The Gamma Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Iron Clad
1x $1.27
Aerial
1x $2.24
Motorized
1x $0.35
Dezastre
3x $0.48
Irezumi
1x $0.59
Light Box
1x $0.76
↓
Possible Outputs
Reboot
4.0% $31.83
Aristocrat
4.0% $15.36
Limelight
4.0% $14.43
Phobos
4.0% $13.56
Etch Lord
16.0% $13.06
Chopper
4.0% $9.82
Max Win
$31.83 (+194.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$10.35 (-4.2%)
Win %
32.0%
Volatility
+50.0%
Cost
$10.81
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $10.81
Ask Price EV $10.35 (-4.2%)
Bid Price EV $9.26 (-14.4%)
Ask Profit $-0.46 (-4.2%)
Bid Profit $-1.55 (-14.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.10 (+10.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.46
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.55
Risk
Win Probability 32.0%
Loss Probability 68.0%
Best Case $31.83 (+194.5%)
Worst Case $4.21 (-61.0%)
Volatility +50.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 32.0%
Avg Win +$5.12
Avg Loss -$3.08
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.21 (-61.0%)
Std Dev $5.40
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 149h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Iron Clad
—
Minimal Wear
$1.27 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Aerial
—
Factory New
$2.24 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Minimal Wear
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 59M 34S //TOTAL COST $10.81 //ASK PRICE EV $10.35 //BID PRICE EV $9.26 //ASK PROFIT $-0.46 (-4.2%) //BID PROFIT $-1.55 (-14.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 32.0% //BEST CASE $31.83 //VOLATILITY +50.0% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$31.83
+$21.02
+194.5%
$29.96
+$19.15
+177.2%
$1.87
5.9%
—
WIN
4.0%
$15.36
+$4.55
+42.1%
$12.39
+$1.58
+14.6%
$2.97
19.3%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$14.43
+$3.62
+33.5%
$11.70
+$0.89
+8.2%
$2.73
18.9%
—
WIN
4.0%
$13.56
+$2.75
+25.4%
$13.45
+$2.64
+24.4%
$0.11
0.8%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$13.06
+$2.25
+20.8%
$12.03
+$1.22
+11.3%
$1.03
7.9%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$9.82
-$0.99
-9.1%
$8.59
-$2.22
-20.5%
$1.23
12.6%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$9.41
-$1.41
-13.0%
$7.86
-$2.95
-27.3%
$1.54
16.4%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$8.90
-$1.91
-17.7%
$7.77
-$3.04
-28.1%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$7.89
-$2.92
-27.0%
$7.43
-$3.38
-31.3%
$0.46
5.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$4.21
-$6.60
-61.0%
$3.74
-$7.07
-65.4%
$0.47
11.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-13|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:46.796930Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0470178125,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.405,
"optimistic_value": 9.37,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:50.189463Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0433078228,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.211,
"optimistic_value": 4.19,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:16:55.639696Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.0461868,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d88fbf7ef8e1",
"realistic_value": 15.3565,
"optimistic_value": 15.29,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Aristocrat",
"conservative_value": 12.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AUG | Aristocrat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:14:57.675711Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d88fbf7ef8e1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.027992000000000003,
"output_skin_id": "skin-78882aeeb9a7",
"realistic_value": 13.556,
"optimistic_value": 13.5,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Phobos",
"conservative_value": 13.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AWP | Phobos (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T14:37:58.702451Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78882aeeb9a7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.041988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-31a18fdabe59",
"realistic_value": 9.8235,
"optimistic_value": 9.54,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Chopper",
"conservative_value": 8.59,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:15.853610Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-31a18fdabe59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1b8d8987488f",
"realistic_value": 31.831,
"optimistic_value": 29.99,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Reboot",
"conservative_value": 29.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Reboot (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:18.254098Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1b8d8987488f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-33872c48a8e5",
"realistic_value": 14.4305,
"optimistic_value": 14,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Limelight",
"conservative_value": 11.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Gamma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Limelight (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:04:21.428932Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33872c48a8e5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_4aab858f7d3e4869dfc8d789",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.27,
"skin_id": "skin-6736df07aec5",
"listing_id": "496101493264319087",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P250 | Iron Clad (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Iron Clad",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6736df07aec5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:37.215799Z"
},
{
"price": 2.24,
"skin_id": "skin-f7201f00d647",
"listing_id": "496101493265031383",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-13",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Aerial (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Aerial",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f7201f00d647.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:34:54.731845Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:06.698916Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "636838417157749708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:46.566537Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "625577443252700102",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:08.419395Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:46.566537Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "622201718386433724",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:28:08.633894Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:32.441390Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "519746022669746780",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:34.599367Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "528753335311947405",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:01.118730Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-13:2+collection-set-community-33:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Phobos 4.0% $9.84 Aristocrat 4.0% $6.48 Chopper 4.0% $4.89 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Reboot 4.0% $3.51 Limelight 4.0% $2.62 | $9.84 +298.3% | $2.93 +18.6% | 36.0% | +68.2% | $2.47 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 4.0% $13.56 Reboot 4.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 4.0% $6.48 Chopper 4.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +284.0% | $4.13 +16.9% | 52.0% | +60.4% | $3.53 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 6.0% $13.56 Reboot 6.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 6.0% $6.48 Chopper 6.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +250.3% | $4.54 +17.4% | 58.0% | +63.4% | $3.87 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 8.0% $13.56 Reboot 8.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 8.0% $6.48 Chopper 8.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 12.0% $4.45 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +220.5% | $4.96 +17.4% | 44.0% | +63.1% | $4.23 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 10.0% $13.56 Reboot 10.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 10.0% $6.48 Chopper 10.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +191.5% | $5.39 +15.9% | 40.0% | +60.6% | $4.65 | — |
The Gamma Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Phobos 2.0% $13.56 Reboot 2.0% $8.39 Aristocrat 2.0% $6.48 Chopper 2.0% $4.89 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 | $13.56 +319.7% | $3.70 +14.7% | 46.0% | +50.9% | $3.23 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Gamma Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear ST | Desolate Space  16.7% $71.39 Bloodsport  16.7% $53.46 Black Lotus  16.7% $37.06 Imperial Dragon  16.7% $28.30 Jawbreaker  16.7% $27.10 Olympus  16.7% $14.55 | $71.39 +113.9% | $38.64 +15.8% | 50.0% | +56.3% | $33.37 | — |