The Genesis Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Caged
6x $0.14
Red Wing
1x $0.19
Red FragCam
1x $3.35
Blue Fissure
2x $3.60
↓
Possible Outputs
Copper Galaxy
7.5% $57.94
Titanium Bit
7.5% $49.92
Tread Plate
7.5% $26.30
Heirloom
7.5% $10.97
Liquidation
14.0% $4.01
Cat Fight
14.0% $1.13
Max Win
$57.94 (+385.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$12.05 (+1.0%)
Win %
22.5%
Volatility
+158.5%
Cost
$11.93
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $11.93
Ask Price EV $12.05 (+1.0%)
Bid Price EV $11.02 (-7.6%)
Ask Profit $0.12 (+1.0%)
Bid Profit $-0.91 (-7.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.02 (+8.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.12
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.91
Risk
Win Probability 22.5%
Loss Probability 77.5%
Best Case $57.94 (+385.7%)
Worst Case $1.01 (-91.5%)
Volatility +158.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$32.79
Avg Loss -$9.37
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.01 (-91.5%)
Std Dev $18.91
Avg Norm Float 0.3409
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 16m
Oldest Output Price 150h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Well-Worn
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Caged
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red FragCam
—
Battle-Scarred
$3.35 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$3.60 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$3.70 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 53M 28S //TOTAL COST $11.93 //ASK PRICE EV $12.05 //BID PRICE EV $11.02 //ASK PROFIT $0.12 (+1.0%) //BID PROFIT $-0.91 (-7.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 22.5% //BEST CASE $57.94 //VOLATILITY +158.5% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
7.5%
$57.94
+$46.01
+385.7%
$55.32
+$43.39
+363.7%
$2.62
4.5%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$49.92
+$37.99
+318.5%
$43.25
+$31.32
+262.5%
$6.67
13.4%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$26.30
+$14.37
+120.5%
$23.55
+$11.62
+97.4%
$2.75
10.5%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$10.97
-$0.96
-8.0%
$10.66
-$1.27
-10.6%
$0.31
2.9%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$4.01
-$7.92
-66.3%
$3.61
-$8.32
-69.7%
$0.40
10.1%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.13
-$10.80
-90.5%
$1.04
-$10.89
-91.3%
$0.09
8.0%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.08
-$10.85
-90.9%
$0.96
-$10.97
-92.0%
$0.12
11.4%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.06
-$10.87
-91.1%
$1.00
-$10.93
-91.6%
$0.06
5.4%
—
NUKE
14.0%
$1.01
-$10.92
-91.5%
$0.99
-$10.94
-91.7%
$0.02
2.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.34086,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 1.0105,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:42.349218Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.34086,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 4.0145,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:12.174520Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.34086,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 1.1305,
"optimistic_value": 1.12,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T20:16:13.485553Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.34086,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 1.057,
"optimistic_value": 1.05,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:58.863223Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.34086,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 1.0835000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.08,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 0.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:34.790380Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.068172,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ed635da7e55",
"realistic_value": 26.304,
"optimistic_value": 26.22,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate",
"conservative_value": 23.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:47.162368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ed635da7e55.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.272688,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6730ed01353f",
"realistic_value": 10.9735,
"optimistic_value": 10.83,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom",
"conservative_value": 10.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:41:05.067709Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6730ed01353f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.068172,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a5e6018f632",
"realistic_value": 57.9445,
"optimistic_value": 57.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy",
"conservative_value": 55.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:57:42.344378Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5e6018f632.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.068172,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ce20dbe572e3",
"realistic_value": 49.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 49.88,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit",
"conservative_value": 43.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:04.028074Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ce20dbe572e3.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4b250e83f876de75be455b5f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "491598743580228230",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:06:03.300851Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "497228243054695061",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Well-Worn)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:06:03.300851Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "516368488726449302",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:02:35.622760Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "494976390476880294",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:02:35.622760Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "527627487623869064",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:46.852211Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "515242641501267145",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:02:35.622760Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-e8ce6f07d5e7",
"listing_id": "498353924436783559",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Caged (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Caged",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e8ce6f07d5e7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:02:35.622760Z"
},
{
"price": 3.35,
"skin_id": "skin-ea39a500354e",
"listing_id": "490472843632575183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red FragCam (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red FragCam",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea39a500354e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:23.517615Z"
},
{
"price": 3.6,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "493850543431629364",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:37.470608Z"
},
{
"price": 3.7,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "514116636506531238",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:37.470608Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:7+collection-set-weapons-iii:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Liquidation 14.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 14.0% $2.19 | $313.93 +1051.6% | $35.85 +31.5% | 22.5% | +287.2% | $27.26 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Liquidation 14.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 14.0% $6.50 | $313.93 +848.7% | $39.83 +20.4% | 22.5% | +232.0% | $33.09 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.21 | $313.93 +1554.0% | $24.97 +31.6% | 20.0% | +349.1% | $18.98 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 10.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 10.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 10.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 10.0% $26.30 Liquidation 12.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 12.0% $2.21 | $313.93 +778.9% | $46.74 +30.8% | 30.0% | +244.3% | $35.72 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.21 | $313.93 +595.0% | $57.62 +27.6% | 37.5% | +208.8% | $45.17 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 15.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 15.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 15.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 15.0% $26.30 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.19 | $313.93 +465.4% | $68.50 +23.4% | 30.0% | +180.3% | $55.52 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Heirloom 2.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 2.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 2.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 2.5% $26.30 Liquidation 18.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 18.0% $6.50 | $313.93 +1816.6% | $19.20 +17.2% | 28.0% | +290.4% | $16.38 | — |