The Phoenix Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Restricted → Classified FT ST 10 items
Contract
Restricted → Classified Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Sergeant
1x $5.01
Amberline
8x $1.90
Urban Sovereign
1x $3.57
↓
Possible Outputs
Redline
3.3% $102.64
Crane Flight
30.0% $63.86
Antique
3.3% $25.03
Trigon
3.3% $20.82
Kintsugi
30.0% $12.65
Deathgaze
30.0% $11.14
Max Win
$102.64 (+226.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$31.24 (-0.6%)
Win %
33.3%
Volatility
+85.3%
Cost
$31.42
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $31.42
Ask Price EV $31.24 (-0.6%)
Bid Price EV $28.28 (-10.0%)
Ask Profit $-0.18 (-0.6%)
Bid Profit $-3.14 (-10.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.96 (+9.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.18
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.14
Risk
Win Probability 33.3%
Loss Probability 66.7%
Best Case $102.64 (+226.7%)
Worst Case $11.14 (-64.5%)
Volatility +85.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 63.3%
Avg Win +$36.32
Avg Loss -$18.42
Bottom 5% Outcome $11.14 (-64.5%)
Std Dev $26.81
Avg Norm Float 0.3351
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 148h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Sergeant
—
Battle-Scarred
$5.01 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Battle-Scarred
$1.90 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.31 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.33 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Well-Worn
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$2.88 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$2.89 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$3.52 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
—
Field-Tested
$3.57 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Amberline
—
Field-Tested
$4.67 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 31S //TOTAL COST $31.42 //ASK PRICE EV $31.24 //BID PRICE EV $28.28 //ASK PROFIT $-0.18 (-0.6%) //BID PROFIT $-3.14 (-10.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 33.3% //BEST CASE $102.64 //VOLATILITY +85.3% //
Possible Outputs · 6
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
3.3%
$102.64
+$71.22
+226.7%
$95.00
+$63.58
+202.4%
$7.64
7.4%
—
BIG WIN
30.0%
$63.86
+$32.44
+103.2%
$60.32
+$28.90
+92.0%
$3.54
5.5%
—
LOSS
3.3%
$25.03
-$6.39
-20.4%
$19.86
-$11.56
-36.8%
$5.17
20.6%
—
LOSS
3.3%
$20.82
-$10.60
-33.8%
$18.93
-$12.49
-39.8%
$1.89
9.1%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$12.65
-$18.77
-59.7%
$9.57
-$21.85
-69.5%
$3.08
24.4%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$11.14
-$20.28
-64.5%
$9.52
-$21.90
-69.7%
$1.62
14.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-2|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Restricted|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.33509,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f64cdaac0b90",
"realistic_value": 63.8595,
"optimistic_value": 63.52,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Crane Flight",
"conservative_value": 60.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Crane Flight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.600521Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f64cdaac0b90.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.33509,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2f5828f37817",
"realistic_value": 12.650500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.57,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Kintsugi",
"conservative_value": 9.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:01.279472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2f5828f37817.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.33509,
"output_skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
"realistic_value": 11.1425,
"optimistic_value": 10.81,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
"conservative_value": 9.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:08.848361Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.301054,
"output_skin_id": "skin-91a429af4a60",
"realistic_value": 102.635,
"optimistic_value": 101.9,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Redline",
"conservative_value": 95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Phoenix Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:26:52.519207Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91a429af4a60.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.10052699999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-064fed483cd7",
"realistic_value": 25.0255,
"optimistic_value": 24,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Antique",
"conservative_value": 19.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Phoenix Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Antique (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T11:09:54.966303Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-064fed483cd7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.03333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.3045103,
