The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Lake Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Nitro
3x $0.23
Calf Skin
1x $0.30
Candy Apple
1x $0.35
Mudder
3x $0.08
Safari Mesh
1x $0.20
Cyanospatter
1x $0.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Night Ops
16.7% $7.22
Check Engine
12.5% $3.75
Converter
12.5% $3.69
Hand Brake
12.5% $2.79
Brake Light
12.5% $1.73
Teardown
16.7% $1.65
Max Win
$7.22 (+169.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.14 (+17.3%)
Win %
54.2%
Volatility
+76.8%
Cost
$2.68
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.68
Ask Price EV $3.14 (+17.3%)
Bid Price EV $3.02 (+12.6%)
Ask Profit $0.46 (+17.3%)
Bid Profit $0.34 (+12.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.12 (+4.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.46
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.34
Risk
Win Probability 54.2%
Loss Probability 45.8%
Best Case $7.22 (+169.3%)
Worst Case $1.02 (-62.0%)
Volatility +76.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 45.8%
Avg Win +$1.90
Avg Loss -$1.24
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.02 (-62.0%)
Std Dev $2.06
Avg Norm Float 0.1153
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 148h 8m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Calf Skin
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Candy Apple
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 10M 44S //TOTAL COST $2.68 //ASK PRICE EV $3.14 //BID PRICE EV $3.02 //ASK PROFIT $0.46 (+17.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.34 (+12.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 54.2% //BEST CASE $7.22 //VOLATILITY +76.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$7.22
+$4.54
+169.3%
$6.84
+$4.16
+155.2%
$0.38
5.2%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$3.75
+$1.07
+40.0%
$3.65
+$0.97
+36.2%
$0.10
2.7%
—
WIN
12.5%
$3.69
+$1.01
+37.8%
$3.60
+$0.92
+34.3%
$0.09
2.5%
—
PAPER WIN
12.5%
$2.79
+$0.11
+3.9%
$2.59
-$0.09
-3.4%
$0.20
7.0%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$1.73
-$0.95
-35.4%
$1.68
-$1.00
-37.3%
$0.05
2.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$1.65
-$1.03
-38.4%
$1.64
-$1.04
-38.8%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
16.7%
$1.02
-$1.66
-62.0%
$0.99
-$1.69
-63.1%
$0.03
2.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.069174,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 1.65,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:01.052095Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0092232,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0175,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:31:11.503770Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.069174,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 7.2175,
"optimistic_value": 7.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:28:52.907267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.046116000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff8258cd7dac",
"realistic_value": 3.693,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Converter",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:17.009876Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff8258cd7dac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.11529,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c0a577a1a5b2",
"realistic_value": 2.7855,
"optimistic_value": 2.67,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake",
"conservative_value": 2.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:21:48.158478Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0a577a1a5b2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0092232,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
"realistic_value": 1.7305,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
"conservative_value": 1.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:13.542685Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.069174,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a2c7bfcb6607",
"realistic_value": 3.751,
"optimistic_value": 3.73,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Check Engine",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:55.137136Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a2c7bfcb6607.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_578fb94d00e23212ef5affcf",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "508486392214402502",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:25:04.286935Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-7f9562bfa6a5",
"listing_id": "658230515401384094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f9562bfa6a5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:34.503942Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-505c66da36c8",
"listing_id": "493850543431779772",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-505c66da36c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:18:08.944858Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "517494388633448878",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:46.581749Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "519746241188634056",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:46.581749Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "512989991912631707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:23:12.653705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "500605942755441071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:23:12.653705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "497228243055130157",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:55.336783Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "491598743580381806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:44.299982Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "526501587736690685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:19:37.683534Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:5+collection-set-lake:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Lake Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Hand Brake 12.5% $2.00 Check Engine 12.5% $1.98 Converter 12.5% $1.91 Brake Light 12.5% $1.73 Anodized Navy 16.7% $1.02 Night Ops 16.7% $0.61 | $2.00 +56.5% | $1.30 +1.7% | 50.0% | +41.4% | $1.28 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Lake Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 20.0% $7.22 Check Engine 10.0% $3.75 Converter 10.0% $3.69 Hand Brake 10.0% $2.79 Brake Light 10.0% $1.73 Teardown 20.0% $1.65 | $7.22 +164.4% | $3.17 +16.2% | 50.0% | +73.4% | $2.73 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×7+The Lake Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 10.0% $7.22 Check Engine 17.5% $3.75 Converter 17.5% $3.72 Hand Brake 17.5% $2.79 Brake Light 17.5% $1.73 Teardown 10.0% $1.65 | $7.22 +163.4% | $3.09 +12.6% | 62.5% | +56.5% | $2.74 | — |