The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Light Box
1x $0.15
Motorized
2x $0.28
Hideout
1x $0.31
Mint Fan
5x $0.41
Cobalt Paisley
1x $0.42
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
30.0% $18.08
Royal Guard
30.0% $5.66
Block-18
8.0% $1.33
Analog Input
8.0% $1.10
Etch Lord
8.0% $0.79
Just Smile
8.0% $0.78
Max Win
$18.08 (+218.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$7.50 (+32.1%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+126.7%
Cost
$5.68
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.68
Ask Price EV $7.50 (+32.1%)
Bid Price EV $6.49 (+14.2%)
Ask Profit $1.82 (+32.1%)
Bid Profit $0.81 (+14.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.01 (+17.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.82
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.81
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+218.2%)
Worst Case $0.75 (-86.8%)
Volatility +126.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$12.40
Avg Loss -$2.71
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.75 (-86.8%)
Std Dev $7.19
Avg Norm Float 0.1999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 147h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
$1.09 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Minimal Wear
$1.10 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 30S //TOTAL COST $5.68 //ASK PRICE EV $7.50 //BID PRICE EV $6.49 //ASK PROFIT $1.82 (+32.1%) //BID PROFIT $0.81 (+14.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +126.7% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$18.08
+$12.40
+218.2%
$15.21
+$9.53
+167.8%
$2.87
15.9%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$5.66
-$0.02
-0.3%
$5.25
-$0.43
-7.6%
$0.41
7.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.33
-$4.35
-76.6%
$1.30
-$4.38
-77.1%
$0.03
2.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.10
-$4.58
-80.6%
$0.98
-$4.70
-82.7%
$0.12
10.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.79
-$4.89
-86.1%
$0.69
-$4.99
-87.9%
$0.10
12.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.78
-$4.90
-86.3%
$0.71
-$4.97
-87.5%
$0.07
9.0%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.75
-$4.93
-86.8%
$0.71
-$4.97
-87.5%
$0.04
5.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.1499625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 18.0765,
"optimistic_value": 17.94,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 15.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.11997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 5.6610000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 5.57,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 5.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:32:02.311226Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.747,
"optimistic_value": 0.74,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:02:29.474101Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.13434140625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 1.3305,
"optimistic_value": 1.32,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 1.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:24.376063Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.787,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:47:25.874335Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.19995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.78,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:38:27.916348Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.12374105699999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.1005,
"optimistic_value": 1.09,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:44:31.658703Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_525a6d5e33aa9bbf9c9cfc1f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514115891842488654",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:47:41.469685Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "496102237884868559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:55:25.514540Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "509613089303862039",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:04.823690Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "493850490549237988",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:55:25.514540Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "503983589619410563",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:52:22.177031Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "496102290329888807",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:52:16.975667Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "518620288314367912",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:52:22.177031Z"
},
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "514116688950502446",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:52:06.624420Z"
},
{
"price": 1.09,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "526501587737996945",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:52:06.624420Z"
},
{
"price": 1.1,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "516368488726622894",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:52:06.624420Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.71 Block-18 8.0% $4.18 Analog Input 8.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 8.0% $1.72 Just Smile 8.0% $1.61 | $38.92 +172.4% | $16.75 +17.2% | 30.0% | +102.5% | $14.29 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.23 Block-18 8.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.73 Hybrid 8.0% $0.71 Just Smile 8.0% $0.66 | $6.93 +168.6% | $2.73 +5.8% | 30.0% | +104.5% | $2.58 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.66 Block-18 16.0% $1.33 Analog Input 16.0% $1.10 Just Smile 16.0% $0.78 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.75 | $18.08 +662.7% | $3.13 +31.9% | 20.0% | +214.9% | $2.37 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.44 Block-18 6.0% $1.31 Analog Input 6.0% $1.10 Just Smile 6.0% $0.78 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.75 | $18.08 +162.0% | $8.51 +23.3% | 35.0% | +101.4% | $6.90 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.69 Block-18 2.0% $4.18 Analog Input 2.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 2.0% $1.69 Just Smile 2.0% $1.61 | $38.92 +98.3% | $23.92 +21.8% | 45.0% | +69.2% | $19.63 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 40.0% $13.66 Block-18 4.0% $4.18 Analog Input 4.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 4.0% $1.69 Just Smile 4.0% $1.61 | $38.92 +120.1% | $21.51 +21.7% | 40.0% | +80.6% | $17.68 | — |