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The Revolution Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5

Classified → Covert MW ST 10 items
Battle-Scarred -6.0%Factory New +26.6%Field-Tested +19.5%Minimal Wear +17.8%Well-Worn -4.0%
Contract
Classified → Covert Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Wild Child
UMP-45 | Wild Child
2x $5.88
Wicked Sick
P2000 | Wicked Sick
3x $9.54
Deathgaze
P90 | Deathgaze
5x $16.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
25.0% $286.65
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
25.0% $201.70
Temukau
M4A4 | Temukau
25.0% $126.64
Head Shot
AK-47 | Head Shot
25.0% $70.95
Max Win
$286.65 (+96.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$171.48 (+17.8%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+55.7%
Cost
$145.60
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGE
Total Cost $145.60
Ask Price EV $171.48 (+17.8%)
Bid Price EV $141.80 (-2.6%)
Ask Profit $25.88 (+17.8%)
Bid Profit $-3.80 (-2.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $29.69 (+20.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$25.88
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.80
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $286.65 (+96.9%)
Worst Case $70.95 (-51.3%)
Volatility +55.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 25.0%
Avg Win +$98.57
Avg Loss -$46.80
Bottom 5% Outcome $70.95 (-51.3%)
Std Dev $81.08
Avg Norm Float 0.1485
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 155h 6m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Sign in to Validate
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Wild Child
—
Field-Tested
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested)
$5.88 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Wild Child
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear)
$9.48 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Wicked Sick
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)
$9.54 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Wicked Sick
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)
$11.50 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Wicked Sick
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)
$11.78 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Deathgaze
—
Field-Tested
StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested)
$16.00 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Deathgaze
—
Field-Tested
StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested)
$18.40 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Deathgaze
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)
$20.55 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Deathgaze
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)
$20.58 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Deathgaze
—
Minimal Wear
StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)
$21.89 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 07M 39S //TOTAL COST $145.60 //ASK PRICE EV $171.48 //BID PRICE EV $141.80 //ASK PROFIT $25.88 (+17.8%) //BID PROFIT $-3.80 (-2.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $286.65 //VOLATILITY +55.7% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Click Spin to start.
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.
Raw payload (JSON) 
{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Classified|stattrak",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Classified|stattrak",
      "item_count": 5,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.14846,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-1f95db2031e4",
      "realistic_value": 70.9495,
      "optimistic_value": 69,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Head Shot",
      "conservative_value": 62,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:44.327515Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1f95db2031e4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.14846,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-66197377b028",
      "realistic_value": 286.65,
      "optimistic_value": 280,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Queen's Gambit",
      "conservative_value": 225.69,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Queen's Gambit (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:45.217119Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-66197377b028.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.14846,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-ec359b168d17",
      "realistic_value": 201.6965,
      "optimistic_value": 189.38,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Fully Tuned",
      "conservative_value": 167.58,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:53.158991Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec359b168d17.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.25,
      "output_float": 0.11876800000000001,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-1aba3ea9ecc5",
      "realistic_value": 126.6415,
      "optimistic_value": 125,
      "output_full_name": "M4A4 | Temukau",
      "conservative_value": 111.91,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:23:23.801392Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1aba3ea9ecc5.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_4fb4c40ef9d1abfcea6c557f",
  "input_rarity": "Classified",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 5.88,
      "skin_id": "skin-f04de3b20f62",
      "listing_id": "509613036859174251",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Wild Child",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f04de3b20f62.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:42.284360Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 9.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-f04de3b20f62",
      "listing_id": "529879340432936532",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Wild Child",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f04de3b20f62.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:33.619941Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 9.54,
      "skin_id": "skin-c36fdc469906",
      "listing_id": "508487242222681562",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Wicked Sick",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c36fdc469906.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:34.571872Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 11.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-c36fdc469906",
      "listing_id": "610942109780768635",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Wicked Sick",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c36fdc469906.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:34.571872Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 11.78,
      "skin_id": "skin-c36fdc469906",
      "listing_id": "523123091065567750",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Wicked Sick (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P2000 | Wicked Sick",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c36fdc469906.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:20:34.571872Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 16,
      "skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "listing_id": "500605837398995339",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:41.445099Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 18.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "listing_id": "508486392194532230",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:41.445099Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 20.55,
      "skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "listing_id": "514116741798413130",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:16.972431Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 20.58,
      "skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "listing_id": "512990841909108023",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:16.972431Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 21.89,
      "skin_id": "skin-612576d81a84",
      "listing_id": "498354142899887539",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
      "market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "P90 | Deathgaze",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-612576d81a84.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:04:16.972431Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Covert",
  "stattrak_mode": true,
  "composition_key": "Classified|Covert|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-32:5+collection-set-community-37:5"
}
Related

