The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Ensnared
2x $0.15
Scrawl
1x $0.16
Poultrygeist
1x $0.28
Necro Jr.
2x $0.28
Foresight
1x $0.31
Lifted Spirits
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
6.7% $15.94
Glitched Paint
6.7% $7.07
Bleeding Edge
6.7% $5.34
Ticket to Hell
16.0% $1.67
Dream Glade
16.0% $1.64
Night Terror
16.0% $1.58
Max Win
$15.94 (+387.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.04 (-7.1%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+117.0%
Cost
$3.27
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.27
Ask Price EV $3.04 (-7.1%)
Bid Price EV $2.79 (-14.7%)
Ask Profit $-0.23 (-7.1%)
Bid Profit $-0.48 (-14.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.25 (+7.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.23
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.48
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $15.94 (+387.5%)
Worst Case $1.03 (-68.4%)
Volatility +117.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$6.18
Avg Loss -$1.84
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.03 (-68.4%)
Std Dev $3.83
Avg Norm Float 0.1485
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 141h 37m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Minimal Wear
$0.82 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 31M 34S //TOTAL COST $3.27 //ASK PRICE EV $3.04 //BID PRICE EV $2.79 //ASK PROFIT $-0.23 (-7.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.48 (-14.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +117.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
6.7%
$15.94
+$12.67
+387.5%
$14.54
+$11.27
+344.6%
$1.40
8.8%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$7.07
+$3.80
+116.1%
$6.21
+$2.94
+89.9%
$0.86
12.1%
—
BIG WIN
6.7%
$5.34
+$2.07
+63.3%
$5.14
+$1.87
+57.2%
$0.20
3.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.67
-$1.60
-48.9%
$1.44
-$1.83
-56.0%
$0.23
13.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.64
-$1.63
-49.9%
$1.62
-$1.65
-50.5%
$0.02
1.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.58
-$1.69
-51.7%
$1.43
-$1.84
-56.3%
$0.15
9.5%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.25
-$2.02
-61.8%
$1.16
-$2.11
-64.5%
$0.09
7.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.03
-$2.24
-68.4%
$0.99
-$2.28
-69.7%
$0.04
4.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.14848,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.6369999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.63,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:40.472765Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.103936,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 1.58,
"optimistic_value": 1.58,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 1.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:58:34.524448Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0994816,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 1.2505,
"optimistic_value": 1.24,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 1.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:41:59.654543Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.1128448,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 1.67,
"optimistic_value": 1.67,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:32.948871Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.07424,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.0345,
"optimistic_value": 1.01,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:01.495545Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.11136,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.0994816,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 7.067,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:34.461266Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.089088,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.338500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 5.23,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:26:55.961345Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_484dfaa35522d8727a116f51",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "490472738292937491",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:45:31.454769Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "511864091800288269",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:45:31.454769Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "521997935570639898",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:37:57.244708Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-2c6b935bb4eb",
"listing_id": "525375688036345147",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c6b935bb4eb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:13.831921Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "515242588554856933",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:56.555570Z"
},
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "519746188257835928",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:56.555570Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "643593744688088905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:49.490034Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "491598690699562262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:02.325686Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:41.092385Z"
},
{
"price": 0.82,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "527627435179438172",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:42:10.295519Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:8+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.34 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.67 Night Terror 16.0% $1.58 Space Cat 16.0% $1.25 | $15.94 +627.9% | $2.92 +33.2% | 20.0% | +169.8% | $2.19 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.59 Night Terror 4.0% $1.58 Space Cat 4.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $1.03 | $15.94 +167.0% | $7.85 +31.5% | 53.3% | +82.3% | $5.97 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.34 Night Terror 2.0% $1.58 Space Cat 2.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 2.0% $1.03 | $15.94 +130.7% | $8.63 +24.8% | 60.0% | +69.7% | $6.91 | — |