The Phoenix Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified FN ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Heat
1x $16.49
Urban Sovereign
6x $4.77
Galigator
2x $5.66
Amberline
1x $6.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Redline
3.3% $607.38
Crane Flight
30.0% $290.04
Kintsugi
30.0% $61.35
Deathgaze
30.0% $58.69
Trigon
3.3% $34.36
Antique
3.3% $29.85
Max Win
$607.38 (+452.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$145.41 (+32.2%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+124.0%
Cost
$110.03
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $110.03
Ask Price EV $145.41 (+32.2%)
Bid Price EV $116.16 (+5.6%)
Ask Profit $35.38 (+32.2%)
Bid Profit $6.13 (+5.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $29.25 (+26.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$35.38
Bid Slippage Buffer +$6.13
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $607.38 (+452.0%)
Worst Case $29.85 (-72.9%)
Volatility +124.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 66.7%
Avg Win +$211.75
Avg Loss -$52.80
Bottom 5% Outcome $34.36 (-68.8%)
Std Dev $136.46
Avg Norm Float 0.0695
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 10m
Oldest Output Price 147h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Heat
—
Minimal Wear
$16.49 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$4.77 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Minimal Wear
$5.38 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$5.66 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Minimal Wear
$6.41 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Galigator
—
Minimal Wear
$9.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$13.86 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$15.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Factory New
$17.66 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 38S //TOTAL COST $110.03 //ASK PRICE EV $145.41 //BID PRICE EV $116.16 //ASK PROFIT $35.38 (+32.2%) //BID PROFIT $6.13 (+5.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $607.38 //VOLATILITY +124.0% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
3.3%
$607.38
+$497.35
+452.0%
$437.01
+$326.98
+297.2%
$170.37
28.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$290.04
+$180.01
+163.6%
$229.11
+$119.08
+108.2%
$60.93
21.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$61.35
-$48.68
-44.2%
$55.11
-$54.92
-49.9%
$6.24
10.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$58.69
-$51.34
-46.7%
$48.81
-$61.22
-55.6%
$9.88
16.8%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$34.36
-$75.67
-68.8%
$26.14
-$83.89
-76.2%
$8.22
23.9%
—
NUKE
3.3%
$29.85
-$80.18
-72.9%
$24.43
-$85.60
-77.8%
$5.42
18.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-2|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 290.0445,
"optimistic_value": 279.45,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 229.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:40.031809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 61.3465,
"optimistic_value": 61.21,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 55.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:39.587140Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.06951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 58.6885,
"optimistic_value": 56.9,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 48.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:42:32.713168Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.141706,
"output_skin_id": "skin-91a429af4a60",
"realistic_value": 607.379,
"optimistic_value": 586.4,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Redline",
"conservative_value": 437.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Phoenix Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:15:57.334529Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91a429af4a60.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.020853,
"output_skin_id": "skin-064fed483cd7",
"realistic_value": 29.8535,
"optimistic_value": 29.78,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Antique",
"conservative_value": 24.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Phoenix Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Antique (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:32:41.028068Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-064fed483cd7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1265717,
"output_skin_id": "skin-91abb2db43b7",
"realistic_value": 34.361,
"optimistic_value": 33.78,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Trigon",
"conservative_value": 26.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Phoenix Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:00.895799Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91abb2db43b7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5b902a1edcffd2cab5248984",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 16.49,
"skin_id": "skin-4ef0fd14ae8f",
"listing_id": "490472790737887539",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-2",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Heat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4ef0fd14ae8f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:08:37.421286Z"
},
{
"price": 4.77,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "517494388634454286",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:51.345906Z"
},
{
"price": 5.38,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "500605837398261191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:51.345906Z"
},
{
"price": 5.66,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "493850490550910008",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:47.438054Z"
},
{
"price": 6.41,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "528753387757823085",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:08:38.399751Z"
},
{
"price": 9,
"skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"listing_id": "496102237883506139",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:47.438054Z"
},
{
"price": 13.86,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "523123940968660786",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:48.805111Z"
},
{
"price": 15.3,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "518619491430346084",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:48.805111Z"
},
{
"price": 15.5,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496101493270757831",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:48.805111Z"
},
{
"price": 17.66,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "506234592361187964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:48.805111Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-2:1+collection-set-community-37:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Phoenix Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Redline 3.3% $102.64 Crane Flight 30.0% $63.86 Antique 3.3% $25.03 Trigon 3.3% $20.82 Kintsugi 30.0% $12.65 Deathgaze 30.0% $11.23 | $102.64 +252.9% | $31.27 +7.5% | 33.3% | +92.1% | $29.08 | — |
The Phoenix Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $126.41 Redline 3.3% $102.64 Antique 3.3% $29.85 Kintsugi 30.0% $21.81 Deathgaze 30.0% $21.34 Trigon 3.3% $20.82 | $126.41 +134.9% | $55.98 +4.0% | 33.3% | +89.8% | $53.82 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Phoenix Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Redline 6.7% $607.38 Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Kintsugi 26.7% $62.86 Deathgaze 26.7% $58.69 Trigon 6.7% $34.36 Antique 6.7% $29.85 | $607.38 +406.8% | $154.53 +28.9% | 33.3% | +132.6% | $119.84 | — |
The Phoenix Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Redline 10.0% $607.38 Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $61.35 Deathgaze 23.3% $56.41 Trigon 10.0% $34.36 Antique 10.0% $29.85 | $607.38 +364.2% | $162.31 +24.1% | 33.3% | +136.7% | $130.84 | — |
The Phoenix Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Redline 13.3% $607.38 Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $61.35 Deathgaze 20.0% $58.69 Trigon 13.3% $34.36 Antique 13.3% $29.85 | $607.38 +322.0% | $171.56 +19.2% | 33.3% | +136.0% | $143.92 | — |
The Phoenix Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Redline 16.7% $607.38 Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Kintsugi 16.7% $61.35 Deathgaze 16.7% $56.41 Trigon 16.7% $34.36 Antique 16.7% $29.85 | $607.38 +284.9% | $179.90 +14.0% | 33.3% | +133.9% | $157.81 | — |
The Phoenix Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Redline 20.0% $607.38 Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 13.3% $62.86 Deathgaze 13.3% $58.69 Trigon 20.0% $34.36 Antique 20.0% $29.85 | $607.38 +231.8% | $189.20 +3.4% | 33.3% | +122.9% | $183.03 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Phoenix Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  18.0% $51.27 Heat 2.5% $38.62 Firebreathing  18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Guardian  2.5% $18.64 Pulse  2.5% $18.63 | $51.27 +160.8% | $25.52 +29.8% | 38.5% | +60.4% | $19.66 | — |
The Phoenix Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Asiimov  5.0% $453.99 Chameleon  5.0% $158.46 | $843.46 +67.5% | $628.39 +24.8% | 45.0% | +41.0% | $503.61 | — |