The Gamma Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Aerial
1x $0.43
Iron Clad
1x $0.47
Motorized
4x $0.18
Light Box
1x $0.21
Dark Sigil
1x $0.36
Irezumi
1x $0.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Phobos
4.0% $13.56
Reboot
4.0% $8.39
Aristocrat
4.0% $6.48
Chopper
4.0% $4.89
Etch Lord
16.0% $4.45
Block-18
16.0% $4.19
Max Win
$13.56 (+284.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.13 (+16.9%)
Win %
52.0%
Volatility
+68.2%
Cost
$3.53
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.53
Ask Price EV $4.13 (+16.9%)
Bid Price EV $3.75 (+6.2%)
Ask Profit $0.60 (+16.9%)
Bid Profit $0.22 (+6.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.38 (+10.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.60
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.22
Risk
Win Probability 52.0%
Loss Probability 48.0%
Best Case $13.56 (+284.0%)
Worst Case $1.95 (-44.7%)
Volatility +68.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 16.0%
Avg Win +$2.01
Avg Loss -$0.94
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.95 (-44.7%)
Std Dev $2.41
Avg Norm Float 0.1497
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 148h 24m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Aerial
—
Field-Tested
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Iron Clad
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 13S //TOTAL COST $3.53 //ASK PRICE EV $4.13 //BID PRICE EV $3.75 //ASK PROFIT $0.60 (+16.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.22 (+6.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.0% //BEST CASE $13.56 //VOLATILITY +68.2% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
4.0%
$13.56
+$10.03
+284.0%
$13.45
+$9.92
+281.0%
$0.11
0.8%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$8.39
+$4.86
+137.6%
$6.90
+$3.37
+95.5%
$1.49
17.7%
—
BIG WIN
4.0%
$6.48
+$2.95
+83.7%
$5.17
+$1.64
+46.5%
$1.31
20.3%
—
WIN
4.0%
$4.89
+$1.36
+38.5%
$4.00
+$0.47
+13.3%
$0.89
18.2%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$4.45
+$0.92
+26.0%
$3.86
+$0.33
+9.3%
$0.59
13.2%
—
WIN
16.0%
$4.19
+$0.66
+18.7%
$3.88
+$0.35
+9.9%
$0.31
7.4%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$4.18
+$0.65
+18.3%
$4.03
+$0.50
+14.2%
$0.15
3.5%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$3.16
-$0.37
-10.4%
$2.85
-$0.68
-19.3%
$0.31
9.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$2.66
-$0.87
-24.7%
$2.60
-$0.93
-26.3%
$0.06
2.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.95
-$1.58
-44.7%
$1.85
-$1.68
-47.6%
$0.10
5.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-13|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 2.6585,
"optimistic_value": 2.62,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:48.838567Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.10060656250000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 4.4475,
"optimistic_value": 4.43,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 3.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:47.747830Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 3.1645,
"optimistic_value": 3.07,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:25.632283Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0926680964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.951,
"optimistic_value": 1.93,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:31.595572Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.09882840000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d88fbf7ef8e1",
"realistic_value": 6.483,
"optimistic_value": 6.35,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Aristocrat",
"conservative_value": 5.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AUG | Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:40.020455Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d88fbf7ef8e1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.059896000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78882aeeb9a7",
"realistic_value": 13.556,
"optimistic_value": 13.5,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Phobos",
"conservative_value": 13.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T14:37:58.702451Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78882aeeb9a7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.08984400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-31a18fdabe59",
"realistic_value": 4.889,
"optimistic_value": 4.84,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Chopper",
"conservative_value": 4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T20:17:32.133949Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-31a18fdabe59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1b8d8987488f",
"realistic_value": 8.389,
"optimistic_value": 8.2,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Reboot",
"conservative_value": 6.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Reboot (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:25.050808Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1b8d8987488f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.14974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-33872c48a8e5",
"realistic_value": 4.1765,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Limelight",
"conservative_value": 4.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:26.679051Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33872c48a8e5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4aab858f7d3e4869dfc8d789",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-f7201f00d647",
"listing_id": "503983537176298891",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aerial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SG 553 | Aerial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f7201f00d647.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:24:33.453472Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-6736df07aec5",
"listing_id": "516368488725525650",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Iron Clad (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Iron Clad",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6736df07aec5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.790515Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "525375740885225203",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:12:12.177703Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "518620288314777880",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:32.223322Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "523123940968925206",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:04.876770Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "503983642532458279",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:04.876770Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:04.876770Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "505108692508590428",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:40.578059Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "630083017716474510",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:34:04.006438Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "636838417157749708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:14.404922Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-13:2+collection-set-community-33:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Phobos 4.0% $9.84 Aristocrat 4.0% $6.48 Chopper 4.0% $4.89 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Reboot 4.0% $3.51 Limelight 4.0% $2.62 | $9.84 +298.3% | $2.93 +18.6% | 36.0% | +68.2% | $2.47 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 6.0% $13.56 Reboot 6.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 6.0% $6.48 Chopper 6.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Limelight 6.0% $4.20 | $13.56 +253.9% | $4.58 +19.5% | 58.0% | +63.7% | $3.83 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 8.0% $13.56 Reboot 8.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 8.0% $6.48 Chopper 8.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Limelight 8.0% $4.20 | $13.56 +218.2% | $5.00 +17.3% | 44.0% | +62.3% | $4.26 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 2.0% $13.56 Reboot 2.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 2.0% $6.48 Chopper 2.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +317.1% | $3.71 +14.1% | 46.0% | +50.5% | $3.25 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 10.0% $13.56 Reboot 10.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 10.0% $6.48 Chopper 10.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Limelight 10.0% $4.20 | $13.56 +183.6% | $5.41 +13.3% | 40.0% | +58.8% | $4.78 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Desolate Space  3.3% $46.08 Black Lotus  30.0% $37.06 Imperial Dragon  3.3% $28.30 Bloodsport  3.3% $17.09 Jawbreaker  30.0% $14.90 Olympus  30.0% $14.69 | $46.08 +127.1% | $23.04 +13.6% | 36.7% | +53.9% | $20.29 | — |