The Lake Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Mudder
3x $0.08
Safari Mesh
2x $0.20
Cyanospatter
1x $0.41
Gum Wall Camo
2x $0.13
Robin's Egg
1x $0.15
Electric Blue
1x $0.20
↓
Possible Outputs
Night Ops
20.0% $7.22
Mint Fan
8.0% $3.23
Royal Baroque
8.0% $2.64
Reef Grief
8.0% $2.05
Yeti Camo
8.0% $1.72
Teardown
20.0% $1.65
Max Win
$7.22 (+231.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.84 (+30.3%)
Win %
36.0%
Volatility
+104.4%
Cost
$2.18
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.18
Ask Price EV $2.84 (+30.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.72 (+24.8%)
Ask Profit $0.66 (+30.3%)
Bid Profit $0.54 (+24.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.12 (+5.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.66
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.54
Risk
Win Probability 36.0%
Loss Probability 64.0%
Best Case $7.22 (+231.1%)
Worst Case $1.02 (-53.3%)
Volatility +104.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 28.0%
Avg Win +$3.14
Avg Loss -$0.73
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.02 (-53.3%)
Std Dev $2.27
Avg Norm Float 0.1157
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 148h 46m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 58S //TOTAL COST $2.18 //ASK PRICE EV $2.84 //BID PRICE EV $2.72 //ASK PROFIT $0.66 (+30.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.54 (+24.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.0% //BEST CASE $7.22 //VOLATILITY +104.4% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$7.22
+$5.04
+231.1%
$6.84
+$4.66
+213.8%
$0.38
5.2%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$3.23
+$1.05
+48.3%
$3.05
+$0.87
+39.9%
$0.18
5.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$2.64
+$0.46
+21.3%
$2.62
+$0.44
+20.2%
$0.02
0.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$2.05
-$0.13
-5.8%
$1.99
-$0.19
-8.7%
$0.06
3.1%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$1.72
-$0.46
-20.9%
$1.62
-$0.56
-25.7%
$0.10
6.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
20.0%
$1.65
-$0.53
-24.3%
$1.64
-$0.54
-24.8%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.14
-$1.04
-47.7%
$1.04
-$1.14
-52.3%
$0.10
8.9%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.02
-$1.16
-53.3%
$0.99
-$1.19
-54.6%
$0.03
2.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.069414,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 1.65,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:45:48.237051Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.0092552,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0175,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:55:09.453374Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.069414,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 7.2175,
"optimistic_value": 7.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:28:52.907267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.069414,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.234,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:00:05.739552Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.080983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.724,
"optimistic_value": 1.64,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:02.028646Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0751985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.141,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:53.037696Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.069414,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:18.227363Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.069414,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.054,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:44.745483Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5ac88f889e44f5e1e91adf49",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "512989991912631707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:55.339682Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "500605942755441071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:55.339682Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "497228243055130157",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:14.713963Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "491598743580381806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:27.077827Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "526501587736690685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:25.567161Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "524249787961446315",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:52:43.633727Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "524249787961223367",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:09:18.710012Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "505109542379577332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:09:18.710012Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "525375635593436155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:44.736505Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:11:07.485043Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-lake:6+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 6.7% $7.22 Mint Fan 16.0% $3.23 Royal Baroque 16.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 16.0% $2.05 Yeti Camo 16.0% $1.72 Teardown 6.7% $1.65 | $7.22 +292.3% | $2.39 +29.7% | 54.7% | +73.0% | $1.84 | — |
The Lake Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 16.7% $7.22 Mint Fan 10.0% $3.20 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.04 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.83 Teardown 16.7% $1.65 | $7.22 +240.4% | $2.73 +28.9% | 36.7% | +90.7% | $2.12 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.48 Cobalt Quartz  10.0% $1.22 | $38.92 +90.6% | $23.70 +16.1% | 45.0% | +69.6% | $20.42 | — |