"output_skin_id": "skin-91abb2db43b7",
"realistic_value": 20.8155,
"optimistic_value": 19.58,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Trigon",
"conservative_value": 18.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Phoenix Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:20.998839Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91abb2db43b7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5b902a1edcffd2cab5248984",
"input_rarity": "Restricted",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 5.01,
"skin_id": "skin-8737ccb056e6",
"listing_id": "517494388632550102",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-2",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Sergeant (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Sergeant",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8737ccb056e6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:35.762242Z"
},
{
"price": 1.9,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361289454067249",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:35.288829Z"
},
{
"price": 2.31,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "505109489448722396",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:42.404437Z"
},
{
"price": 2.33,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361237008630373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:42.404437Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724538182385829",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:42.404437Z"
},
{
"price": 2.88,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "507361342333656277",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:51.664963Z"
},
{
"price": 2.89,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "492724590627303729",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:51.664963Z"
},
{
"price": 3.52,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "497228024527485521",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:51.664963Z"
},
{
"price": 3.57,
"skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"listing_id": "496102290329909687",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:09.086480Z"
},
{
"price": 4.67,
"skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"listing_id": "508487023588144070",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:51.664963Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Classified",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Restricted|Classified|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-2:1+collection-set-community-37:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Phoenix Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Redline 3.3% $607.38 Crane Flight 30.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 30.0% $61.35 Deathgaze 30.0% $56.41 Trigon 3.3% $34.36 Antique 3.3% $29.85 | $607.38 +445.0% | $144.73 +29.9% | 33.3% | +122.8% | $111.44 | — |
The Phoenix Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Crane Flight 30.0% $126.41 Redline 3.3% $102.64 Antique 3.3% $29.85 Kintsugi 30.0% $22.90 Deathgaze 30.0% $21.20 Trigon 3.3% $20.82 | $126.41 +130.3% | $56.27 +2.5% | 33.3% | +87.7% | $54.90 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Phoenix Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Redline 6.7% $607.38 Crane Flight 26.7% $290.04 Kintsugi 26.7% $61.35 Deathgaze 26.7% $56.41 Trigon 6.7% $34.36 Antique 6.7% $29.85 | $607.38 +402.6% | $153.52 +27.0% | 33.3% | +132.0% | $120.85 | — |
The Phoenix Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Redline 10.0% $607.38 Crane Flight 23.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 23.3% $61.35 Deathgaze 23.3% $58.19 Trigon 10.0% $34.36 Antique 10.0% $29.85 | $607.38 +359.1% | $162.73 +23.0% | 33.3% | +135.0% | $132.31 | — |
The Phoenix Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Redline 13.3% $607.38 Crane Flight 20.0% $290.04 Kintsugi 20.0% $61.35 Deathgaze 20.0% $56.41 Trigon 13.3% $34.36 Antique 13.3% $29.85 | $607.38 +321.4% | $171.11 +18.7% | 33.3% | +136.0% | $144.14 | — |
The Phoenix Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Redline 16.7% $607.38 Crane Flight 16.7% $290.04 Kintsugi 16.7% $61.35 Deathgaze 16.7% $58.19 Trigon 16.7% $34.36 Antique 16.7% $29.85 | $607.38 +283.7% | $180.20 +13.8% | 33.3% | +133.4% | $158.30 | — |
The Phoenix Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Redline 20.0% $607.38 Crane Flight 13.3% $290.04 Kintsugi 13.3% $61.35 Deathgaze 13.3% $58.19 Trigon 20.0% $34.36 Antique 20.0% $29.85 | $607.38 +255.2% | $188.93 +10.5% | 33.3% | +131.6% | $171.01 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Phoenix Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum  18.0% $51.27 Heat  2.5% $38.62 Firebreathing  18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Guardian  2.5% $18.67 Pulse  2.5% $18.63 | $51.27 +157.0% | $25.50 +27.8% | 38.5% | +59.5% | $19.95 | — |
The Phoenix Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  45.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  45.0% $484.90 Asiimov  5.0% $453.99 Chameleon  5.0% $158.46 | $843.46 +64.3% | $628.39 +22.4% | 45.0% | +40.2% | $513.49 | — |