The Lake Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Cyanospatter
2x $0.34
Mudder
1x $0.36
Safari Mesh
2x $0.47
Night Ops
1x $1.44
Sour Grapes
1x $0.32
Turquoise Pour
3x $0.38
↓
Possible Outputs
Night Ops
20.0% $7.22
Yeti Camo
8.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
8.0% $3.13
Cobalt Paisley
8.0% $2.65
Royal Baroque
8.0% $2.64
Reef Grief
8.0% $2.01
Max Win
$7.22 (+27.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.17 (-44.1%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+39.3%
Cost
$5.67
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.67
Ask Price EV $3.17 (-44.1%)
Bid Price EV $3.07 (-45.8%)
Ask Profit $-2.50 (-44.1%)
Bid Profit $-2.60 (-45.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.10 (+1.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.50
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.60
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $7.22 (+27.3%)
Worst Case $1.01 (-82.2%)
Volatility +39.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 72.0%
Avg Win +$1.55
Avg Loss -$3.51
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.01 (-82.2%)
Std Dev $2.23
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 149h 53m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$1.16 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Ops
—
Factory New
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 22S //TOTAL COST $5.67 //ASK PRICE EV $3.17 //BID PRICE EV $3.07 //ASK PROFIT $-2.50 (-44.1%) //BID PROFIT $-2.60 (-45.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $7.22 //VOLATILITY +39.3% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
20.0%
$7.22
+$1.55
+27.3%
$6.84
+$1.17
+20.6%
$0.38
5.2%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$4.46
-$1.21
-21.3%
$4.43
-$1.24
-21.9%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$3.13
-$2.54
-44.7%
$3.05
-$2.62
-46.2%
$0.08
2.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.65
-$3.02
-53.3%
$2.62
-$3.05
-53.8%
$0.03
1.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.64
-$3.03
-53.4%
$2.62
-$3.05
-53.8%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.01
-$3.66
-64.5%
$1.99
-$3.68
-64.9%
$0.02
1.2%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.65
-$4.02
-70.9%
$1.64
-$4.03
-71.1%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$1.01
-$4.66
-82.2%
$0.99
-$4.68
-82.5%
$0.02
2.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.041819999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 1.65,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:43.727512Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.005576,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0105,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:09:22.570981Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.041819999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 7.2175,
"optimistic_value": 7.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:28:52.907267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.041819999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.1345,
"optimistic_value": 3.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:50.093370Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.04878999999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.045305,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:31.828882Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.041819999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:42.472436Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.041819999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.014,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:31.406376Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_5ac88f889e44f5e1e91adf49",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "508487189340902726",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:05.481804Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "502857742726779976",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:18:51.858160Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "526501587736690685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:05.481804Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "524249787961446315",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:06:03.826501Z"
},
{
"price": 1.16,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "497228243055295937",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:06:03.826501Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-1cae9ba1aa38",
"listing_id": "506234592341299476",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Ops",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1cae9ba1aa38.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:04:58.054637Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:58:26.830104Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:14:02.348221Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "515242536109828297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:14:02.348221Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:14:02.348221Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-lake:6+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 20.0% $7.22 Mint Fan 8.0% $3.13 Royal Baroque 8.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 8.0% $2.01 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.83 Teardown 20.0% $1.65 | $7.22 +234.1% | $2.84 +31.3% | 36.0% | +95.6% | $2.16 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Lake Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.48 Cobalt Quartz  10.0% $1.22 | $38.92 +98.3% | $23.70 +20.7% | 45.0% | +72.4% | $19.63 | — |