The Genesis Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Focus
2x $1.51
Bullfrog
1x $1.61
Red Wing
3x $2.27
Broken Record
1x $2.41
Blue Fissure
1x $4.00
Crimson Web
2x $4.00
↓
Possible Outputs
Heirloom
7.5% $313.93
Copper Galaxy
7.5% $57.94
Titanium Bit
7.5% $49.92
Tread Plate
7.5% $26.30
Liquidation
14.0% $19.42
Cat Fight
14.0% $6.50
Max Win
$313.93 (+848.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$39.83 (+20.4%)
Win %
22.5%
Volatility
+241.2%
Cost
$33.09
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $33.09
Ask Price EV $39.83 (+20.4%)
Bid Price EV $33.77 (+2.1%)
Ask Profit $6.74 (+20.4%)
Bid Profit $0.68 (+2.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $6.05 (+18.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$6.74
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.68
Risk
Win Probability 22.5%
Loss Probability 77.5%
Best Case $313.93 (+848.7%)
Worst Case $6.09 (-81.6%)
Volatility +241.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$107.51
Avg Loss -$22.52
Bottom 5% Outcome $6.09 (-81.6%)
Std Dev $79.82
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 150h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Bullfrog
—
Factory New
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Broken Record
—
Factory New
$2.41 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$2.61 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Focus
—
Factory New
$2.62 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red Wing
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$4.00 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web
—
Field-Tested
$4.00 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web
—
Minimal Wear
$9.06 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 51M 52S //TOTAL COST $33.09 //ASK PRICE EV $39.83 //BID PRICE EV $33.77 //ASK PROFIT $6.74 (+20.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.68 (+2.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 22.5% //BEST CASE $313.93 //VOLATILITY +241.2% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
7.5%
$313.93
+$280.84
+848.7%
$251.97
+$218.88
+661.5%
$61.96
19.7%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$57.94
+$24.85
+75.1%
$55.32
+$22.23
+67.2%
$2.62
4.5%
—
BIG WIN
7.5%
$49.92
+$16.83
+50.9%
$43.25
+$10.16
+30.7%
$6.67
13.4%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$26.30
-$6.79
-20.5%
$23.55
-$9.54
-28.8%
$2.75
10.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$19.42
-$13.67
-41.3%
$16.07
-$17.02
-51.4%
$3.35
17.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$6.50
-$26.59
-80.4%
$6.35
-$26.74
-80.8%
$0.15
2.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$6.27
-$26.82
-81.1%
$6.21
-$26.88
-81.2%
$0.06
1.0%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$6.14
-$26.95
-81.5%
$6.12
-$26.97
-81.5%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$6.09
-$27.00
-81.6%
$6.07
-$27.02
-81.7%
$0.02
0.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-36|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-94f44ac08438",
"realistic_value": 6.27,
"optimistic_value": 6.27,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:53.826234Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-94f44ac08438.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-41345355b55a",
"realistic_value": 19.4155,
"optimistic_value": 19.37,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation",
"conservative_value": 16.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Liquidation (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:11:14.220331Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-41345355b55a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0befed15aba5",
"realistic_value": 6.5005,
"optimistic_value": 6.49,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight",
"conservative_value": 6.35,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:27.993028Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0befed15aba5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f58ac1d8b31c",
"realistic_value": 6.09,
"optimistic_value": 6.09,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Ocular",
"conservative_value": 6.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Ocular (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:11:53.779343Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f58ac1d8b31c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.06991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-822f252e3894",
"realistic_value": 6.1370000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Genesis Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Continuum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:47.985772Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-822f252e3894.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.013982000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ed635da7e55",
"realistic_value": 26.304,
"optimistic_value": 26.22,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate",
"conservative_value": 23.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:47.162368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ed635da7e55.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.055928000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6730ed01353f",
"realistic_value": 313.933,
"optimistic_value": 293.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom",
"conservative_value": 251.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:44:47.265430Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6730ed01353f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.013982000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a5e6018f632",
"realistic_value": 57.9445,
"optimistic_value": 57.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy",
"conservative_value": 55.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:57:42.344378Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5e6018f632.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.013982000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ce20dbe572e3",
"realistic_value": 49.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 49.88,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit",
"conservative_value": 43.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:04.028074Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ce20dbe572e3.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4b250e83f876de75be455b5f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "492724590627113649",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:08:34.139899Z"
},
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-8ec9dd302f30",
"listing_id": "515242641501200689",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Bullfrog (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Bullfrog",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8ec9dd302f30.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:55:53.155846Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "518620288313368768",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:29.922764Z"
},
{
"price": 2.41,
"skin_id": "skin-fb7ae83c1e81",
"listing_id": "521997988014612582",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Broken Record (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Broken Record",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb7ae83c1e81.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:28.841609Z"
},
{
"price": 2.61,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "511864836540596349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:29.922764Z"
},
{
"price": 2.62,
"skin_id": "skin-e051c197f5af",
"listing_id": "518620288314721612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Focus (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Focus",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e051c197f5af.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:08:34.139899Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-53b81168eea3",
"listing_id": "520872088107413652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-36",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red Wing (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Red Wing",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53b81168eea3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:29.922764Z"
},
{
"price": 4,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "526501535293799549",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:37.470608Z"
},
{
"price": 4,
"skin_id": "skin-5a5917ab52b0",
"listing_id": "514116688950726474",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5917ab52b0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:23.357921Z"
},
{
"price": 9.06,
"skin_id": "skin-5a5917ab52b0",
"listing_id": "516368436282001562",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5917ab52b0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:17.177416Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-36:7+collection-set-weapons-iii:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Liquidation 14.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 14.0% $2.19 | $313.93 +1051.6% | $35.85 +31.5% | 22.5% | +287.2% | $27.26 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Heirloom 7.5% $10.97 Liquidation 14.0% $4.01 Cat Fight 14.0% $1.13 | $57.94 +385.7% | $12.05 +1.0% | 22.5% | +146.8% | $11.93 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Genesis Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Liquidation 16.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 16.0% $2.21 | $313.93 +1554.0% | $24.97 +31.6% | 20.0% | +349.1% | $18.98 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×6+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 10.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 10.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 10.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 10.0% $26.30 Liquidation 12.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 12.0% $2.21 | $313.93 +778.9% | $46.74 +30.8% | 30.0% | +244.3% | $35.72 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Liquidation 10.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 10.0% $2.21 | $313.93 +595.0% | $57.62 +27.6% | 37.5% | +208.8% | $45.17 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×4+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 15.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 15.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 15.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 15.0% $26.30 Liquidation 8.0% $7.67 Cat Fight 8.0% $2.19 | $313.93 +465.4% | $68.50 +23.4% | 30.0% | +180.3% | $55.52 | — |
The Genesis Collection ×9+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Heirloom 2.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 2.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 2.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 2.5% $26.30 Liquidation 18.0% $19.42 Cat Fight 18.0% $6.50 | $313.93 +1816.6% | $19.20 +17.2% | 28.0% | +290.4% | $16.38 | — |