The Revolution Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn StatTrak™
Inputs
Fragments
1x $0.14
Re.built
1x $0.16
Fragment
4x $0.29
RMX
3x $0.36
Bock Blocks
1x $0.43
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
16.0% $7.45
Firebreathing
16.0% $3.97
Urban Sovereign
16.0% $2.69
Galigator
16.0% $2.39
Amberline
16.0% $2.25
Emphorosaur-S
4.0% $1.82
Max Win
$7.45 (+140.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.23 (+4.3%)
Win %
32.0%
Volatility
+65.6%
Cost
$3.10
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.10
Ask Price EV $3.23 (+4.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.73 (-12.0%)
Ask Profit $0.13 (+4.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.37 (-12.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.51 (+16.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.13
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.37
Risk
Win Probability 32.0%
Loss Probability 68.0%
Best Case $7.45 (+140.4%)
Worst Case $0.86 (-72.1%)
Volatility +65.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 36.0%
Avg Win +$2.61
Avg Loss -$1.03
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.87 (-71.9%)
Std Dev $2.03
Avg Norm Float 0.4475
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 155h 3m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Re.built
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 12M 38S //TOTAL COST $3.10 //ASK PRICE EV $3.23 //BID PRICE EV $2.73 //ASK PROFIT $0.13 (+4.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.37 (-12.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 32.0% //BEST CASE $7.45 //VOLATILITY +65.6% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
16.0%
$7.45
+$4.35
+140.4%
$5.07
+$1.97
+63.5%
$2.38
32.0%
—
WIN
16.0%
$3.97
+$0.87
+28.2%
$3.63
+$0.53
+17.1%
$0.34
8.7%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$2.69
-$0.41
-13.2%
$2.67
-$0.43
-13.9%
$0.02
0.8%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$2.39
-$0.71
-22.9%
$2.19
-$0.91
-29.4%
$0.20
8.4%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$2.25
-$0.85
-27.4%
$2.21
-$0.89
-28.7%
$0.04
1.8%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.82
-$1.28
-41.3%
$1.79
-$1.31
-42.3%
$0.03
1.7%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$1.38
-$1.72
-55.5%
$1.11
-$1.99
-64.2%
$0.27
19.6%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.87
-$2.23
-71.8%
$0.73
-$2.37
-76.5%
$0.14
16.4%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.87
-$2.23
-71.9%
$0.72
-$2.38
-76.8%
$0.15
17.2%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.86
-$2.24
-72.1%
$0.74
-$2.36
-76.1%
$0.12
14.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.44749,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 3.9739999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 3.96,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.825383Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.44749,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.3905,
"optimistic_value": 2.38,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:57.054699Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.44749,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 7.452,
"optimistic_value": 7.41,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.814170Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.44749,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 2.2505,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 2.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:13:56.404276Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.44749,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 2.6905,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.487183Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.3356175,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 1.38,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 1.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:57.002230Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.35799200000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 1.8210000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.8,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 1.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:25:56.308257Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.4695442000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 0.87,
"optimistic_value": 0.87,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T03:44:54.806317Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.268494,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 0.8634999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.86,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Neoqueen (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:50.035364Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.44749,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 0.8734999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.87,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 0.73,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:14:42.838146Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_518d9b634019a3735764bea2",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "499480042828560601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:44.387635Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-db200bb3a1ef",
"listing_id": "499480042829001745",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Re.built (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Re.built",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db200bb3a1ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:03:02.605118Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "528753387758395233",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:37.087012Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "499479989897464717",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:37.087012Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "529879340432903412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:37.087012Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "506235389470454088",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:37.087012Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "527627487625008320",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:59:33.313687Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "503983589619721927",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:59:33.313687Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "506235389469140196",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:59:33.313687Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "521998040963336874",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:54.854931Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-32:2+collection-set-community-37:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 16.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 16.0% $6.12 Galigator 16.0% $3.47 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $2.96 Amberline 16.0% $2.88 Emphorosaur-S 4.0% $1.82 | $10.69 +213.6% | $4.42 +29.5% | 48.0% | +82.4% | $3.41 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 16.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 16.0% $10.78 Amberline 16.0% $6.10 Galigator 16.0% $5.31 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $4.72 Emphorosaur-S 4.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +165.5% | $7.53 +18.0% | 32.0% | +67.8% | $6.38 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.57 Emphorosaur-S 2.0% $11.80 | $51.27 +186.9% | $24.04 +34.5% | 54.0% | +76.7% | $17.87 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.57 Emphorosaur-S 10.0% $11.80 | $51.27 +316.5% | $16.29 +32.3% | 50.0% | +99.4% | $12.31 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 14.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 14.0% $6.12 Galigator 14.0% $3.49 Amberline 14.0% $2.88 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $2.87 Emphorosaur-S 6.0% $1.82 | $10.69 +250.6% | $4.00 +31.2% | 42.0% | +90.2% | $3.05 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 12.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 12.0% $6.12 Galigator 12.0% $3.49 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $2.96 Amberline 12.0% $2.88 Emphorosaur-S 8.0% $1.82 | $10.69 +287.4% | $3.61 +30.9% | 60.0% | +96.8% | $2.76 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 8.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 8.0% $10.78 Amberline 8.0% $6.10 Galigator 8.0% $5.59 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $4.90 Emphorosaur-S 12.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +314.1% | $5.08 +24.3% | 52.0% | +91.6% | $4.09 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 6.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 6.0% $10.78 Amberline 6.0% $6.10 Galigator 6.0% $5.59 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $4.90 Emphorosaur-S 14.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +364.0% | $4.46 +22.1% | 44.0% | +94.9% | $3.65 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Classified → Covert Factory New ST | Queen's Gambit  30.0% $843.46 Fully Tuned  30.0% $484.90 Temukau  20.0% $288.76 Head Shot  20.0% $191.11 | $843.46 +124.6% | $494.48 +31.7% | 60.0% | +67.1% | $375.58 | — |