The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Necro Jr.
2x $0.30
Foresight
2x $0.31
Lifted Spirits
2x $0.34
Scrawl
1x $0.71
Spirit Board
1x $2.72
Shredded
1x $1.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
6.7% $33.42
Glitched Paint
6.7% $17.45
Bleeding Edge
6.7% $16.98
Dream Glade
16.0% $8.61
Ticket to Hell
16.0% $4.90
Night Terror
16.0% $4.00
Max Win
$33.42 (+151.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.27 (-37.7%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+61.5%
Cost
$13.27
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $13.27
Ask Price EV $8.27 (-37.7%)
Bid Price EV $8.03 (-39.5%)
Ask Profit $-5.00 (-37.7%)
Bid Profit $-5.24 (-39.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.24 (+1.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$5.00
Bid Slippage Buffer -$5.24
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+151.8%)
Worst Case $2.68 (-79.8%)
Volatility +61.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$9.35
Avg Loss -$8.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.68 (-79.8%)
Std Dev $8.16
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 142h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.30 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Factory New
$0.88 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$2.49 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$2.72 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 31M 00S //TOTAL COST $13.27 //ASK PRICE EV $8.27 //BID PRICE EV $8.03 //ASK PROFIT $-5.00 (-37.7%) //BID PROFIT $-5.24 (-39.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +61.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
6.7%
$33.42
+$20.15
+151.8%
$31.48
+$18.21
+137.2%
$1.94
5.8%
—
WIN
6.7%
$17.45
+$4.18
+31.5%
$16.69
+$3.42
+25.8%
$0.76
4.4%
—
WIN
6.7%
$16.98
+$3.71
+27.9%
$16.48
+$3.21
+24.2%
$0.50
2.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$8.61
-$4.66
-35.1%
$8.53
-$4.74
-35.7%
$0.08
0.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$4.90
-$8.37
-63.0%
$4.89
-$8.38
-63.1%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$4.00
-$9.27
-69.9%
$3.97
-$9.30
-70.1%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$3.22
-$10.05
-75.7%
$3.19
-$10.08
-76.0%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.68
-$10.59
-79.8%
$2.67
-$10.60
-79.9%
$0.01
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06981,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 8.607,
"optimistic_value": 8.6,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 8.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:31:57.910192Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.048866999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 4,
"optimistic_value": 4,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:34:47.458927Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0467727,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:10.047266Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0530556,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 4.9035,
"optimistic_value": 4.9,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 4.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:36:59.300896Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.034905,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.68,
"optimistic_value": 2.68,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:48.764813Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.0523575,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.0467727,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.451500000000003,
"optimistic_value": 17.42,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:45.733892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06666666666666667,
"output_float": 0.041886,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_484dfaa35522d8727a116f51",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.3,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "519746188257835928",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:56.555570Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "643593744688088905",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:49.490034Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "491598690699562262",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:02.325686Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "598557211247274759",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:44:43.767844Z"
},
{
"price": 0.88,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "499479989896070437",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:11.580233Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "499479824341149061",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:45.096325Z"
},
{
"price": 2.49,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "497228137695537017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:49:29.764565Z"
},
{
"price": 2.72,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "497228137696833341",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:46:52.868524Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "506235389468941512",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:39:33.801466Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:24.563657Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:8+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.34 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $1.67 Night Terror 16.0% $1.58 Space Cat 16.0% $1.25 | $15.94 +627.9% | $2.92 +33.2% | 20.0% | +169.8% | $2.19 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.59 Night Terror 4.0% $1.58 Space Cat 4.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 4.0% $1.03 | $15.94 +167.0% | $7.85 +31.5% | 53.3% | +82.3% | $5.97 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.10 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.34 Night Terror 2.0% $1.58 Space Cat 2.0% $1.25 Zombie Offensive 2.0% $1.03 | $15.94 +130.7% | $8.63 +24.8% | 60.0% | +69.7% | $6.91 | — |