The Revolution Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Fragments
1x $0.89
Blush Pour
4x $0.95
Shredded
3x $1.33
Rose Hex
1x $1.80
Red Tide
1x $4.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
30.0% $33.42
Bleeding Edge
30.0% $16.98
Glitched Paint
30.0% $16.82
Umbral Rabbit
2.0% $4.30
Neoqueen
2.0% $3.06
Banana Cannon
2.0% $1.61
Max Win
$33.42 (+76.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$20.40 (+7.4%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+50.2%
Cost
$18.99
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.99
Ask Price EV $20.40 (+7.4%)
Bid Price EV $19.63 (+3.4%)
Ask Profit $1.41 (+7.4%)
Bid Profit $0.64 (+3.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.77 (+4.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.41
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.64
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+76.0%)
Worst Case $1.43 (-92.5%)
Volatility +50.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%
Avg Win +$14.43
Avg Loss -$4.16
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.61 (-91.5%)
Std Dev $9.53
Avg Norm Float 0.0932
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 147h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$0.89 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$3.34 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Factory New
$4.32 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 26S //TOTAL COST $18.99 //ASK PRICE EV $20.40 //BID PRICE EV $19.63 //ASK PROFIT $1.41 (+7.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.64 (+3.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +50.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
30.0%
$33.42
+$14.43
+76.0%
$31.48
+$12.49
+65.8%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$16.98
-$2.01
-10.6%
$16.48
-$2.51
-13.2%
$0.50
2.9%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$16.82
-$2.17
-11.4%
$16.69
-$2.30
-12.1%
$0.13
0.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$4.30
-$14.69
-77.4%
$4.29
-$14.70
-77.4%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$3.06
-$15.93
-83.9%
$3.00
-$15.99
-84.2%
$0.06
1.9%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.61
-$17.38
-91.5%
$1.58
-$17.41
-91.7%
$0.03
2.1%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.56
-$17.43
-91.8%
$1.44
-$17.55
-92.4%
$0.12
7.8%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.43
-$17.56
-92.5%
$1.42
-$17.57
-92.5%
$0.01
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.0699075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.062450700000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 16.818,
"optimistic_value": 16.79,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:58:46.265536Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.055926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.0699075,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 4.3,
"optimistic_value": 4.3,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 4.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:44:10.452324Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.07456800000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 1.562,
"optimistic_value": 1.52,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:55:17.060971Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.2640618,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 1.4335,
"optimistic_value": 1.43,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 1.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:45.878467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.055926,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.0595,
"optimistic_value": 3,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:27:09.942548Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.09321,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 1.6135000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.61,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T10:05:40.697941Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4f015ee0f3917e3ee39e23c8",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.89,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "492724590627111813",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:55.389091Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "519746188258766852",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:31.197301Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "510738989040706534",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:31.197301Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "649223316125024632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:49:26.511348Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:31.197301Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:31.197301Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488726542974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:15.980885Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "490472790737776695",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:36.668543Z"
},
{
"price": 3.34,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "529879121829916716",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:36.668543Z"
},
{
"price": 4.32,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "596305411423502869",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:40.255783Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:1+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.67 Sakkaku 2.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 2.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 2.0% $1.00 | $15.94 +136.9% | $8.74 +29.9% | 60.0% | +70.5% | $6.73 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Mulberry 30.0% $5.01 Glitched Paint 30.0% $2.90 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $2.03 Emphorosaur-S 2.0% $1.01 Umbral Rabbit 2.0% $0.74 Banana Cannon 2.0% $0.65 | $5.01 +64.1% | $3.05 +0.1% | 30.0% | +43.6% | $3.05 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.64 Sakkaku 4.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 4.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 4.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +169.7% | $7.86 +33.0% | 53.3% | +83.2% | $5.91 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.64 Sakkaku 16.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 16.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +611.7% | $2.73 +21.9% | 20.0% | +170.5% | $2.24 | — |