The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Rose Nacre
3x $0.05
Sour Grapes
1x $0.10
Robin's Egg
1x $0.11
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.12
Copper Fiber
1x $0.08
Steel Sentinel
3x $0.11
↓
Possible Outputs
Run Run Run
10.0% $2.24
Yeti Camo
12.0% $1.76
Cobalt Paisley
12.0% $1.18
Royal Baroque
12.0% $1.10
Reef Grief
12.0% $1.07
Mint Fan
12.0% $1.00
Max Win
$2.24 (+113.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.21 (+14.9%)
Win %
58.0%
Volatility
+42.4%
Cost
$1.05
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.05
Ask Price EV $1.21 (+14.9%)
Bid Price EV $1.13 (+7.9%)
Ask Profit $0.16 (+14.9%)
Bid Profit $0.08 (+7.9%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+7.0%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.16
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.08
Risk
Win Probability 58.0%
Loss Probability 42.0%
Best Case $2.24 (+113.7%)
Worst Case $0.71 (-32.4%)
Volatility +42.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 10.0%
Avg Win +$0.39
Avg Loss -$0.17
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.71 (-32.4%)
Std Dev $0.45
Avg Norm Float 0.1990
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 22m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Premium Signal · Execution Sensitive
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Field-Tested
$0.05 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 59S //TOTAL COST $1.05 //ASK PRICE EV $1.21 //BID PRICE EV $1.13 //ASK PROFIT $0.16 (+14.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.08 (+7.9%) //WIN PROBABILITY 58.0% //BEST CASE $2.24 //VOLATILITY +42.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$2.24
+$1.19
+113.7%
$2.22
+$1.17
+111.4%
$0.02
1.0%
—
BIG WIN
12.0%
$1.76
+$0.71
+67.4%
$1.62
+$0.57
+54.3%
$0.14
7.8%
—
PAPER WIN
12.0%
$1.18
+$0.13
+12.7%
$1.04
-$0.01
-1.0%
$0.14
12.1%
—
PAPER WIN
12.0%
$1.10
+$0.05
+4.7%
$1.01
-$0.04
-3.8%
$0.09
8.1%
—
PAPER WIN
12.0%
$1.07
+$0.02
+2.0%
$0.97
-$0.08
-7.6%
$0.10
9.4%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$1.00
-$0.05
-4.5%
$0.94
-$0.11
-10.5%
$0.06
6.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.94
-$0.11
-10.5%
$0.89
-$0.16
-15.2%
$0.05
5.3%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.83
-$0.22
-21.0%
$0.82
-$0.23
-21.9%
$0.01
1.2%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$0.71
-$0.34
-32.4%
$0.70
-$0.35
-33.3%
$0.01
1.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.1194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 1.0025,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 0.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:19.425481Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.1393,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.758,
"optimistic_value": 1.73,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:02.497038Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.12935000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.1835,
"optimistic_value": 1.18,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:53.699923Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.1194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 1.099,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:07.248363Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.1194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 1.0710000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 0.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:41.970346Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.17114000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:19.268858Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.199,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 0.94,
"optimistic_value": 0.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:18.919983Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.199,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 0.83,
"optimistic_value": 0.83,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:35:02.874192Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.148568425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 2.2435,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 2.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:51.158892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4dfe2a4d8207225c069176b0",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.05,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "494976443342314770",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:55.068041Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "512990841908395799",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:22:55.068041Z"
},
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "497228243054872145",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:40:35.924149Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "500605942755913247",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:56.410935Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "510739041954293926",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:44.704532Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "498354142900313815",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:53.550103Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "524249840858755191",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:38:14.555261Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "503983642532513575",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:57.943587Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "503983642532511991",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:57.943587Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "503983642532516563",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:57.943587Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 10.0% $28.83 2A2F 10.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 10.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 10.0% $11.23 Yeti Camo 12.0% $4.46 Mint Fan 12.0% $3.13 | $28.83 +262.6% | $9.15 +15.1% | 40.0% | +96.3% | $7.95 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Green Line 10.0% $3.08 Late Night Transit 10.0% $2.82 2A2F 10.0% $2.67 Run Run Run 10.0% $2.24 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.76 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.18 | $3.08 +86.7% | $1.82 +10.0% | 52.0% | +38.4% | $1.65 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 17.5% $28.83 2A2F 17.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 17.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 17.5% $11.23 Yeti Camo 6.0% $4.46 Mint Fan 6.0% $3.12 | $28.83 +171.4% | $13.77 +29.7% | 70.0% | +71.3% | $10.62 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 15.0% $28.83 2A2F 15.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 15.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 15.0% $11.23 Yeti Camo 8.0% $4.46 Mint Fan 8.0% $3.12 | $28.83 +202.8% | $12.23 +28.5% | 60.0% | +81.6% | $9.52 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 12.5% $28.83 2A2F 12.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 12.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 12.5% $11.23 Yeti Camo 10.0% $4.46 Mint Fan 10.0% $3.12 | $28.83 +229.5% | $10.69 +22.2% | 50.0% | +89.3% | $8.75 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout  10.0% $64.86 Derailment  10.0% $41.46 Midnight Laminate  35.0% $38.92 Charged Up  10.0% $22.60 Royal Guard  35.0% $13.48 | $64.86 +165.8% | $31.23 +28.0% | 55.0% | +66.3% | $24.40 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  40.0% $294.44 Stratosphere  20.0% $131.31 | $597.10 +80.3% | $382.88 +15.6% | 40.0% | +55.8% | $331.11 | — |