The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Slag
1x $0.50
Dark Sigil
1x $0.85
Hideout
1x $1.51
Sure Grip
4x $0.34
Nexus
2x $0.50
Resupply
1x $1.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Etch Lord
6.0% $13.06
Rising Sun
14.0% $12.22
Wave Breaker
14.0% $10.41
Control
14.0% $10.05
Just Smile
6.0% $9.42
Block-18
6.0% $8.90
Max Win
$13.06 (+50.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.23 (+6.4%)
Win %
74.0%
Volatility
+27.5%
Cost
$8.67
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $8.67
Ask Price EV $9.23 (+6.4%)
Bid Price EV $8.33 (-3.9%)
Ask Profit $0.56 (+6.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.34 (-3.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.90 (+10.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.56
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.34
Risk
Win Probability 74.0%
Loss Probability 26.0%
Best Case $13.06 (+50.6%)
Worst Case $4.23 (-51.2%)
Volatility +27.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$1.70
Avg Loss -$2.71
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.23 (-51.2%)
Std Dev $2.38
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 120h
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Minimal Wear
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Factory New
$1.47 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 38M 42S //TOTAL COST $8.67 //ASK PRICE EV $9.23 //BID PRICE EV $8.33 //ASK PROFIT $0.56 (+6.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.34 (-3.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 74.0% //BEST CASE $13.06 //VOLATILITY +27.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$13.06
+$4.39
+50.6%
$12.03
+$3.36
+38.8%
$1.03
7.9%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$12.22
+$3.55
+41.0%
$11.96
+$3.29
+37.9%
$0.26
2.2%
—
WIN
14.0%
$10.41
+$1.74
+20.1%
$8.98
+$0.31
+3.6%
$1.43
13.7%
—
PAPER WIN
14.0%
$10.05
+$1.38
+15.9%
$8.52
-$0.15
-1.7%
$1.53
15.2%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$9.42
+$0.75
+8.6%
$7.91
-$0.76
-8.8%
$1.51
16.0%
—
PAPER WIN
6.0%
$8.90
+$0.23
+2.6%
$7.77
-$0.90
-10.4%
$1.13
12.7%
—
PAPER WIN
14.0%
$8.70
+$0.03
+0.4%
$7.63
-$1.04
-12.0%
$1.07
12.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$8.01
-$0.66
-7.7%
$7.43
-$1.24
-14.3%
$0.58
7.2%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$5.82
-$2.85
-32.8%
$5.63
-$3.04
-35.1%
$0.19
3.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.23
-$4.44
-51.2%
$4.02
-$4.65
-53.6%
$0.21
5.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0398031,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 8.704,
"optimistic_value": 8.48,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 7.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:17:12.916885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.05579382085,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 10.051,
"optimistic_value": 9.89,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 8.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T23:11:45.509281Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 12.2245,
"optimistic_value": 11.99,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 11.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:46:04.188236Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06637683667,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 10.4105,
"optimistic_value": 10.4,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:32.776971Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.048881,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 5.822,
"optimistic_value": 5.78,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 5.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:03:22.269508Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 8.005,
"optimistic_value": 7.9,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:46:06.394238Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.046917031250000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06983,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.418000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 9.39,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:20:09.923596Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0432149938,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.234,
"optimistic_value": 4.22,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 4.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:46:22.463999Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_563710ec4f4472b31f52ee8b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "493850324808131632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:49:13.089865Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:44.268653Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "519746022669746780",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:29.089504Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "499479989896003765",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:05:45.452313Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "526501587736832201",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Nexus (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:37.201436Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "491598524990001986",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Nexus (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:00:37.201436Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "622201718411883996",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:05:45.452313Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "626705318055649559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:05:45.452313Z"
},
{
"price": 1.47,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "521997988015316958",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:55.193904Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "500605092753353075",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:59:53.717373Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-33:3+collection-set-community-35:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.41 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 Tosai 14.0% $2.55 Etch Lord 6.0% $2.49 Analog Input 6.0% $1.97 Just Smile 6.0% $1.50 | $4.41 +127.3% | $2.20 +13.4% | 46.0% | +50.9% | $1.94 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Fever Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 6.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.41 Block-18 6.0% $4.19 Just Smile 6.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 14.0% $2.95 Control 14.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +56.6% | $3.11 +9.6% | 46.0% | +23.2% | $2.84 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Fever Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 6.0% $4.41 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Just Smile 14.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 6.0% $2.95 Control 6.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +61.7% | $3.23 +17.4% | 60.0% | +24.1% | $2.75 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.41 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Tosai 10.0% $2.55 Etch Lord 10.0% $2.49 Analog Input 10.0% $1.97 Just Smile 10.0% $1.50 | $4.41 +130.9% | $2.24 +17.1% | 50.0% | +50.5% | $1.91 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×9+The Fever Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 2.0% $4.41 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 2.0% $2.92 Control 2.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +58.3% | $3.29 +17.1% | 58.0% | +23.1% | $2.81 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Fever Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.41 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.32 Rising Sun 4.0% $2.95 Control 4.0% $2.76 | $4.45 +59.4% | $3.26 +16.8% | 56.0% | +23.6% | $2.79 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Fever Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 8.0% $4.41 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Tosai 8.0% $2.55 Etch Lord 12.0% $2.49 Analog Input 12.0% $1.97 Rising Sun 8.0% $1.54 | $4.41 +126.2% | $2.26 +16.0% | 52.0% | +48.1% | $1.95 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Fever Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Serpent Strike 12.0% $4.41 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Tosai 12.0% $2.55 Etch Lord 8.0% $2.49 Analog Input 8.0% $1.97 Rising Sun 12.0% $1.54 | $4.41 +123.9% | $2.23 +13.3% | 48.0% | +49.7% | $1.97 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  16.7% $23.51 Searing Rage  16.7% $15.95 Jawbreaker  16.7% $14.90 Shinobu  16.7% $14.72 Olympus  16.7% $8.81 K.O. Factory  16.7% $8.18 | $23.51 +96.4% | $14.34 +19.8% | 66.7% | +42.6% | $11.97 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Fever Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Inheritance  25.0% $135.61 Printstream  25.0% $127.68 Bad Trip  25.0% $74.69 Chrome Cannon  25.0% $64.35 | $135.61 +58.2% | $100.58 +17.3% | 50.0% | +36.6% | $85.74 | — |