The Genesis Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Red Wing
3x $1.39
Focus
2x $1.51
Broken Record
2x $2.00
Blue Fissure
2x $3.61
Crimson Web
1x $4.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Heirloom
7.5% $313.93
Copper Galaxy
7.5% $57.94
Titanium Bit
7.5% $49.92
Tread Plate
7.5% $26.30
Liquidation
14.0% $7.67
Cat Fight
14.0% $2.26
Max Win
$313.93 (+1056.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$35.86 (+32.1%)
Win %
22.5%
Volatility
+299.4%
Cost
$27.15
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $27.15
Ask Price EV $35.86 (+32.1%)
Bid Price EV $30.13 (+11.0%)
Ask Profit $8.71 (+32.1%)
Bid Profit $2.98 (+11.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $5.73 (+21.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$8.71
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.98
Risk
Win Probability 22.5%
Loss Probability 77.5%
Best Case $313.93 (+1056.3%)
Worst Case $2.00 (-92.6%)
Volatility +299.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$113.45
Avg Loss -$21.70
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.00 (-92.6%)
Std Dev $81.28
Avg Norm Float 0.0874
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 149h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$1.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$2.41 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$2.61 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$2.62 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$3.61 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$4.00 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web
—
Field-Tested
$4.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 48S //TOTAL COST $27.15 //ASK PRICE EV $35.86 //BID PRICE EV $30.13 //ASK PROFIT $8.71 (+32.1%) //BID PROFIT $2.98 (+11.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 22.5% //BEST CASE $313.93 //VOLATILITY +299.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$313.93
+$286.78
+1056.3%
$251.97
+$224.82
+828.1%
$61.96
19.7%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$57.94
+$30.79
+113.4%
$55.32
+$28.17
+103.8%
$2.62
4.5%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$49.92
+$22.77
+83.9%
$43.25
+$16.10
+59.3%
$6.67
13.4%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$26.30
-$0.85
-3.1%
$23.55
-$3.60
-13.3%
$2.75
10.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$7.67
-$19.48
-71.8%
$6.71
-$20.44
-75.3%
$0.96
12.5%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.26
-$24.89
-91.7%
$2.04
-$25.11
-92.5%
$0.22
9.8%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.12
-$25.03
-92.2%
$2.03
-$25.12
-92.5%
$0.09
4.3%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.05
-$25.10
-92.4%
$2.03
-$25.12
-92.5%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$2.00
-$25.15
-92.6%
$1.99
-$25.16
-92.7%
$0.01
0.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.08744,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 2.1205,
"optimistic_value": 2.11,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:50:18.014299Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.08744,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 7.667,
"optimistic_value": 7.66,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 6.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.771865Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.08744,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 2.261,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:43.918751Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.08744,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 2.0505,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 2.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:30:38.676531Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.08744,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 2,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:28:10.308442Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.017488,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ed635da7e55",
"realistic_value": 26.304,
"optimistic_value": 26.22,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate",
"conservative_value": 23.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:47.162368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ed635da7e55.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.069952,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6730ed01353f",
"realistic_value": 313.933,
"optimistic_value": 293.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom",
"conservative_value": 251.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:44:47.265430Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6730ed01353f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.017488,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a5e6018f632",
"realistic_value": 57.9445,
"optimistic_value": 57.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy",
"conservative_value": 55.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:57:42.344378Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5e6018f632.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.017488,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ce20dbe572e3",
"realistic_value": 49.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 49.88,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit",
"conservative_value": 43.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:04.028074Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ce20dbe572e3.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4b250e83f876de75be455b5f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.39,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "507361289453364277",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:08.726124Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "492724590627113649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:52:42.609087Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "525375688037579443",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:03.322996Z"
},
{
"price": 2.41,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "521997988014612582",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:03.322996Z"
},
{
"price": 2.61,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "511864836540596349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:08.726124Z"
},
{
"price": 2.62,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "518620288314721612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:52:42.609087Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "520872088107413652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:55:08.726124Z"
},
{
"price": 3.61,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "520872088107303240",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:14.293457Z"
},
{
"price": 4,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "526501535293799549",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:14.293457Z"
},
{
"price": 4,
"skin_id": "skin-5a5917ab52b0",
"listing_id": "514116688950726474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5917ab52b0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:59:58.765541Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:7+collection-set-weapons-iii:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Liquidation 14.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 14.0% $6.50 | $313.93 +847.9% | $39.83 +20.2% | 22.5% | +231.8% | $33.12 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.21 | $313.93 +1554.0% | $24.97 +31.6% | 20.0% | +349.1% | $18.98 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 10.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 10.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 10.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 10.0% $26.30 Liquidation 12.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 12.0% $2.26 | $313.93 +773.5% | $46.74 +30.1% | 30.0% | +242.8% | $35.94 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.21 | $313.93 +595.0% | $57.62 +27.6% | 37.5% | +208.8% | $45.17 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 15.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 15.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 15.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 15.0% $26.30 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.26 | $313.93 +465.4% | $68.50 +23.4% | 30.0% | +180.3% | $55.52 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Heirloom 2.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 2.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 2.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 2.5% $26.30 Liquidation 18.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 18.0% $6.50 | $313.93 +1799.2% | $19.20 +16.1% | 28.0% | +287.8% | $16.53 | — |