The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Turquoise Pour
2x $0.38
Rose Nacre
1x $0.57
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.92
Ocean Topo
2x $1.05
Straight Dimes
1x $0.63
Rain Station
1x $0.83
↓
Possible Outputs
Green Line
10.0% $28.83
2A2F
10.0% $18.79
Late Night Transit
10.0% $14.75
Run Run Run
10.0% $11.23
Yeti Camo
12.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
12.0% $3.12
Max Win
$28.83 (+256.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.15 (+13.2%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+107.1%
Cost
$8.08
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.08
Ask Price EV $9.15 (+13.2%)
Bid Price EV $8.59 (+6.4%)
Ask Profit $1.07 (+13.2%)
Bid Profit $0.51 (+6.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.55 (+6.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.07
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.51
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $28.83 (+256.8%)
Worst Case $2.01 (-75.1%)
Volatility +107.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$10.32
Avg Loss -$5.10
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.01 (-75.1%)
Std Dev $8.65
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 152h 32m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.57 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.45 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Straight Dimes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Rain Station
—
Factory New
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber
—
Factory New
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 57S //TOTAL COST $8.08 //ASK PRICE EV $9.15 //BID PRICE EV $8.59 //ASK PROFIT $1.07 (+13.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.51 (+6.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $28.83 //VOLATILITY +107.1% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$28.83
+$20.75
+256.8%
$26.37
+$18.29
+226.4%
$2.46
8.5%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$18.79
+$10.71
+132.6%
$18.05
+$9.97
+123.4%
$0.74
3.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$14.75
+$6.67
+82.5%
$14.50
+$6.42
+79.5%
$0.25
1.7%
—
WIN
10.0%
$11.23
+$3.15
+39.0%
$9.36
+$1.28
+15.8%
$1.87
16.6%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$4.46
-$3.62
-44.8%
$4.43
-$3.65
-45.2%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$3.12
-$4.96
-61.4%
$3.05
-$5.03
-62.3%
$0.07
2.3%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.65
-$5.43
-67.2%
$2.62
-$5.46
-67.6%
$0.03
1.1%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.64
-$5.44
-67.3%
$2.62
-$5.46
-67.6%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.01
-$6.07
-75.1%
$1.99
-$6.09
-75.4%
$0.02
1.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.1205,
"optimistic_value": 3.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:41.039096Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.048992999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0454935,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:18.871020Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:34.574463Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.014,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:19.354031Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0601914,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"realistic_value": 18.791999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 18.68,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"conservative_value": 18.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T07:28:16.838420Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"realistic_value": 28.8275,
"optimistic_value": 28.53,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"conservative_value": 26.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:00:45.324506Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"realistic_value": 14.75,
"optimistic_value": 14.75,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"conservative_value": 14.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T13:50:52.575011Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.052252784249999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"realistic_value": 11.228,
"optimistic_value": 11.13,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"conservative_value": 9.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:20.847625Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4dfe2a4d8207225c069176b0",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:32:41.398460Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:32:41.398460Z"
},
{
"price": 0.57,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "529879340432181216",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:32:16.450362Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:30.942331Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "622201718380639200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:17:05.641215Z"
},
{
"price": 1.45,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "528753221919408945",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:17:05.641215Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-0c162dc3dadb",
"listing_id": "527627487624991292",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Straight Dimes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Straight Dimes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0c162dc3dadb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:29:11.175240Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-1a861a1ce86e",
"listing_id": "492724643507883441",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rain Station (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Rain Station",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a861a1ce86e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:22:56.433173Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "518620341243096976",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Factory New)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:26:02.896613Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-994bf96d44d4",
"listing_id": "493850543432011432",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber (Factory New)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Copper Fiber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-994bf96d44d4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:26:02.896613Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6+collection-set-train-2025:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Run Run Run 10.0% $2.46 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.76 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.17 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.06 Reef Grief 12.0% $1.06 Mint Fan 12.0% $1.05 | $2.46 +126.0% | $1.22 +12.3% | 34.0% | +40.9% | $1.09 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Green Line 10.0% $3.09 Late Night Transit 10.0% $2.82 2A2F 10.0% $2.66 Run Run Run 10.0% $2.46 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.76 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.17 | $3.09 +82.9% | $1.84 +8.6% | 52.0% | +38.2% | $1.69 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 15.0% $28.83 2A2F 15.0% $18.79 Late Night Transit 15.0% $14.75 Run Run Run 15.0% $11.23 Yeti Camo 8.0% $4.46 Mint Fan 8.0% $3.12 | $28.83 +206.3% | $12.23 +30.0% | 60.0% | +82.6% | $9.41 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 17.5% $28.83 2A2F 17.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 17.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 17.5% $11.23 Yeti Camo 6.0% $4.46 Mint Fan 6.0% $3.12 | $28.83 +167.9% | $13.77 +28.0% | 70.0% | +70.4% | $10.76 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Green Line 12.5% $28.83 2A2F 12.5% $18.79 Late Night Transit 12.5% $14.75 Run Run Run 12.5% $11.23 Yeti Camo 10.0% $4.46 Mint Fan 10.0% $3.12 | $28.83 +234.0% | $10.69 +23.8% | 50.0% | +90.5% | $8.63 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Run Run Run 7.5% $2.46 Yeti Camo 14.0% $1.73 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $1.17 Royal Baroque 14.0% $1.06 Mint Fan 14.0% $1.00 Reef Grief 14.0% $1.00 | $2.46 +134.6% | $1.20 +14.6% | 49.5% | +39.5% | $1.05 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×9+The Train 2025 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout  3.3% $64.86 Derailment  3.3% $41.46 Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Charged Up  3.3% $22.39 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.38 | $64.86 +194.7% | $27.83 +26.4% | 55.0% | +64.6% | $22.01 | — |
The Ascent Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  40.0% $294.44 Stratosphere  20.0% $131.31 | $597.10 +80.1% | $382.88 +15.5% | 40.0% | +55.7% | $331.55 | — |