The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Motorized
2x $0.36
Light Box
1x $0.50
Dark Sigil
1x $0.84
Yeti Camo
2x $1.86
Reef Grief
1x $2.20
Mint Fan
1x $3.33
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
30.0% $38.92
Royal Guard
30.0% $13.69
Etch Lord
8.0% $10.80
Just Smile
8.0% $9.45
Hybrid
8.0% $8.10
Block-18
8.0% $4.18
Max Win
$38.92 (+103.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.63 (-2.4%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+71.8%
Cost
$19.09
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.09
Ask Price EV $18.63 (-2.4%)
Bid Price EV $17.11 (-10.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.46 (-2.4%)
Bid Profit $-1.98 (-10.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.52 (+7.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.46
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.98
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+103.9%)
Worst Case $2.99 (-84.3%)
Volatility +71.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$19.83
Avg Loss -$9.16
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.99 (-84.3%)
Std Dev $13.70
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 101h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Yeti Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.20 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mint Fan
—
Factory New
$3.33 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Factory New
$3.65 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Factory New
$3.96 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 55M 18S //TOTAL COST $19.09 //ASK PRICE EV $18.63 //BID PRICE EV $17.11 //ASK PROFIT $-0.46 (-2.4%) //BID PROFIT $-1.98 (-10.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +71.8% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
30.0%
$38.92
+$19.83
+103.9%
$34.38
+$15.29
+80.1%
$4.54
11.7%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$13.69
-$5.40
-28.3%
$13.24
-$5.85
-30.6%
$0.45
3.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$10.80
-$8.29
-43.4%
$10.67
-$8.42
-44.1%
$0.13
1.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$9.45
-$9.64
-50.5%
$9.40
-$9.69
-50.8%
$0.05
0.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
8.0%
$8.10
-$10.99
-57.6%
$8.09
-$11.00
-57.6%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$4.18
-$14.91
-78.1%
$4.17
-$14.92
-78.2%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$2.99
-$16.10
-84.3%
$2.96
-$16.13
-84.5%
$0.03
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.05241749999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.04193399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.693000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 13.63,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:06.403295Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 8.1,
"optimistic_value": 8.1,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 8.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:04.695017Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.04695734375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.18,
"optimistic_value": 4.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:53:19.259981Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 10.804499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 10.78,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 10.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:54:46.441825Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.4505,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 9.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:21.181321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.043252125399999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:51:01.026892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_525a6d5e33aa9bbf9c9cfc1f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "493850490549237988",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:38.486246Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "492723793462142529",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:38.486246Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "510738989040367846",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:07.313652Z"
},
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "509613089305575423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:06:28.241433Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "516368488726785974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:14.550967Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"listing_id": "508487189340868706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:00:14.550967Z"
},
{
"price": 2.2,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "510739041953517838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:30.052386Z"
},
{
"price": 3.33,
"skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"listing_id": "502857689863312504",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:58:10.686583Z"
},
{
"price": 3.65,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "619949307134804143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:30.934207Z"
},
{
"price": 3.96,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "640216044966789251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:57:39.911736Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $38.92 Royal Guard 30.0% $13.69 Block-18 8.0% $4.18 Analog Input 8.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 8.0% $1.70 Just Smile 8.0% $1.61 | $38.92 +185.6% | $16.75 +22.9% | 60.0% | +107.5% | $13.63 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.93 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.23 Block-18 8.0% $0.77 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.73 Hybrid 8.0% $0.71 Analog Input 8.0% $0.65 | $6.93 +166.6% | $2.73 +5.0% | 30.0% | +103.7% | $2.60 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 35.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 35.0% $5.44 Block-18 6.0% $1.31 Analog Input 6.0% $1.06 Just Smile 6.0% $0.78 Etch Lord 6.0% $0.75 | $18.08 +179.0% | $8.51 +31.3% | 35.0% | +108.0% | $6.48 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.44 Block-18 16.0% $1.31 Analog Input 16.0% $1.04 Just Smile 16.0% $0.78 Hybrid 16.0% $0.75 | $18.08 +659.5% | $3.09 +29.8% | 20.0% | +213.9% | $2.38 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 40.0% $5.44 Block-18 4.0% $1.36 Analog Input 4.0% $1.07 Just Smile 4.0% $0.78 Etch Lord 4.0% $0.74 | $18.08 +143.6% | $9.59 +29.3% | 40.0% | +92.9% | $7.42 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $18.08 Royal Guard 45.0% $5.44 Block-18 2.0% $1.36 Analog Input 2.0% $1.07 Just Smile 2.0% $0.78 Etch Lord 2.0% $0.74 | $18.08 +109.2% | $10.67 +23.5% | 45.0% | +77.2% | $8.64 | — |