The Revolution Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Fragments
1x $0.89
Red Tide
2x $1.31
Blush Pour
5x $1.42
Rose Hex
1x $1.80
Shredded
1x $2.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
30.0% $33.42
Bleeding Edge
30.0% $16.98
Glitched Paint
30.0% $16.82
Banana Cannon
2.0% $9.06
Emphorosaur-S
2.0% $5.78
Umbral Rabbit
2.0% $4.30
Max Win
$33.42 (+27.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$20.64 (-21.0%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+34.9%
Cost
$26.13
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $26.13
Ask Price EV $20.64 (-21.0%)
Bid Price EV $19.86 (-24.0%)
Ask Profit $-5.49 (-21.0%)
Bid Profit $-6.27 (-24.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.77 (+3.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$5.49
Bid Slippage Buffer -$6.27
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+27.9%)
Worst Case $1.43 (-94.5%)
Volatility +34.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$7.29
Avg Loss -$10.97
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.30 (-83.5%)
Std Dev $9.13
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 147h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Fragments
—
Factory New
$0.89 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Minimal Wear
$1.31 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.42 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$4.95 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$5.08 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Red Tide
—
Factory New
$5.30 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 44M 14S //TOTAL COST $26.13 //ASK PRICE EV $20.64 //BID PRICE EV $19.86 //ASK PROFIT $-5.49 (-21.0%) //BID PROFIT $-6.27 (-24.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +34.9% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
30.0%
$33.42
+$7.29
+27.9%
$31.48
+$5.35
+20.5%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$16.98
-$9.15
-35.0%
$16.48
-$9.65
-36.9%
$0.50
2.9%
—
LOSS
30.0%
$16.82
-$9.31
-35.6%
$16.69
-$9.44
-36.1%
$0.13
0.8%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$9.06
-$17.07
-65.3%
$9.02
-$17.11
-65.5%
$0.04
0.4%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$5.78
-$20.35
-77.9%
$5.70
-$20.43
-78.2%
$0.08
1.3%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$4.30
-$21.83
-83.5%
$4.29
-$21.84
-83.6%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$3.06
-$23.07
-88.3%
$3.00
-$23.13
-88.5%
$0.06
1.9%
—
NUKE
2.0%
$1.43
-$24.70
-94.5%
$1.42
-$24.71
-94.6%
$0.01
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-32|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.05241749999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.0468263,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 16.818,
"optimistic_value": 16.79,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:58:46.265536Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.3,
"output_float": 0.04193399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.05241749999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-99526dbb85e6",
"realistic_value": 4.3,
"optimistic_value": 4.3,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit",
"conservative_value": 4.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Umbral Rabbit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:44:10.452324Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-99526dbb85e6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.055911999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e4cd5a266934",
"realistic_value": 5.778,
"optimistic_value": 5.75,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S",
"conservative_value": 5.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:51:46.325692Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e4cd5a266934.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.2505362,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7815c7fae965",
"realistic_value": 1.4335,
"optimistic_value": 1.43,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku",
"conservative_value": 1.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:04:45.878467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7815c7fae965.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.04193399999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2e0afbc14204",
"realistic_value": 3.0595,
"optimistic_value": 3,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Neoqueen",
"conservative_value": 3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Neoqueen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:27:09.942548Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2e0afbc14204.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1184959b60b",
"realistic_value": 9.06,
"optimistic_value": 9.06,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon",
"conservative_value": 9.02,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolution Collection",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:03:43.702979Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1184959b60b.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4f015ee0f3917e3ee39e23c8",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.89,
"skin_id": "skin-05d5c801f287",
"listing_id": "492724590627111813",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-32",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Fragments",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-05d5c801f287.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:06:55.389091Z"
},
{
"price": 1.31,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "490472738292703527",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:46.139641Z"
},
{
"price": 1.42,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "649222707046356376",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:31.197301Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524064946924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:31.197301Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:31.197301Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488726542974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:15.980885Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "490472790737776695",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:36.668543Z"
},
{
"price": 4.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "521997822479782266",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:00.808649Z"
},
{
"price": 5.08,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524062682488",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:59:00.808649Z"
},
{
"price": 5.3,
"skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"listing_id": "518619491426899480",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:40.255783Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-32:1+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.67 Sakkaku 2.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 2.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 2.0% $1.00 | $15.94 +136.9% | $8.74 +29.9% | 60.0% | +70.5% | $6.73 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 30.0% $33.42 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $16.98 Glitched Paint 30.0% $16.82 Umbral Rabbit 2.0% $4.30 Neoqueen 2.0% $3.06 Banana Cannon 2.0% $1.61 | $33.42 +76.0% | $20.40 +7.4% | 30.0% | +46.0% | $18.99 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Mulberry 30.0% $5.01 Glitched Paint 30.0% $2.90 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $2.03 Emphorosaur-S 2.0% $1.01 Umbral Rabbit 2.0% $0.74 Banana Cannon 2.0% $0.65 | $5.01 +64.1% | $3.05 +0.1% | 30.0% | +43.6% | $3.05 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolution Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.64 Sakkaku 4.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 4.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 4.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +169.7% | $7.86 +33.0% | 53.3% | +83.2% | $5.91 | — |
The Revolution Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.14 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.64 Sakkaku 16.0% $1.43 Umbral Rabbit 16.0% $1.29 Neoqueen 16.0% $0.97 | $15.94 +611.7% | $2.73 +21.9% | 20.0% | +170.5% | $2.24 | — |