The Safehouse Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Forest Leaves
2x $0.27
VariCamo
1x $0.76
Garter-9
1x $0.20
Polished Malachite
2x $0.29
Leafhopper
1x $0.36
Acid Dart
1x $0.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
14.0% $10.66
Tropical Breeze
14.0% $3.67
Teardown
10.0% $2.81
Copperflage
14.0% $1.66
Gold Leaf
14.0% $1.57
Poplar Thicket
14.0% $1.53
Max Win
$10.66 (+122.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.23 (-32.6%)
Win %
14.0%
Volatility
+64.7%
Cost
$4.79
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.79
Ask Price EV $3.23 (-32.6%)
Bid Price EV $2.99 (-37.5%)
Ask Profit $-1.56 (-32.6%)
Bid Profit $-1.80 (-37.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.23 (+4.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.56
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.80
Risk
Win Probability 14.0%
Loss Probability 86.0%
Best Case $10.66 (+122.5%)
Worst Case $1.36 (-71.6%)
Volatility +64.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 72.0%
Avg Win +$5.87
Avg Loss -$2.77
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.36 (-71.6%)
Std Dev $3.10
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 115h 57m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 37M 26S //TOTAL COST $4.79 //ASK PRICE EV $3.23 //BID PRICE EV $2.99 //ASK PROFIT $-1.56 (-32.6%) //BID PROFIT $-1.80 (-37.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 14.0% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +64.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
14.0%
$10.66
+$5.87
+122.5%
$9.81
+$5.02
+104.8%
$0.85
8.0%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$3.67
-$1.12
-23.4%
$3.64
-$1.15
-24.0%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.81
-$1.98
-41.3%
$2.78
-$2.01
-42.0%
$0.03
1.1%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.66
-$3.13
-65.3%
$1.27
-$3.52
-73.5%
$0.39
23.7%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.57
-$3.22
-67.2%
$1.28
-$3.51
-73.3%
$0.29
18.6%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.53
-$3.26
-68.0%
$1.52
-$3.27
-68.3%
$0.01
0.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.38
-$3.41
-71.1%
$1.33
-$3.46
-72.2%
$0.05
3.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.36
-$3.43
-71.6%
$1.31
-$3.48
-72.7%
$0.05
3.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-safehouse|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.05229,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0474096,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.5335,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:19.147366Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041832,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:39.344613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.038346000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041832,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.6635,
"optimistic_value": 1.66,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:25.012161Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041832,
"output_skin_id": "skin-466d0513f5e8",
"realistic_value": 2.8104999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.8,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 2.78,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:51:58.978127Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-466d0513f5e8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.027888000000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45614ab4f605",
"realistic_value": 1.3835,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz",
"conservative_value": 1.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:14.604765Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45614ab4f605.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.0020916,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d85f69ac3c8",
"realistic_value": 1.361,
"optimistic_value": 1.34,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade",
"conservative_value": 1.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:52:39.688862Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d85f69ac3c8.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4d26a09fc98b634990b697d1",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "527627487624310172",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:16.044103Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "492724590625240353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:16.044103Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "500605837397524451",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:41.218359Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "492724590626520081",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:54:27.747754Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "508487136897756926",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:42:04.080966Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "507361289452005421",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:42:04.080966Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "529879287551327796",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:16.253007Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "652601015910513612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:36.251191Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:56.437657Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "525375688036608451",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:56.437657Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-safehouse:3+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $3.67 Teardown 10.0% $2.81 Copperflage 14.0% $1.66 Gold Leaf 14.0% $1.57 Silver Quartz 10.0% $1.38 | $4.61 +160.5% | $2.24 +26.3% | 38.0% | +64.2% | $1.77 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Acid Fade 10.0% $1.36 Poplar Thicket 14.0% $0.48 Teardown 10.0% $0.48 Gold Leaf 14.0% $0.41 | $4.61 +347.6% | $1.29 +25.4% | 38.0% | +132.0% | $1.03 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Acid Fade 6.7% $1.39 Teardown 6.7% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 16.0% $0.45 Gold Leaf 16.0% $0.41 | $4.61 +339.0% | $1.37 +30.6% | 38.7% | +136.3% | $1.05 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Acid Fade 3.3% $1.39 Teardown 3.3% $0.48 Poplar Thicket 18.0% $0.45 Gold Leaf 18.0% $0.41 | $4.61 +311.6% | $1.45 +29.7% | 39.3% | +133.3% | $1.12 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Acid Fade 13.3% $1.36 Teardown 13.3% $0.49 Poplar Thicket 12.0% $0.48 Gold Leaf 12.0% $0.41 | $4.61 +380.2% | $1.21 +26.2% | 37.3% | +133.6% | $0.96 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $3.67 Teardown 16.7% $2.81 Copperflage 10.0% $1.66 Gold Leaf 10.0% $1.57 Silver Quartz 16.7% $1.38 | $4.61 +161.9% | $2.13 +20.8% | 36.7% | +59.0% | $1.76 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $3.67 Teardown 20.0% $2.81 Gold Leaf 8.0% $1.57 Copperflage 8.0% $1.56 Silver Quartz 20.0% $1.39 | $4.61 +157.5% | $2.07 +15.5% | 36.0% | +54.9% | $1.79 | — |