The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Mainframe
3x $0.06
Cold Fusion
2x $0.07
Dark Chamber
2x $0.07
Snow Splash
2x $0.08
Aeolian Dark
1x $0.12
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
12.5% $2.48
The Daily Deagle
12.5% $1.10
Creep
12.5% $0.94
Grip Tape
12.5% $0.75
Aeolian Light
12.5% $0.74
Facility Negative
12.5% $0.48
Max Win
$2.48 (+181.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$0.91 (+3.7%)
Win %
37.5%
Volatility
+72.5%
Cost
$0.88
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $0.88
Ask Price EV $0.91 (+3.7%)
Bid Price EV $0.87 (-1.3%)
Ask Profit $0.03 (+3.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.01 (-1.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+5.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.03
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.01
Risk
Win Probability 37.5%
Loss Probability 62.5%
Best Case $2.48 (+181.9%)
Worst Case $0.39 (-55.7%)
Volatility +72.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 37.5%
Avg Win +$0.63
Avg Loss -$0.32
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.39 (-55.7%)
Std Dev $0.64
Avg Norm Float 0.1794
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 56m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Minimal Wear
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Minimal Wear
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 55S //TOTAL COST $0.88 //ASK PRICE EV $0.91 //BID PRICE EV $0.87 //ASK PROFIT $0.03 (+3.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.01 (-1.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 37.5% //BEST CASE $2.48 //VOLATILITY +72.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.5%
$2.48
+$1.60
+181.9%
$2.47
+$1.59
+180.7%
$0.01
0.4%
—
WIN
12.5%
$1.10
+$0.22
+25.4%
$1.10
+$0.22
+25.0%
$0.00
0.3%
—
PAPER WIN
12.5%
$0.94
+$0.06
+6.8%
$0.86
-$0.02
-2.3%
$0.08
8.5%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.75
-$0.13
-14.3%
$0.71
-$0.17
-19.3%
$0.04
5.9%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$0.74
-$0.14
-16.3%
$0.66
-$0.22
-25.0%
$0.08
10.4%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.48
-$0.40
-45.1%
$0.38
-$0.50
-56.8%
$0.10
21.4%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.41
-$0.47
-53.0%
$0.39
-$0.49
-55.7%
$0.02
5.7%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$0.39
-$0.49
-55.7%
$0.38
-$0.50
-56.8%
$0.01
2.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.143544,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 0.94,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 0.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:45.779029Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.1489269,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 2.4805,
"optimistic_value": 2.47,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 2.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:23:13.880438Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.10406939999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 1.1035000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.1,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 1.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:08:13.782397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.089715,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 0.4135,
"optimistic_value": 0.41,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 0.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:53:43.826634Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.1345725,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 0.7545,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:54.971728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.089715,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 0.39,
"optimistic_value": 0.39,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:56:25.857524Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.11662950000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 0.737,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:35.251852Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.089715,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 0.4835,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:55.667650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_54c7d784b22fee5c9da26e65",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "492724590626410281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:02:09.926022Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "496102290328404239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:06.083826Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "806843527059547665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:06.083826Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "515242588554249181",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:13.135599Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "510738936594594550",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:14:13.135599Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "497228024529123485",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:05:44.599503Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "497228190141809201",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:26.975138Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "519746188258523528",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:26.975138Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "496102290329307083",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:54.583371Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "520872088106599836",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:05:44.364891Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 12.5% $2.48 Exchanger 12.5% $2.42 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.23 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.22 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $1.10 Creep 12.5% $0.94 | $2.48 +92.3% | $1.61 +24.9% | 50.0% | +46.5% | $1.29 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 10.0% $2.48 Exchanger 10.0% $2.42 Facility Negative 10.0% $2.22 Co-Processor 10.0% $2.21 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $1.02 Creep 15.0% $0.94 | $2.48 +127.6% | $1.45 +32.7% | 40.0% | +56.9% | $1.09 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough  30.0% $6.12 Nuclear Garden  13.3% $3.34 Trace Lock  30.0% $2.22 Core Breach  13.3% $1.31 Random Access  13.3% $1.19 | $6.12 +138.9% | $3.28 +28.2% | 43.3% | +76.6% | $2.56 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  40.0% $27.17 Control Panel  30.0% $26.29 Remote Control  30.0% $4.11 | $27.17 +52.7% | $19.99 +12.4% | 70.0% | +58.5% | $17.79 | — |