The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Cold Fusion
2x $0.25
Mainframe
3x $0.58
Snow Splash
1x $0.26
Vendetta
1x $0.29
Snow Splash
2x $0.34
Aeolian Dark
1x $1.33
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
12.5% $17.37
Exchanger
12.5% $2.42
Creep
12.5% $2.37
The Daily Deagle
12.5% $2.33
Co-Processor
12.5% $2.26
Facility Negative
12.5% $2.22
Max Win
$17.37 (+193.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.13 (-30.1%)
Win %
12.5%
Volatility
+84.7%
Cost
$5.91
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.91
Ask Price EV $4.13 (-30.1%)
Bid Price EV $4.01 (-32.1%)
Ask Profit $-1.78 (-30.1%)
Bid Profit $-1.90 (-32.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.12 (+2.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.78
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.90
Risk
Win Probability 12.5%
Loss Probability 87.5%
Best Case $17.37 (+193.9%)
Worst Case $1.88 (-68.1%)
Volatility +84.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 87.5%
Avg Win +$11.46
Avg Loss -$3.67
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.88 (-68.1%)
Std Dev $5.01
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 141h 5m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Cold Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$1.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.66 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Factory New
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 12S //TOTAL COST $5.91 //ASK PRICE EV $4.13 //BID PRICE EV $4.01 //ASK PROFIT $-1.78 (-30.1%) //BID PROFIT $-1.90 (-32.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 12.5% //BEST CASE $17.37 //VOLATILITY +84.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.5%
$17.37
+$11.46
+193.9%
$16.98
+$11.07
+187.3%
$0.39
2.2%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.42
-$3.49
-59.1%
$2.36
-$3.55
-60.1%
$0.06
2.3%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.37
-$3.54
-59.8%
$2.35
-$3.56
-60.2%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.33
-$3.58
-60.5%
$2.25
-$3.66
-61.9%
$0.08
3.6%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.26
-$3.65
-61.8%
$2.04
-$3.87
-65.5%
$0.22
9.7%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.22
-$3.69
-62.4%
$2.16
-$3.75
-63.5%
$0.06
2.9%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.19
-$3.72
-62.9%
$2.10
-$3.81
-64.5%
$0.09
4.3%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$1.88
-$4.03
-68.1%
$1.86
-$4.05
-68.5%
$0.02
1.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.055968,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 2.3735,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 2.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T21:38:10.087832Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.058066799999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 17.3705,
"optimistic_value": 17.36,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 16.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:46.180805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.040576799999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.3339999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.32,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:57:19.004322Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.03498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 2.26,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:07:40.400884Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.052469999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 2.194,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 2.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:02:13.677830Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.03498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 2.4155,
"optimistic_value": 2.37,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 2.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:01:59.770296Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.045474,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.8835,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:31.192640Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.03498,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 2.2235,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:04:49.831265Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_54c7d784b22fee5c9da26e65",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "500605889840729975",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:56.493903Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-373e7e49f479",
"listing_id": "500605837398877331",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Cold Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-373e7e49f479.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:56.493903Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "490472738292969171",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:08.872551Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "498354037510400899",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:08.872551Z"
},
{
"price": 1.34,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "523123091079502558",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:08.872551Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "498354089952945607",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:07:22.167234Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "519746188257911240",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:19.558608Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "508487189340139490",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:53:53.963915Z"
},
{
"price": 0.66,
"skin_id": "skin-d269db65b6ea",
"listing_id": "520872088105448808",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d269db65b6ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:53:53.963915Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "494976390475599702",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:04:11.527279Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:5+collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 12.5% $2.51 Exchanger 12.5% $2.42 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.26 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.22 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $1.12 Creep 12.5% $0.94 | $2.51 +104.3% | $1.62 +32.1% | 50.0% | +49.0% | $1.23 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Achroma Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Acheron 12.5% $2.51 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $1.12 Creep 12.5% $0.94 Grip Tape 12.5% $0.81 Aeolian Light 12.5% $0.72 Facility Negative 12.5% $0.45 | $2.51 +185.6% | $0.92 +4.4% | 37.5% | +67.9% | $0.88 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Achroma Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 10.0% $2.65 Exchanger 10.0% $2.42 Co-Processor 10.0% $2.26 Facility Negative 10.0% $2.22 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $1.15 Creep 15.0% $0.93 | $2.65 +102.3% | $1.50 +14.2% | 40.0% | +47.9% | $1.31 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×2+The Achroma Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Nuclear Garden  6.7% $55.76 Breakthrough  40.0% $26.93 Random Access  6.7% $19.60 Trace Lock  40.0% $15.24 Core Breach  6.7% $8.54 | $55.76 +201.9% | $22.46 +21.6% | 53.3% | +58.4% | $18.47 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6+The Achroma Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | The End  40.0% $27.17 Control Panel  30.0% $26.29 Remote Control  30.0% $4.11 | $27.17 +55.6% | $19.99 +14.5% | 70.0% | +59.6% | $17.46 | — |