The Safehouse Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Forest Leaves
2x $0.10
Condemned
1x $0.23
Tiger Tear
1x $0.15
Acid Dart
2x $0.16
Leafhopper
2x $0.16
Garter-9
1x $0.20
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
14.0% $4.61
Tropical Breeze
14.0% $3.67
Teardown
10.0% $2.81
Copperflage
14.0% $1.66
Gold Leaf
14.0% $1.57
Silver Quartz
10.0% $1.38
Max Win
$4.61 (+160.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.24 (+26.3%)
Win %
38.0%
Volatility
+75.8%
Cost
$1.77
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.77
Ask Price EV $2.24 (+26.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.00 (+13.0%)
Ask Profit $0.47 (+26.3%)
Bid Profit $0.23 (+13.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.23 (+13.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.47
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.23
Risk
Win Probability 38.0%
Loss Probability 62.0%
Best Case $4.61 (+160.5%)
Worst Case $0.48 (-72.9%)
Volatility +75.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 14.0%
Avg Win +$2.02
Avg Loss -$0.49
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.48 (-72.9%)
Std Dev $1.34
Avg Norm Float 0.1163
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 115h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Condemned
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 33S //TOTAL COST $1.77 //ASK PRICE EV $2.24 //BID PRICE EV $2.00 //ASK PROFIT $0.47 (+26.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.23 (+13.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 38.0% //BEST CASE $4.61 //VOLATILITY +75.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
14.0%
$4.61
+$2.84
+160.5%
$3.81
+$2.04
+115.3%
$0.80
17.4%
—
BIG WIN
14.0%
$3.67
+$1.90
+107.4%
$3.64
+$1.87
+105.6%
$0.03
0.8%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$2.81
+$1.04
+58.8%
$2.78
+$1.01
+57.1%
$0.03
1.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$1.66
-$0.11
-6.0%
$1.27
-$0.50
-28.2%
$0.39
23.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$1.57
-$0.20
-11.2%
$1.28
-$0.49
-27.7%
$0.29
18.6%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.38
-$0.39
-21.8%
$1.33
-$0.44
-24.9%
$0.05
3.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.36
-$0.41
-23.1%
$1.31
-$0.46
-26.0%
$0.05
3.7%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$0.48
-$1.29
-72.9%
$0.42
-$1.35
-76.3%
$0.06
12.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-safehouse|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0872475,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 4.61,
"optimistic_value": 4.61,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 3.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:23.769730Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0791044,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 0.48,
"optimistic_value": 0.48,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 0.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:20:59.493916Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.069798,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:39.344613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06398150000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.069798,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.6635,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:25.012161Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.069798,
"output_skin_id": "skin-466d0513f5e8",
"realistic_value": 2.8104999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.8,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 2.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:51:58.978127Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-466d0513f5e8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.046532000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45614ab4f605",
"realistic_value": 1.3835,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz",
"conservative_value": 1.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:14.604765Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45614ab4f605.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0034898999999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d85f69ac3c8",
"realistic_value": 1.361,
"optimistic_value": 1.34,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade",
"conservative_value": 1.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:39.688862Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d85f69ac3c8.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4d26a09fc98b634990b697d1",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "520872088105979016",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:40:13.540647Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "606438509290341941",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:40:13.540647Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-64d604ccd5cf",
"listing_id": "509613089304149787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Condemned (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Condemned",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-64d604ccd5cf.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:26.039792Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "512990623225420919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:51.633224Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "512990789044843799",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:11.929383Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "503983423971210091",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:01.301148Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "515242423037531833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:11.929383Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "523123091054746906",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:01.301148Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "492724590626520081",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:27.747754Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "508487136897756926",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:42:04.080966Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-safehouse:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Acid Fade 10.0% $1.36 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.48 Teardown 10.0% $0.48 Gold Leaf 14.0% $0.41 | $4.61 +347.6% | $1.29 +25.4% | 38.0% | +132.0% | $1.03 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Acid Fade 6.7% $1.39 Teardown 6.7% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 16.0% $0.45 Gold Leaf 16.0% $0.41 | $4.61 +339.0% | $1.37 +30.6% | 38.7% | +136.3% | $1.05 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Acid Fade 3.3% $1.39 Teardown 3.3% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 18.0% $0.45 Gold Leaf 18.0% $0.41 | $4.61 +311.6% | $1.45 +29.7% | 39.3% | +133.3% | $1.12 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Acid Fade 13.3% $1.36 Teardown 13.3% $0.49 Poplar Thicket 12.0% $0.48 Gold Leaf 12.0% $0.41 | $4.61 +380.2% | $1.21 +26.2% | 37.3% | +133.6% | $0.96 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $3.67 Teardown 16.7% $2.81 Copperflage 10.0% $1.66 Gold Leaf 10.0% $1.57 Silver Quartz 16.7% $1.38 | $4.61 +161.9% | $2.13 +20.8% | 36.7% | +59.0% | $1.76 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $3.67 Teardown 20.0% $2.81 Gold Leaf 8.0% $1.57 Copperflage 8.0% $1.56 Silver Quartz 20.0% $1.39 | $4.61 +157.5% | $2.07 +15.5% | 36.0% | +54.9% | $1.79 | — |