The Lake Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Cyanospatter
3x $0.06
Mudder
2x $0.08
Safari Mesh
1x $0.20
Rose Nacre
1x $0.05
Sour Grapes
1x $0.06
Naval Shred Camo
1x $0.07
↓
Possible Outputs
Yeti Camo
8.0% $1.83
Cobalt Paisley
8.0% $1.14
Mint Fan
8.0% $1.08
Royal Baroque
8.0% $1.04
Reef Grief
8.0% $1.02
Anodized Navy
20.0% $1.01
Max Win
$1.83 (+68.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$0.90 (-17.6%)
Win %
16.0%
Volatility
+35.0%
Cost
$1.09
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.09
Ask Price EV $0.90 (-17.6%)
Bid Price EV $0.84 (-23.3%)
Ask Profit $-0.19 (-17.6%)
Bid Profit $-0.25 (-23.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+5.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.19
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.25
Risk
Win Probability 16.0%
Loss Probability 84.0%
Best Case $1.83 (+68.3%)
Worst Case $0.42 (-61.7%)
Volatility +35.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$0.40
Avg Loss -$0.30
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.42 (-61.7%)
Std Dev $0.38
Avg Norm Float 0.2141
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 39h
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Field-Tested
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 58S //TOTAL COST $1.09 //ASK PRICE EV $0.90 //BID PRICE EV $0.84 //ASK PROFIT $-0.19 (-17.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.25 (-23.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 16.0% //BEST CASE $1.83 //VOLATILITY +35.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$1.83
+$0.74
+68.3%
$1.62
+$0.53
+48.6%
$0.21
11.7%
—
PAPER WIN
8.0%
$1.14
+$0.05
+4.7%
$1.04
-$0.05
-4.6%
$0.10
8.9%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$1.08
-$0.01
-0.9%
$0.94
-$0.15
-13.8%
$0.14
13.0%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$1.04
-$0.05
-4.6%
$1.01
-$0.08
-7.3%
$0.03
2.9%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$1.02
-$0.07
-6.0%
$0.97
-$0.12
-11.0%
$0.05
5.3%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$1.01
-$0.08
-7.3%
$0.99
-$0.10
-9.2%
$0.02
2.0%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$0.61
-$0.48
-43.7%
$0.58
-$0.51
-46.8%
$0.03
5.5%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$0.42
-$0.67
-61.7%
$0.38
-$0.71
-65.1%
$0.04
9.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.12846,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 0.418,
"optimistic_value": 0.39,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:03.666934Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.017128,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0105,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:09:22.570981Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.12846,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 0.6134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.61,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:22:35.016965Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.12846,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 1.0805,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 0.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:36.887265Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.14987,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.8345,
"optimistic_value": 1.81,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:20.149064Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.139165,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.141,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:53.699923Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.12846,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 1.04,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:26.091485Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.12846,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 1.0245,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 0.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:48.019994Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5ac88f889e44f5e1e91adf49",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "520872141037733304",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:01:12.912646Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "499479989896281145",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:01:12.912646Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "512989991912631707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:45.839452Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "500605942755441071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:45.839452Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "497228243055130157",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:01:28.077284Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "508487189340902726",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:05.481804Z"
},
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "510739041954147766",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:55.068041Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "498354142900163767",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:17:59.702886Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "508487136896176706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:15.390363Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "525375740885121451",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:59:04.025379Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-lake:6+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 20.0% $7.22 Mint Fan 8.0% $3.13 Royal Baroque 8.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 8.0% $2.01 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.83 Teardown 20.0% $1.65 | $7.22 +234.1% | $2.84 +31.3% | 36.0% | +95.6% | $2.16 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.48 Cobalt Quartz  10.0% $1.22 | $38.92 +98.3% | $23.70 +20.7% | 45.0% | +72.4% | $19.63 | — |