Related contracts

Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5
Classified → Covert Factory New ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
25.0% $843.46
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
25.0% $484.90
Temukau
M4A4 | Temukau
25.0% $288.76
Head Shot
AK-47 | Head Shot
25.0% $191.11
$843.46
+136.2%
$452.06
+26.6%
50.0%+69.9%$357.09—
The Revolution Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5
Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
25.0% $141.08
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
25.0% $105.54
Temukau
M4A4 | Temukau
25.0% $52.74
Head Shot
AK-47 | Head Shot
25.0% $46.53
$141.08
+94.9%
$86.47
+19.5%
50.0%+53.9%$72.39—
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Classified → Covert Factory New ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
35.0% $843.46
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
35.0% $484.90
Temukau
M4A4 | Temukau
15.0% $288.76
Head Shot
AK-47 | Head Shot
15.0% $191.11
$843.46
+104.0%
$536.91
+29.8%
70.0%+59.7%$413.55—
The Revolution Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6
Classified → Covert Factory New ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
30.0% $843.46
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
30.0% $484.90
Temukau
M4A4 | Temukau
20.0% $288.76
Head Shot
AK-47 | Head Shot
20.0% $191.11
$843.46
+121.1%
$494.48
+29.6%
60.0%+66.0%$381.53—
The Revolution Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9
Classified → Covert Factory New ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
45.0% $843.46
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
45.0% $484.90
Temukau
M4A4 | Temukau
5.0% $288.76
Head Shot
AK-47 | Head Shot
5.0% $191.11
$843.46
+72.1%
$621.76
+26.8%
45.0%+43.5%$490.16—
The Revolution Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4
Classified → Covert Factory New ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
20.0% $843.46
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
20.0% $484.90
Temukau
M4A4 | Temukau
30.0% $288.76
Head Shot
AK-47 | Head Shot
30.0% $191.11
$843.46
+153.8%
$409.63
+23.3%
40.0%+72.1%$332.34—
The Revolution Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3
Classified → Covert Factory New ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
15.0% $843.46
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
15.0% $484.90
Temukau
M4A4 | Temukau
35.0% $288.76
Head Shot
AK-47 | Head Shot
35.0% $191.11
$843.46
+168.0%
$367.21
+16.7%
30.0%+70.4%$314.73—
The Revolution Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2
Classified → Covert Factory New ST
Queen's Gambit
AWP | Queen's Gambit
10.0% $843.46
Fully Tuned
Glock-18 | Fully Tuned
10.0% $484.90
Temukau
M4A4 | Temukau
40.0% $288.76
Head Shot
AK-47 | Head Shot
40.0% $191.11
$843.46
+182.2%
$324.78
+8.6%
20.0%+64.5%$298.93—
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
ContractOutputsMax WinEV (ROI)Win %VolatilityCostAge
The Revolution Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST
Electrum
M4A1-S | Electrum
14.0% $51.27
Firebreathing
Desert Eagle | Firebreathing
14.0% $31.66
Amberline
MP7 | Amberline
14.0% $18.87
Galigator
Galil AR | Galigator
14.0% $14.51
Urban Sovereign
MP9 | Urban Sovereign
14.0% $13.57
Emphorosaur-S
M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S
6.0% $11.80
$51.27
+242.5%
$20.16
+34.7%
42.0%+86.8%$14.97—
FS

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