$513.49—
FS

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