The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Gum Wall Camo
2x $0.11
Robin's Egg
1x $0.15
Naval Shred Camo
1x $0.17
Electric Blue
2x $0.18
Steel Sentinel
2x $0.11
Copper Fiber
2x $0.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Green Line
10.0% $3.09
Late Night Transit
10.0% $2.82
2A2F
10.0% $2.67
Run Run Run
10.0% $2.24
Yeti Camo
12.0% $1.83
Cobalt Paisley
12.0% $1.14
Max Win
$3.09 (+98.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.82 (+16.9%)
Win %
52.0%
Volatility
+50.2%
Cost
$1.56
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.56
Ask Price EV $1.82 (+16.9%)
Bid Price EV $1.74 (+11.6%)
Ask Profit $0.26 (+16.9%)
Bid Profit $0.18 (+11.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.08 (+5.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.26
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.18
Risk
Win Probability 52.0%
Loss Probability 48.0%
Best Case $3.09 (+98.1%)
Worst Case $1.04 (-33.3%)
Volatility +50.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$0.95
Avg Loss -$0.48
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.04 (-33.3%)
Std Dev $0.78
Avg Norm Float 0.1499
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 6h 30m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.11 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Steel Sentinel
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 49S //TOTAL COST $1.56 //ASK PRICE EV $1.82 //BID PRICE EV $1.74 //ASK PROFIT $0.26 (+16.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.18 (+11.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.0% //BEST CASE $3.09 //VOLATILITY +50.2% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$3.09
+$1.53
+98.1%
$3.05
+$1.49
+95.5%
$0.04
1.3%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.82
+$1.26
+81.0%
$2.81
+$1.25
+80.1%
$0.01
0.5%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$2.67
+$1.11
+71.4%
$2.64
+$1.08
+69.2%
$0.03
1.3%
—
WIN
10.0%
$2.24
+$0.68
+43.8%
$2.22
+$0.66
+42.3%
$0.02
1.0%
—
WIN
12.0%
$1.83
+$0.27
+17.6%
$1.62
+$0.06
+3.8%
$0.21
11.7%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$1.14
-$0.42
-26.9%
$1.04
-$0.52
-33.3%
$0.10
8.9%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$1.08
-$0.48
-30.7%
$0.94
-$0.62
-39.7%
$0.14
13.0%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$1.07
-$0.49
-31.3%
$0.97
-$0.59
-37.8%
$0.10
9.4%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$1.04
-$0.52
-33.3%
$1.01
-$0.55
-35.3%
$0.03
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.08994599999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 1.0805,
"optimistic_value": 1.07,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 0.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:59.521605Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.10493699999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.8345,
"optimistic_value": 1.81,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:45.534685Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0974415,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.141,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:53.037696Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.08994599999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 1.04,
"optimistic_value": 1.04,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:48.649616Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.08994599999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 1.0710000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 0.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:29.608493Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1289226,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 2.6735,
"optimistic_value": 2.67,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:12:33.850694Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 3.0905,
"optimistic_value": 3.08,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:37.971627Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 2.8235,
"optimistic_value": 2.82,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 2.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:20:46.655004Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.11191905825,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 2.2435,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 2.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:18:16.454491Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4dfe2a4d8207225c069176b0",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "527627540537836040",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:32:24.464813Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "505109542379577332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:32:24.464813Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "525375635593436155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:32:28.994799Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "491597893797568694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:32:24.074773Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "527627540537836256",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:11:07.485043Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:11:07.485043Z"
},
{
"price": 0.11,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "503983642532519875",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:14.637481Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-6305d7d593bd",
"listing_id": "503983642532516563",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AUG | Steel Sentinel",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6305d7d593bd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:14.637481Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "507361342333706281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:49.788253Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "490472790738192387",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:49.788253Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Run Run Run 10.0% $2.24 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.83 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.14 Mint Fan 12.0% $1.08 Reef Grief 12.0% $1.07 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.04 | $2.24 +109.7% | $1.21 +13.4% | 58.0% | +37.5% | $1.07 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 17.5% $28.83 2A2F 17.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 17.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 17.5% $11.23 Yeti Camo 6.0% $4.46 Mint Fan 6.0% $3.20 | $28.83 +173.5% | $13.78 +30.7% | 70.0% | +71.8% | $10.54 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 7.5% $28.83 2A2F 7.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 7.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 7.5% $11.23 Yeti Camo 14.0% $4.46 Mint Fan 14.0% $3.20 | $28.83 +365.7% | $7.62 +23.1% | 30.0% | +116.5% | $6.19 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout  20.0% $64.86 Derailment  20.0% $42.56 Midnight Laminate  20.0% $38.92 Charged Up  20.0% $22.67 Royal Guard  20.0% $13.48 | $64.86 +112.9% | $36.50 +19.8% | 60.0% | +58.1% | $30.47 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  35.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  35.0% $294.44 Stratosphere  30.0% $131.31 | $597.10 +95.5% | $351.43 +15.1% | 35.0% | +62.8% | $305.42 | — |