The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Ensnared
1x $2.30
Necro Jr.
1x $2.49
Spirit Board
1x $2.72
Metallic Squeezer
3x $1.03
Wurst Hölle
3x $1.17
Teal Graf
1x $2.15
↓
Possible Outputs
Eye of Zapems
23.3% $27.45
Sweet Little Angels
23.3% $25.66
Monster Melt
23.3% $20.38
Dream Glade
6.0% $8.63
Ticket to Hell
6.0% $4.91
Night Terror
6.0% $4.00
Max Win
$27.45 (+32.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$18.56 (-10.4%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+45.8%
Cost
$20.70
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.70
Ask Price EV $18.56 (-10.4%)
Bid Price EV $18.21 (-12.0%)
Ask Profit $-2.14 (-10.4%)
Bid Profit $-2.49 (-12.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.34 (+1.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.14
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.49
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $27.45 (+32.6%)
Worst Case $2.68 (-87.1%)
Volatility +45.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$5.86
Avg Loss -$9.15
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.68 (-87.1%)
Std Dev $9.49
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 72h 2m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$2.49 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$2.72 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Minimal Wear
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$1.49 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Teal Graf
—
Factory New
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.33 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wurst Hölle
—
Minimal Wear
$2.34 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer
—
Factory New
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 43M 17S //TOTAL COST $20.70 //ASK PRICE EV $18.56 //BID PRICE EV $18.21 //ASK PROFIT $-2.14 (-10.4%) //BID PROFIT $-2.49 (-12.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $27.45 //VOLATILITY +45.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
23.3%
$27.45
+$6.75
+32.6%
$26.60
+$5.90
+28.5%
$0.85
3.1%
—
Restricted
Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels Factory New | ƒ 0.0571868
The Overpass 2024 Collection
WIN
23.3%
$25.66
+$4.96
+24.0%
$25.62
+$4.92
+23.8%
$0.04
0.2%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$20.38
-$0.32
-1.5%
$19.85
-$0.85
-4.1%
$0.53
2.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$8.63
-$12.07
-58.3%
$8.54
-$12.16
-58.7%
$0.09
1.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.91
-$15.79
-76.3%
$4.89
-$15.81
-76.4%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$4.00
-$16.70
-80.7%
$3.98
-$16.72
-80.8%
$0.02
0.5%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.22
-$17.48
-84.4%
$3.19
-$17.51
-84.6%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.68
-$18.02
-87.1%
$2.67
-$18.03
-87.1%
$0.01
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.059279,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e56be318449",
"realistic_value": 27.4545,
"optimistic_value": 27.43,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems",
"conservative_value": 26.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Eye of Zapems (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:57.146340Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e56be318449.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.057186799999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6e1eac6f1a57",
"realistic_value": 25.661,
"optimistic_value": 25.64,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels",
"conservative_value": 25.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Sweet Little Angels (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T08:04:07.969401Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6e1eac6f1a57.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.052305,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0ac8d26ea3c5",
"realistic_value": 20.381,
"optimistic_value": 20.36,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt",
"conservative_value": 19.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass 2024 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Monster Melt (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:27.221596Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0ac8d26ea3c5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 8.628,
"optimistic_value": 8.6,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 8.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:17.967073Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.04881799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:44:35.845224Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0467258,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:20:04.477722Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0530024,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 4.907,
"optimistic_value": 4.9,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:44:29.757519Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.03487,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:32:01.164108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4ec63f341bf4addf35566b84",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "526501535292873089",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:01:27.673959Z"
},
{
"price": 2.49,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "497228137695537017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:56:32.947816Z"
},
{
"price": 2.72,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "497228137696833341",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:53:57.638204Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "596305411430770513",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:54:45.369021Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "523123888072288378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:57:26.567550Z"
},
{
"price": 1.49,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "625579418033580202",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:57:26.567550Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-45d74b83b2a0",
"listing_id": "506235389470342956",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Teal Graf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45d74b83b2a0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:57:06.234224Z"
},
{
"price": 2.33,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "492724590626822841",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:44:38.257729Z"
},
{
"price": 2.34,
"skin_id": "skin-791e6727b6a9",
"listing_id": "494975741580158130",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Wurst Hölle",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-791e6727b6a9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:57:26.567550Z"
},
{
"price": 2.68,
"skin_id": "skin-0df7ea666c3d",
"listing_id": "523123888072619974",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass-2024",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Metallic Squeezer",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0df7ea666c3d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:44:38.257729Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:3+collection-set-overpass-2024:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.29 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.69 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.57 Night Terror 6.0% $1.56 Space Cat 6.0% $1.17 | $10.49 +83.4% | $7.25 +26.8% | 70.0% | +58.5% | $5.72 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Eye of Zapems 23.3% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 23.3% $10.29 Monster Melt 23.3% $8.69 Dream Glade 6.0% $1.64 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $1.57 Night Terror 6.0% $1.56 | $10.49 +53.1% | $7.29 +6.5% | 70.0% | +48.0% | $6.85 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 16.7% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 16.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 16.7% $8.69 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $1.57 Night Terror 10.0% $1.56 Space Cat 10.0% $1.17 | $10.49 +145.7% | $5.54 +29.7% | 50.0% | +89.4% | $4.27 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 20.0% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 20.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 20.0% $8.69 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $1.57 Night Terror 8.0% $1.56 Space Cat 8.0% $1.17 | $10.49 +111.9% | $6.39 +29.2% | 60.0% | +73.8% | $4.95 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 13.3% $10.47 Sweet Little Angels 13.3% $10.29 Monster Melt 13.3% $8.65 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $1.57 Night Terror 12.0% $1.56 Space Cat 12.0% $1.17 | $10.47 +184.5% | $4.67 +26.9% | 40.0% | +103.8% | $3.68 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 10.0% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 10.0% $10.29 Monster Melt 10.0% $8.69 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $1.57 Night Terror 14.0% $1.56 Space Cat 14.0% $1.17 | $10.49 +245.1% | $3.82 +25.7% | 30.0% | +120.4% | $3.04 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Eye of Zapems 6.7% $10.49 Sweet Little Angels 6.7% $10.29 Monster Melt 6.7% $8.69 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.63 Night Terror 16.0% $1.56 Space Cat 16.0% $1.17 | $10.49 +321.3% | $2.98 +19.5% | 20.0% | +131.0% | $2.49 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Crakow!  15.0% $103.76 Dragon Snore  15.0% $75.91 Melondrama  23.3% $11.95 Rapid Eye Movement  23.3% $11.88 Abyssal Apparition  23.3% $11.54 | $103.76 +253.6% | $35.20 +20.0% | 30.0% | +124.6% | $29.34 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Overpass 2024 Collection ×5 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | B the Monster  50.0% $1,312.69 Starlight Protector  25.0% $179.19 Nightwish  25.0% $117.09 | $1,312.69 +118.3% | $730.41 +21.5% | 50.0% | +96.9% | $601.28 | — |