The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Lake Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Nitro
2x $0.13
Candy Apple
2x $0.14
Calf Skin
1x $0.16
Cyanospatter
2x $0.06
Mudder
2x $0.08
Safari Mesh
1x $0.20
↓
Possible Outputs
Hand Brake
12.5% $2.00
Check Engine
12.5% $1.96
Converter
12.5% $1.91
Brake Light
12.5% $1.73
Anodized Navy
16.7% $1.01
Night Ops
16.7% $0.61
Max Win
$2.00 (+57.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.29 (+1.7%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+50.3%
Cost
$1.27
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $1.27
Ask Price EV $1.29 (+1.7%)
Bid Price EV $1.22 (-4.2%)
Ask Profit $0.02 (+1.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.05 (-4.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.08 (+5.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.02
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.05
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $2.00 (+57.8%)
Worst Case $0.42 (-67.1%)
Volatility +50.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 33.3%
Avg Win +$0.63
Avg Loss -$0.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.42 (-67.1%)
Std Dev $0.64
Avg Norm Float 0.2466
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 120h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Well-Worn
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Candy Apple
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Calf Skin
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Candy Apple
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 00S //TOTAL COST $1.27 //ASK PRICE EV $1.29 //BID PRICE EV $1.22 //ASK PROFIT $0.02 (+1.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.05 (-4.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $2.00 //VOLATILITY +50.3% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.5%
$2.00
+$0.73
+57.8%
$1.75
+$0.48
+37.8%
$0.25
12.7%
—
BIG WIN
12.5%
$1.96
+$0.69
+54.6%
$1.91
+$0.64
+50.4%
$0.05
2.7%
—
BIG WIN
12.5%
$1.91
+$0.64
+50.4%
$1.80
+$0.53
+41.7%
$0.11
5.8%
—
WIN
12.5%
$1.73
+$0.46
+36.3%
$1.67
+$0.40
+31.5%
$0.06
3.5%
—
LOSS
16.7%
$1.01
-$0.26
-20.4%
$0.99
-$0.28
-22.0%
$0.02
2.0%
—
NUKE
16.7%
$0.61
-$0.66
-51.7%
$0.58
-$0.69
-54.3%
$0.03
5.5%
—
NUKE
16.7%
$0.42
-$0.85
-67.1%
$0.38
-$0.89
-70.1%
$0.04
9.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.147966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 0.418,
"optimistic_value": 0.39,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:24.113099Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0197288,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0105,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:32.691007Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.147966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 0.6134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.61,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:22:35.016965Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.09864400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff8258cd7dac",
"realistic_value": 1.9104999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.9,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Converter",
"conservative_value": 1.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:25.176715Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff8258cd7dac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.24661,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c0a577a1a5b2",
"realistic_value": 2.0035,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake",
"conservative_value": 1.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:35:49.779017Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0a577a1a5b2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0197288,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
"realistic_value": 1.7305,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
"conservative_value": 1.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:31.130244Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.147966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a2c7bfcb6607",
"realistic_value": 1.964,
"optimistic_value": 1.95,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Check Engine",
"conservative_value": 1.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Check Engine (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:20.184268Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a2c7bfcb6607.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_578fb94d00e23212ef5affcf",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "514116741797457474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Well-Worn)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:30:06.020864Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-505c66da36c8",
"listing_id": "514116741797458230",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-505c66da36c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:37.826242Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-7f9562bfa6a5",
"listing_id": "515242641501311749",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Calf Skin",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f9562bfa6a5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:32:12.668804Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-505c66da36c8",
"listing_id": "515242536110409049",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-505c66da36c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:37.826242Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "502857742726643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:23.213909Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "520872141037733304",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:14:28.053516Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "499479989896281145",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:14:28.053516Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "512989991912631707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:55.339682Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "500605942755441071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:55.339682Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "497228243055130157",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:14.713963Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:5+collection-set-lake:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Lake Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 16.7% $7.22 Check Engine 12.5% $3.77 Converter 12.5% $3.67 Hand Brake 12.5% $2.88 Brake Light 12.5% $1.73 Teardown 16.7% $1.65 | $7.22 +173.4% | $3.15 +19.5% | 54.2% | +70.6% | $2.64 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Lake Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 20.0% $7.22 Check Engine 10.0% $3.75 Converter 10.0% $3.69 Hand Brake 10.0% $2.79 Brake Light 10.0% $1.73 Teardown 20.0% $1.65 | $7.22 +164.4% | $3.17 +16.2% | 50.0% | +73.4% | $2.73 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×7+The Lake Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 10.0% $7.22 Check Engine 17.5% $3.77 Converter 17.5% $3.69 Hand Brake 17.5% $2.79 Brake Light 17.5% $1.75 Teardown 10.0% $1.65 | $7.22 +164.4% | $3.09 +13.1% | 62.5% | +56.6% | $2.73 | — |