The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Slag
1x $0.12
Irezumi
1x $0.13
Motorized
1x $0.14
Light Box
1x $0.14
Yeti Camo
2x $0.26
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
30.0% $6.93
Royal Guard
30.0% $1.23
Block-18
8.0% $0.77
Etch Lord
8.0% $0.73
Hybrid
8.0% $0.71
Analog Input
8.0% $0.65
Max Win
$6.93 (+166.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.73 (+5.0%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+106.1%
Cost
$2.60
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.60
Ask Price EV $2.73 (+5.0%)
Bid Price EV $2.32 (-10.8%)
Ask Profit $0.13 (+5.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.28 (-10.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.41 (+15.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.13
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.28
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $6.93 (+166.6%)
Worst Case $0.64 (-75.4%)
Volatility +106.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$4.33
Avg Loss -$1.67
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.64 (-75.4%)
Std Dev $2.76
Avg Norm Float 0.4128
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 149h 10m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Well-Worn
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 55M 54S //TOTAL COST $2.60 //ASK PRICE EV $2.73 //BID PRICE EV $2.32 //ASK PROFIT $0.13 (+5.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.28 (-10.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +106.1% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$6.93
+$4.33
+166.6%
$5.76
+$3.16
+121.5%
$1.17
16.9%
—
NUKE
30.0%
$1.23
-$1.37
-52.6%
$1.16
-$1.44
-55.4%
$0.07
5.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.77
-$1.83
-70.3%
$0.71
-$1.89
-72.7%
$0.06
7.9%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.73
-$1.87
-71.9%
$0.58
-$2.02
-77.7%
$0.15
20.5%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.71
-$1.89
-72.7%
$0.57
-$2.03
-78.1%
$0.14
19.7%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.65
-$1.95
-74.9%
$0.60
-$2.00
-76.9%
$0.05
8.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$0.64
-$1.96
-75.4%
$0.57
-$2.03
-78.1%
$0.07
11.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.30957,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 6.931,
"optimistic_value": 6.84,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 5.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.247656,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 1.2315,
"optimistic_value": 1.2,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:52:44.241978Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.41276,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:11.263775Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.277323125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 0.771,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:11:50.072397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.41276,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.73,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:07.825109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.41276,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.6405000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.63,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:40.366302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.2554406536,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 0.6535,
"optimistic_value": 0.65,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:14.206543Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_525a6d5e33aa9bbf9c9cfc1f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "525375740885130919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Slag (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:11.264537Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "512990789045330051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:02:05.307609Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "524249735518436271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:15:36.607560Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "490472738292849795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:15.749825Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "514116688950783354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:08.648744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "492724538182088361",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:08.648744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "493850490550033732",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:56.430021Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "519746188258491416",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Well-Worn)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:56.430021Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "525375688037571919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:13.429287Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "511864888985075589",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:50.856676Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.69 Block-18 8.0% $4.18 Analog Input 8.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 8.0% $1.70 Just Smile 8.0% $1.61 | $38.92 +185.6% | $16.75 +22.9% | 60.0% | +107.5% | $13.63 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.44 Block-18 6.0% $1.31 Analog Input 6.0% $1.06 Just Smile 6.0% $0.78 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.75 | $18.08 +179.0% | $8.51 +31.3% | 35.0% | +108.0% | $6.48 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.44 Block-18 16.0% $1.31 Analog Input 16.0% $1.04 Just Smile 16.0% $0.78 Hybrid 16.0% $0.75 | $18.08 +659.5% | $3.09 +29.8% | 20.0% | +213.9% | $2.38 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.44 Block-18 4.0% $1.36 Analog Input 4.0% $1.07 Just Smile 4.0% $0.78 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.74 | $18.08 +143.6% | $9.59 +29.3% | 40.0% | +92.9% | $7.42 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 45.0% $5.44 Block-18 2.0% $1.36 Analog Input 2.0% $1.07 Just Smile 2.0% $0.78 Etch Lord 2.0% $0.74 | $18.08 +109.2% | $10.67 +23.5% | 45.0% | +77.2% | $8.64 | — |