The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Lake Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Candy Apple
2x $0.35
Nitro
3x $0.35
Cyanospatter
2x $0.34
Mudder
1x $0.36
Safari Mesh
2x $0.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Hand Brake
12.5% $9.30
Night Ops
16.7% $7.22
Check Engine
12.5% $3.77
Converter
12.5% $3.67
Brake Light
12.5% $1.73
Teardown
16.7% $1.65
Max Win
$9.30 (+51.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.96 (-35.5%)
Win %
29.2%
Volatility
+47.0%
Cost
$6.13
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.13
Ask Price EV $3.96 (-35.5%)
Bid Price EV $3.83 (-37.6%)
Ask Profit $-2.17 (-35.5%)
Bid Profit $-2.30 (-37.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.13 (+2.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.17
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.30
Risk
Win Probability 29.2%
Loss Probability 70.8%
Best Case $9.30 (+51.7%)
Worst Case $1.01 (-83.5%)
Volatility +47.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.8%
Avg Win +$1.98
Avg Loss -$3.88
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.01 (-83.5%)
Std Dev $2.88
Avg Norm Float 0.0694
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 149h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Candy Apple
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Candy Apple
—
Factory New
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Minimal Wear
$1.16 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 10M 17S //TOTAL COST $6.13 //ASK PRICE EV $3.96 //BID PRICE EV $3.83 //ASK PROFIT $-2.17 (-35.5%) //BID PROFIT $-2.30 (-37.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 29.2% //BEST CASE $9.30 //VOLATILITY +47.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$9.30
+$3.17
+51.7%
$9.06
+$2.93
+47.8%
$0.24
2.6%
—
WIN
16.7%
$7.22
+$1.09
+17.7%
$6.84
+$0.71
+11.6%
$0.38
5.2%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$3.77
-$2.36
-38.4%
$3.65
-$2.48
-40.5%
$0.12
3.3%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$3.67
-$2.46
-40.1%
$3.60
-$2.53
-41.3%
$0.07
2.0%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$1.73
-$4.40
-71.8%
$1.67
-$4.46
-72.8%
$0.06
3.5%
—
NUKE
16.7%
$1.65
-$4.48
-73.1%
$1.64
-$4.49
-73.2%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
16.7%
$1.01
-$5.12
-83.5%
$0.99
-$5.14
-83.8%
$0.02
2.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.041622,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 1.65,
"optimistic_value": 1.65,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 1.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:45:48.237051Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.0055496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0105,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:32.691007Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.041622,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 7.2175,
"optimistic_value": 7.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 6.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T06:28:52.907267Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.027748000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff8258cd7dac",
"realistic_value": 3.6719999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Converter",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:51.877587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff8258cd7dac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06937,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c0a577a1a5b2",
"realistic_value": 9.298,
"optimistic_value": 9.2,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake",
"conservative_value": 9.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:51:31.434942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0a577a1a5b2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0055496,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
"realistic_value": 1.7305,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
"conservative_value": 1.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:31.130244Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.041622,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a2c7bfcb6607",
"realistic_value": 3.7739999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 3.76,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Check Engine",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:07.300566Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a2c7bfcb6607.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_578fb94d00e23212ef5affcf",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-505c66da36c8",
"listing_id": "493850543431779772",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-505c66da36c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:46.579763Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "517494388633448878",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:21.873689Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "519746241188634056",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:21.873689Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-505c66da36c8",
"listing_id": "490472738290883007",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-505c66da36c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:31:46.579763Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "516368436281895074",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:23:21.873689Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "508487189340902726",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:25.567161Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "502857742726779976",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:30:58.018058Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "526501587736690685",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:25.567161Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "524249787961446315",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:45.184812Z"
},
{
"price": 1.16,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "497228243055295937",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:45.184812Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:5+collection-set-lake:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Lake Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 16.7% $7.22 Check Engine 12.5% $3.77 Converter 12.5% $3.67 Hand Brake 12.5% $2.88 Brake Light 12.5% $1.73 Teardown 16.7% $1.65 | $7.22 +173.4% | $3.15 +19.5% | 54.2% | +70.6% | $2.64 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Lake Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Hand Brake 12.5% $2.00 Check Engine 12.5% $1.96 Converter 12.5% $1.91 Brake Light 12.5% $1.73 Anodized Navy 16.7% $1.01 Night Ops 16.7% $0.61 | $2.00 +57.8% | $1.29 +1.7% | 50.0% | +41.8% | $1.27 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Lake Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 20.0% $7.22 Check Engine 10.0% $3.75 Converter 10.0% $3.69 Hand Brake 10.0% $2.79 Brake Light 10.0% $1.73 Teardown 20.0% $1.65 | $7.22 +164.4% | $3.17 +16.2% | 50.0% | +73.4% | $2.73 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×7+The Lake Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 10.0% $7.22 Check Engine 17.5% $3.77 Converter 17.5% $3.69 Hand Brake 17.5% $2.79 Brake Light 17.5% $1.75 Teardown 10.0% $1.65 | $7.22 +164.4% | $3.09 +13.1% | 62.5% | +56.6% | $2.73 | — |